• The Lions take the top slot: Detroit finished the year first in overall PFF grade and is the best-coached team in the league.
• The Steelers are in peril: Pittsburgh started 10-3 but is now amid a four-game skid, during which both the offense and defense have been bad.
• 2025 NFL Draft season is here: Try PFF's best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2025's top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.
Estimated Reading Time: 15 minutes
The list of teams that could win Super Bowl 59 is down to 14.
While any one of those teams theoretically has as good a shot as any to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, the reality is that some squads are simply far superior to the other playoff contenders.
Based on their regular-season performance, team talent level, coaching and experience, below is the order of the teams with the best-to-worst shot of claiming victory in New Orleans on Feb. 9.
1. Detroit Lions
The Lions are the No. 1 team in PFF’s Power Rankings and the highest-graded team in football, which is reflected in their 15-2 record. Despite battling a rash of injuries on defense, Detroit has generally looked unstoppable for most of this season due to its strong balance and outstanding coaching staff.
Offensively, the Lions are arguably the league’s best unit, ranking second in EPA per play and first in success rate. The combination of elite playcalling from Ben Johnson, a multi-faceted attack (second in both passing and rushing EPA per play) and a loaded roster makes this group unbelievable. Even though Detroit’s defense slid to 13th in success rate from Week 12 onward, this group flashed its gelling in Week 18 by shutting down the Vikings — and it will only get healthier.
All the Lions need to do to reach their first Super Bowl is to win two games in Ford Field, a building in which they went 7-2 during the regular season. After improving its roster following last year’s NFC Championship run, it would be difficult to pick against Detroit to not only reach this year’s Super Bowl but to win it.
2. Kansas City Chiefs
So much for that “fraudulent” 9-0 start. Yes, some luck was involved early on, but the Chiefs played a cleaner brand of football during their final four games with starters — and nobody will want to face them (and their title panache) come playoff time.
Even though Kansas City’s offense is only 12th in EPA per play and 16th in success rate, the Chiefs still have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce, who are top-16 in PFF grade in the last three years of postseason play. The team's elite interior offensive line, other skill-position standouts and Andy Reid’s creativity make this offense scary in its own right. Although Steve Spagnuolo’s defense didn’t fare as well — finishing 14th in EPA allowed per play and 21st in success rate allowed — it still has the likes of Chris Jones, Trent McDuffie, George Karlaftis and Jaylen Watson, plus it has been strong in the last two postseasons.
The biggest concerns for the Chiefs going into the playoffs will be red-zone offense and pass protection. But from Weeks 13-17, Kansas City played better inside the opponents' 20-yard line, generating a 43.8% success rate (7th) while converting 55.6% of drives into touchdowns (19th). With Kansas City only needing to win two games at Arrowhead Stadium — where Mahomes has lost only twice in the playoffs — it’s probably foolish to bet against the Chiefs.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
What makes the Eagles so frightening is the multiple ways they can win. Philadelphia is the only team in the league to rank in the top six in both offensive and defensive EPA per play, and it is just dotted with talent up and down its roster.
On offense, Kellen Moore’s group boasts the third-highest-graded offensive line, powered by Jordan Mailata — the highest-graded player in all of football. The Birds can gash you via Saquon Barkley and the run game, where they’re third in EPA per play and second in yards before contact per attempt, and they can just as easily punish corners with a pass game featuring A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, who both rank top-13 among receivers in PFF receiving grade. Meanwhile, Philly’s defense is elite at all three levels, ranking first in success rate.
Ghosts of last season’s wild-card exit in Tampa Bay could linger, but this Eagles team feels like it’s in a significantly better place than a year ago. A limitation could be Jalen Hurts and his play under pressure — where his 43.5 PFF grade is 25th out of 30 qualifiers — but Philly has every opportunity to at least reach the NFC Championship.
4. Baltimore Ravens
Real doubts started to creep in about the legitimacy of the Ravens late in the year, but those were mostly squashed courtesy of a four-game winning streak to close out the season. With generational talent on offense and a significantly improved defense, Baltimore is definitely a real title contender.
Not enough can be said about Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, who are both the highest-graded players at their respective positions — and two of the three highest-graded offensive players in the league. Their excellence, combined with a receiving corps that’s second in receiving grade, has fueled the NFL's most efficient offense. Moreover, the Ravens defense patched deep foundational leaks around midseason: since Week 10, Baltimore is second in EPA allowed per play and ninth in explosive passes surrendered.
How well the Ravens’ offensive line performs will be critical, as the group had issues early in the year and ended only 19th in overall grade. Skepticism about Jackson in the playoffs, where he’s recorded only a 62.8 career overall PFF grade, also won’t be erased until he performs more consistently or even reaches the Super Bowl. Even then, this multi-faceted and talented Ravens team is highly formidable.
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5. Buffalo Bills
Some might view this a bit low for a team that’s 13-4 and the AFC’s No. 2 seed, but the Bills have some concerns that could loom large come postseason.
Josh Allen and Buffalo’s offense generally isn’t one. The MVP candidate fueled an offense that ranks third in EPA per play, sitting top-four in both facets of play. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady’s versatility in formations, playmakers in James Cook, Khalil Shakir and more and a strong tackle duo should be enough to compete for a title.
Even with Gregory Rousseau (83.1 overall PFF grade) and Christian Benford (82.8 PFF coverage grade), Buffalo’s defense can cause some worry. Since Week 10, the Bills rank 19th in EPA per play, 25th in success rate and 22nd in first downs allowed. A lack of talent at linebacker and a secondary, which ranks only 21st in team coverage grade, may unfortunately contribute further to seemingly never-ending playoff disappointments.
6. Minnesota Vikings
Going 14-3, only to be ranked No. 6 on this list, might not seem fair to the Vikings. At the same time, Minnesota’s path to the Super Bowl as a wild-card entrant will be daunting, and uncertainties now affect both sides of the ball.
Sam Darnold has been one of the NFL’s breakout players this season and finished the regular season ranked 10th in PFF passing grade. But in arguably his biggest test to date, Darnold performed at his worst, posting a season-low 44.5 PFF passing grade against a Lions defense down several impact starters. Darnold’s 3.6% turnover-worthy play rate — tied for the highest among any quarterback with 500-plus dropbacks — and lack of postseason experience are troublesome.
Minnesota’s defense has been one of the most effective by advanced metrics all season, sitting third in EPA per play and sixth in success rate. Yet the Vikings possess only the 16th-best coverage grade and are 17th in explosive passing play rate allowed since Week 12, meaning their blitz-heavy defense can get carved up if opposing offenses handle extra rushers well.
Will Kevin O’Connell’s elite playcalling, an unbelievable receiving corps and a dominant edge-rushing tandem propel the Vikings to a deep road playoff run, or will Darnold and a subpar secondary limit Minnesota’s wildly impressive season? That question feels like a genuine toss-up, although the Vikings are unquestionably better than a No. 5 seed.
7. Green Bay Packers
With strong units on each side of the ball, the Packers could have the ingredients for a deep run, but they’ll need to prove their mettle against better competition.
Green Bay’s offense was generally strong for most of this year, finishing eighth in EPA per play and 11th in success rate. Josh Jacobs (90.6 PFF rushing grade) offers tremendous balance to Jordan Love and a deep receiving group. Add Matt LaFleur’s ingenious playcalling, and the Packers offense won’t allow many defensive coordinators to sleep.
Additionally, Jeff Hafley’s defense showed signs of promise in his first season, ranking fourth in EPA allowed per play but 24th in success rate. Green Bay has game-changers at all three levels in Rashan Gary (47 pressures), Edgerrin Cooper (84.0 overall PFF grade) and Xavier McKinney (90.0 PFF coverage grade).
So, why are the Packers only No. 7? Not having Christian Watson (torn ACL) and Jaire Alexander (shoulder) is a big blow, and the team’s pass rush has been a problem all season. Secondary depth could also be alarming, with only one corner (Carrington Valentine) generating above a 63.0 PFF coverage grade.
Considering that the Packers went only 2-5 against playoff teams, LaFleur’s squad must prove it can contend with the conference’s elites. Then again, Green Bay shocked the world in the wild-card round last year and is capable of doing it yet again.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs turned around what looked like a wayward season to win their fourth consecutive NFC South, but they’ll generally need to rely on their high-powered offense if they want to make a run.
In his first year with Todd Bowles, offensive coordinator Liam Coen may have performed even better than Dave Canales did in the same position. Tampa Bay’s offense is fourth in passing EPA per play and eighth in rushing EPA per play. A whopping eighth regular contributors recorded a 73.0-plus overall PFF grade in the regular season, highlighted by Bucky Irving (90.6) and Mike Evans (89.0).
Although the Buccaneers had early problems on defense, they’ve course-corrected to rank fourth in EPA per play and second in success rate since Week 10. The caveat is that that stretch of games was almost entirely against poor offenses and still had troubles.
Tampa Bay still faces challenges in key areas, particularly with their pass rush, where the team’s edge and interior defenders rank 16th in pass-rush win rate, and in coverage, where their secondary holds the 16th-best team PFF coverage grade.
The Buccaneers have shown they can compete, notching wins over strong teams like the Lions, Eagles (albeit an injury-depleted roster), and Chargers. They’ve also advanced to the divisional round in three of the past four seasons. Reaching that stage again is well within their reach, but they’ll need Baker Mayfield to cut down on mistakes—his 25 turnover-worthy plays lead the league—and their secondary to solidify as Antoine Winfield Jr. makes his return.
9. Los Angeles Rams
Few teams enter the playoffs as hot as the Rams, who were 9-2 in their last 11 games with starters playing. Even then, this team has defensive deficiencies that appear hard to overcome.
Sean McVay’s offense is, yet again, a force to be reckoned with — especially with the trio of Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp on the field together. Since Nacua returned in Week 8, LA ranks 10th in EPA per play and fifth in explosive pass rate. Add in Kyren Williams (74.0 PFF rushing grade) and a solid offensive line, and the Rams will score points.
But the defense is where the concerns arise for the Rams. LA is only 27th in EPA allowed per play, 23rd in success rate allowed, 23rd in team coverage grade and 27th in missed tackles. Even with Jared Verse (77 pressures) spearheading a good pass-rushing defensive line, the Rams’ secondary hasn’t covered well all year.
Will Stafford stay well protected — where he’s been much better than under pressure — and propel an offensive explosion enough to account for a weaker defense? Los Angeles feels only as likely as far as its offense will take it, but even that might not be enough.
10. Washington Commanders
For the Commanders to be in this position this fast is remarkable, but their odds of reaching New Orleans aren’t very high — just 5%, per PFF ELO rankings.
Jayden Daniels emerged as one of the NFL’s brightest young stars this year, shining as a passer — where he ranks fourth in PFF passing grade — and as a runner — where his 88.2 PFF rushing grade is fourth among qualified quarterbacks. Terry McLaurin (82.2 PFF receiving grade) was excellent yet again, and Brian Robinson (plus Daniels) powered a top-five rushing offense by several advanced metrics.
However, Dan Quinn’s defense wasn’t nearly as sharp in 2024. Bobby Wagner (89.9 overall PFF grade) is the only Commanders starter graded above 70.0 overall. Washington sits 27th in team coverage grade and 26th in pass-rush win rate among its edge defenders and defensive linemen.
Daniels’ movie-like rookie year could very well continue by granting the Commanders their first playoff win since the 2005 season, but getting past the divisional round would be hard to envision.
11. Los Angeles Chargers
Much like the Commanders, the Chargers surpassed their preseason 9.0 over/under win total, reaching the playoffs in Jim Harbaugh’s first year. However, this team has flaws that will likely prove fatal.
Justin Herbert turned in arguably his best career campaign to date, generating a 90.8 PFF passing grade (3rd) and a 91.7 overall PFF grade (3rd) with a 6.1% big-time throw rate (4th). Even with Herbert’s near-flawless play and the emergence of Ladd McConkey (81.2 PFF receiving grade), Los Angeles’ offense hasn’t been overly dynamic. The Chargers are only 13th in EPA per play, 18th in success rate and 15th in average yards per play.
LA’s bread and butter was its defense for most of the year, a unit that finished the regular season fifth in EPA per play and 10th in success rate. But initial dominance was stymied by bad performances against elite offenses, such as versus Baltimore, Cincinnati and Tampa Bay.
Harbaugh’s bunch should be able to reach the divisional round for the first time since 2018, landing a favorable matchup with the Texans. But unless Herbert goes on a sustained heater and the defense pitches near shutouts, the Chargers feel shorthanded.
12. Pittsburgh Steelers
After starting 10-3 with wins over teams like the Commanders, Broncos and Chargers, Pittsburgh felt like a legitimate AFC title threat. Then everything went downhill in the final four weeks of the season, and it doesn’t seem salvageable.
Pittsburgh’s offense looked better with Russell Wilson at the helm, but efficiency and production have both been a struggle against elite defenses. Since Week 14, the Steelers are 31st in EPA per play, 25th in success rate and 30th in average yards per play. You know things are going awry when George Pickens, far and away the team’s best receiver, turns in a game like he did in a pivotal Week 18: seven targets, one catch, 0 yards, two drops, 42.4 PFF receiving grade.
What only compounds the Steelers’ woes is a defense that has generally flatlined during the team’s biggest games. Over the last four games of the year, Pittsburgh has ranked 24th in EPA per play, 27th in success rate and 30th in explosive passes allowed. This team still has prodigious talent, especially along its defensive line, but problems with communication (especially on motion) and missed tackles have been devastating.
Wilson has proven his postseason mettle in years past, and nobody wants to see Cameron Heyward or T.J. Watt on the other side of the line of scrimmage in a win-or-go-home game. But given Pittsburgh’s prolonged playoff struggles — not winning a game since the 2016 season — and how this team collapsed, even beating the Ravens would be a real surprise.
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13. Denver Broncos
All praise is in order for Sean Payton mercifully ending Denver’s nine-year postseason drought, but the Broncos aren’t in a strong position to make a ton of noise.
Denver’s defense was one of the best in the NFL in the regular season. The Broncos are second in EPA per play, first in success rate and first in touchdown drive percentage allowed. Pat Surtain II (87.4 PFF coverage grade) is the headliner, but this talent is deep, as evidenced by four players racking up 53-plus pressures.
Payton’s offense is the major concern going into the wild-card round. The Broncos finished the regular season 17th in EPA per play, 20th in success rate and 19th in first downs gained. Bo Nix (76.4 overall PFF grade) played better than anticipated, but his 72.8 PFF passing grade still ranks 20th among qualifiers. Even behind one of the more unsung offensive lines in football, Denver is 16th in average rushing yards before contact, as no starting ‘back eclipsed a 71.0 PFF rushing grade.
For the Broncos to beat the Bills, they’ll need Nix to make high-level throws down the field while leaning heavily on a well-coached defense. Making a run as a No. 7 seed is daunting enough, but a lack of offensive playmakers and a rookie QB doesn’t bode well.
14. Houston Texans
After entering the 2024 season as one of the NFL’s real Super Bowl contenders, the Texans turned in an extremely disjointed and disappointing season. Yes, Houston won the AFC South for the second straight year, but this team hasn’t looked cohesive all year.
Instead of ascending into one of the premier offenses in football, Bobby Slowik’s group was maligned for pretty much all of the season. Injuries to Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell didn’t help, but a bad run game (22nd in EPA per play) and inferior play from C.J. Stroud (45th percentile in avoiding negative plays) have sunk Houston. Throw in an interior offensive line that’s the second-lowest-graded in the NFL, and you get an offense stuck in neutral.
DeMeco Ryans’ defense was strong for most of the year, ranking sixth in EPA allowed per play and fourth in success rate allowed. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. combined for 117 pressures, wrecking games all year, while Derek Stingley Jr. (74.9 PFF coverage grade) holds the league lead in lowest catch rate allowed and passer rating when targeted. Still, four of Houston’s top-seven players in coverage snaps generated a PFF coverage grade below 63.0.
The odds that Stroud and the Texans offense finally kick things in gear after 19 weeks are, unfortunately, very low. This year alone, Houston lost to the Titans and Jets while going 1-5 against playoff teams (with one of those losses a five-interception game from Jared Goff). It’s now difficult to project a lot of confidence onto what seemed like an extremely promising team going into the season.
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