NFL playoff picture ahead of Week 11

• Kansas City Chiefs eyeing home-field advantage: The Chiefs have an 80% chance of securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC, according to PFF's simulations.

• A massive week for the Packers: The Green Bay Packers have an 80% chance of making the playoffs with a Week 11 win, but their chances will fall to just 48% with a loss.

• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all of our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer, and more. Sign up now!

Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

The current situation ahead of Week 11

Current AFC playoff standings

1. Kansas City Chiefs (9-0)
2. Buffalo Bills (8-2)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)
4. Houston Texans (6-4)
5. Baltimore Ravens (7-3)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (6-3)
7. Denver Broncos (5-5)

Current NFC playoff standings

1. Detroit Lions (8-1)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (7-2)
3. Atlanta Falcons (6-4)
4. Arizona Cardinals (6-4)
5. Minnesota Vikings (7-2)
6. Washington Commanders (7-3)
7. Green Bay Packers (6-3)

If these standings held up, we would welcome two new AFC teams (the Broncos and Chargers) and four new NFC teams (the Commanders, Falcons, Cardinals and Vikings) to the playoffs.

The projections

Naturally, it’s unlikely the playoff picture will remain constant over the remainder of the season. And that’s why it makes sense to look at the projected playoff picture — the estimated chances PFF gives each team to make the playoffs.

The following charts show the projected playoff chances for each team alongside the playoff leverage, i.e., how the playoff chances would change with a win or loss.

The logos show the current playoff chances. The points to the right of the logos indicate the chances after a win, and the points to the left indicate the chances after a loss.