NFL playoff picture ahead of Week 16

• Kansas City Chiefs eyeing home-field advantage: The Chiefs have a 75% chance of securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC, according to PFF's simulations.

• A massive week for the Seahawks: The Seattle Seahawks have a 51% chance of making the playoffs with a Week 16 win, but their chances will fall to just 21% with a loss.

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Estimated reading time: 10 minutes

The current situation ahead of Week 16

Current AFC playoff standings

1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-1)
2. Buffalo Bills (11-3)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4)
4. Houston Texans (9-5)
5. Baltimore Ravens (9-5)
6. Denver Broncos (9-5)
7. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)

Current NFC playoff standings

1. Detroit Lions (12-2)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-2)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6)
4. Los Angeles Rams (8-6)
5. Minnesota Vikings (12-2)
6. Green Bay Packers (10-4)
7. Washington Commanders (9-5)

If these standings held up, we would welcome two new AFC teams (the Broncos and Chargers) and two new NFC teams (the Commanders and Vikings) to the playoffs.

The projections

Naturally, it’s unlikely the playoff picture will remain constant over the remainder of the season. And that’s why it makes sense to look at the projected playoff picture — the estimated chances PFF gives each team to make the playoffs.

The following charts show the projected playoff chances for each team alongside the playoff leverage, i.e., how the playoff chances would change with a win or loss.

The logos show the current playoff chances. The points to the right of the logos indicate the chances after a win, and the points to the left indicate the chances after a loss.