NFL playoff picture ahead of Week 10

• Kansas City Chiefs eyeing home-field advantage: The Chiefs have a 78% chance of securing the No. 1 seed in the AFC, according to PFF's simulations.

• A massive week for the Buccaneers: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have a 54% chance of making the playoffs with a Week 10 win, but their chances will fall to just 23% with a loss.

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Estimated reading time: 10 minutes

As we approach November and more than one-third of the regular season has passed, it's never too early to start looking ahead to the playoffs. So, from this point forward, we will examine the current and projected playoff picture each week.

The current situation ahead of Week 10

Current AFC playoff standings

1. Kansas City Chiefs (8-0)
2. Houston Texans (7-2)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-2)
4. Buffalo Bills (6-3)
5. Baltimore Ravens (6-3)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)
7. Denver Broncos (5-4)

Current NFC playoff standings

1. Detroit Lions (7-1)
2. Washington Commanders (7-2)
3. Atlanta Falcons (6-3)
4. Arizona Cardinals (5-4)
5. Philadelphia Eagles (6-2)
6. Minnesota Vikings (6-2)
7. Green Bay Packers (6-3)

If these standings held up, we would welcome two new AFC teams (Broncos and Chargers) and four new NFC teams (Commanders, Falcons, Cardinals and Vikings) to the playoffs.

The projections

Naturally, it’s unlikely the playoff picture will remain constant over the remainder of the season. And that’s why it makes sense to look at the projected playoff picture — the estimated chances PFF gives each team to make the playoffs.

The following charts show the projected playoff chances for each team alongside the playoff leverage, i.e., how the playoff chances would change with a win or loss.

The logos show the current playoff chances. The points to the right of the logos indicate the chances after a win, and the points to the left indicate the chances after a loss.

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