• The Rams' running game is thriving: Los Angeles boasts a 31% conversion rate and a 39% successful run rate, both ranking first in the league.
• Commanders QBs are shining on intermediate passes: Both Commanders quarterbacks have been excellent on intermediate throws (10-19 yards downfield) this season, as Jayden Daniels‘ 95.3 passing grade on those throws leads all quarterbacks, while Marcus Mariota’s 95.1 grade ranks second.
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MIN@LAR | TEN@DET | BAL@CLE | GB@JAX | IND@HOU | ARI@MIA ATL@TB | CHI@WAS | NYJ@NE | BUF@SEA | NO@LAC | PHI@CIN | KC@LV CAR@DEN | DAL@SF | NYG@PIT
MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS. LOS ANGELES RAMS
At first glance, edge rusher Jonathan Greenard‘s team-leading 38 pressures may appear to be a byproduct of Minnesota’s blitz-heavy defensive scheme. But that’s not actually the case. When the Vikings don’t blitz, Greenard has won 19.5% of his pass rushes and pressured the quarterback on 24.8% of those reps. His 28 total pressures generated without a team pass blitz ranks just behind Nick Bosa’s 37 and Aidan Hutchinson’s 36 this season.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles boasts a 31% conversion rate and a 39% successful run rate, both ranking first in the league. In contrast, the Vikings have allowed the third-lowest success rate on designed run plays at 25%, well below the league average of 30%.
TENNESSEE TITANS VS. DETROIT LIONS
This season, 22% of the passes the Tennessee Titans have faced have been screen passes, the highest percentage in the league. Buffalo is the next closest team at 16%.
The Colts are the only team Tennessee has played this year that ranks outside the top 12 in screen rate on offense. Detroit enters this week ranked 30th with a screen rate of just 11%.
The Titans defense has performed well against screens, allowing the fifth-lowest first down/touchdown rate (13%) and the seventh-lowest yards per attempt average (5.3) on those plays.
Sam LaPorta has been relatively quiet, as the second-year tight end has received limited opportunities in the passing game. His target rate of 10% ranks 53rd out of 62 tight ends who have played at least 50 snaps. In contrast, LaPorta had a much more productive season last year, with a target rate of 23%, third among the top 65 tight ends.
The Titans come into this matchup tied for the fewest receptions allowed to tight ends, having given up only 18 total receptions on the year.
BALTIMORE RAVENS VS. CLEVELAND BROWNS
Baltimore’s backfield is the most dangerous in the league: Derrick Henry’s 91.8 overall grade ranks first among running backs, while Justice Hill’s impressive 91.4 receiving grade also comes in at No. 1.
Hill has caught all 21 targets sent his way, leading to seven explosive receptions of 15-plus yards, the most among running backs. Henry, on the other hand, has recorded 17 explosive runs of 10-plus yards, the second-most at the position.
Nick Chubb made his season debut last week for the Browns, stepping onto the field for the first time since Week 2 of last year. Despite the significant time missed, Chubb’s 4,900 yards after contact for his career ranks second only to Derrick Henry since 2018. In this same time frame, Henry leads in missed tackles forced on rushing attempts with 361, while Chubb ranks third with 316 missed tackles forced on run plays.
GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Since the start of the 2023 season, no quarterback has attempted more pass attempts of 20 or more yards downfield than Jordan Love (109). His 13 touchdown passes on those deep throws are tied for the third-most over this span.
Tank Bigsby has made the most of his opportunities on rushing attempts. Among 48 running backs with a minimum of 40 carries, Bigsby leads the pack with an impressive average of 4.6 yards after contact per carry.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS. HOUSTON TEXANS
Whether under Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco, the Colts have been the league's least accurate team. Among 32 quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts this season, Flacco sits at 29th with a 53% accurate pass rate, while Richardson ranks last at a mere 41%.
Wide receiver Adonai Mitchell has been particularly affected, with only 52% of his targets deemed catchable — the lowest rate in the NFL.
C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans offensive line will be relieved to have left Lambeau Field after allowing 10 pressures on third downs in Week 7, the highest total in any game this season. Fortunately for them, they’ll face a Colts defense that has generated a pressure rate of 30% and an average time to pressure of 2.56 seconds on third downs in 2024, both of which rank in the bottom four among defenses.
ARIZONA CARDINALS VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS
James Conner continues to perform at a high level for Arizona, leading all running backs with 35 missed tackles forced on rushing attempts. His 17 explosive runs of 10 or more yards are tied for the second-most in the league this season.
Calais Campbell is having one of the best pass-rushing seasons of his career. He boasts an 18.1% win rate, which would mark the highest rate of his career, while his current pressure rate of 15.2% would represent the second-highest of his career.
ATLANTA FALCONS VS. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
The Falcons have shifted away from play action this season under new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, running it just 15% of the time in 2024—the lowest rate in the NFL.
This marks a 10% drop from Robinson’s usage during his two-year tenure as the passing game coordinator (2022-23) with the Rams. Conversely, Kirk Cousins’ passer rating with play action has declined significantly, dropping from 108.2 last season to 75.5 this year, possibly due to his recovery from a recent Achilles injury.
Baker Mayfield has been on pace for the best season of his NFL career, but he now faces the challenge of injuries to both his starting wide receivers — Mike Evans is expected to be sidelined until at least after the Buccaneers’ Week 11 bye, while Chris Godwin will miss the remainder of the season.
Mayfield will likely feel Godwin’s absence most acutely, as the star receiver boasts the second-highest PFF slot receiving grade, trailing only Drake London.
CHICAGO BEARS VS. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
Both Commanders quarterbacks have been excellent on intermediate throws (10-19 yards downfield) this season, as Jayden Daniels‘ 95.3 passing grade on those throws leads all quarterbacks, while Marcus Mariota’s 95.1 grade ranks second.
Overall, the Commanders' 74% completion rate on intermediate throws ranks second-best in the league. And they should enjoy more success against a Bears defense that has earned a 31.2 coverage grade on intermediate passes this season.
Caleb Williams, known for his ability to extend plays in college, has actually performed better when releasing the ball quickly at the NFL level. On dropbacks lasting 2.5 seconds or less, Williams has earned a 76.2 PFF grade that ranks 11th among 32 qualifying quarterbacks. In contrast, his grade falls to 50.7 on dropbacks longer than 2.5 seconds, placing him 28th.
This matches well with a Commanders defense that allows a 120.6 passer rating on throws released in 2.5 seconds or less, the highest in the NFL.
NEW YORK JETS VS. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Aaron Rodgers still has the arm to push the ball downfield, and he has been showing it by targeting go routes. On 15 pass attempts targeting go routes this season, he leads all quarterbacks in completions (6) and big-time throws (5).
However, the Patriots have only allowed one reception against seven go-route targets this season, along with four forced incompletions.
Drake Maye has boosted the Patriots' passing game, particularly when targeting outside the numbers. Among qualifying quarterbacks, Maye's 115.6 passer rating on passes thrown outside the numbers ranks sixth, while Jacoby Brissett‘s 72.7 passer rating in the same category is the fifth-lowest.
The Jets' strong cornerback duo has effectively limited completions on these outside throws, allowing just a 59% completion rate, which ranks fifth lowest in the league.
BUFFALO BILLS VS. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The Bills have scored on 47% of their drives that have included plays for negative yardage, the second-highest rate in the NFL. Additionally, Buffalo’s 38% touchdown drive rate under similar conditions is the highest in the league, significantly ahead of Arizona, which ranks second at 23%.
On the offensive line, Charles Cross has established himself as one of the top left tackles, earning an 86.3 overall grade, ranking fourth in the league. He has allowed only one sack on 312 pass-blocking snaps this season, achieving a career-low pressure rate of 7.0%.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS VS. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Carl Granderson holds a unique distinction in the league, as he leads his team in both total pressures and defensive stops. As a pass rusher, he boasts a 17% win rate, which is on track for a career-high.
Justin Herbert’s 8.9 yards per attempt last week against Arizona is the highest average for any quarterback this season in a game where they did not throw a touchdown pass.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS
Lane Johnson is performing at a high level for the Eagles in his 12th season as their right tackle. This year, he has surrendered only one pressure, a hurry in Week 6 against the Browns. Over his 159 career starts (including postseason games), Johnson has turned in a clean sheet without allowing pressure 51 times.
Under Zac Taylor's leadership, the Cincinnati Bengals have utilized shifts and motion at a high rate. Their current shift/motion rate stands at 60%, 16th in the NFL and reflecting a slight increase from 54% (18th) in 2023.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS VS. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
The tight end position has been an important part of the Chiefs' passing offense this season. Chiefs tight ends have been targeted on 26% of their routes while averaging 2.09 yards per route run, ranking third-highest among tight end groups.
The Raiders have successfully defended tight ends in coverage, though, as they have allowed a 22% success rate when the tight end is targeted, second best among defenses.
Star pass-rusher Chris Jones excels wherever he is deployed along the defensive front. He has tallied 19 total pressures when lined up between the offensive tackles and 11 total pressures when lined up outside the tackles, making him the only pass-rusher with 10 or more pressures at those alignments.
His target in this matchup could be Raiders rookie left guard Jackson Powers-Johnson, whose 50.6 pass-blocking grade is the lowest among Raiders offensive linemen.
CAROLINA PANTHERS VS. DENVER BRONCOS
No rookie quarterback has been more aggressive with the deep ball than Bo Nix this season, with his 31 pass attempts of 20 or more yards ranking second in the NFL. Nix has recorded eight big-time throws on these attempts, placing him tied for sixth among quarterbacks. Conversely, the Panthers have faced only 19 deep attempts this year, tied for the sixth-fewest, but four of those have resulted in touchdowns.
When the Panthers need to move the chains through the air, Diontae Johnson is their go-to target. He leads the team with 20 total receiving conversions—nine more than the next-highest Panther—and his 37 targets past the sticks are tied for the second-highest in the NFL.
With Pat Surtain on one side of the Broncos defense, rookie cornerback Riley Moss has seen plenty of action this season, particularly beyond the first-down marker. Moss ranks second in the NFL with 30 coverage targets past the sticks and is tied for third with 14 catches allowed.
DALLAS COWBOYS VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
With the 49ers dealing with injuries at wide receiver, they are likely to rely even more heavily on Jordan Mason, who currently ranks as the NFL's second-leading rusher behind Derrick Henry.
Mason has excelled on outside zone runs, leading the league with 415 rushing yards and 19 rushing conversions on those plays. The Cowboys have faced the fourth-most outside zone runs this season and rank among the bottom four teams in EPA per play allowed against such runs.
Nick Bosa has effectively played on both edges of the defensive front this season, consistently pressuring quarterbacks regardless of alignment. He has registered 19 pressures on 114 pass-rush snaps lined up outside the left tackle and 20 pressures on 104 snaps lined up outside the right tackle, making him one of only two players with 15 or more pressures from each alignment.
Bosa will have an advantage no matter which tackle he faces against the Cowboys. Among 69 offensive tackles, Tyler Guyton has a pass-block grade of 49.0, while Terence Steele has a 46.6 grade.
NEW YORK GIANTS VS. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Deonte Banks has been assigned to cover opposing teams' top wide receivers throughout the season, and his next challenge will be Steelers wideout George Pickens. This season, Pickens has capitalized on numerous one-on-one opportunities, recording 16 catches for 294 yards on 31 targets against single coverage, ranking in the top five in the NFL.
In contrast, Banks has struggled in single coverage, posting a 25.5 coverage grade, the lowest in the league.
Red-zone scoring has been a significant issue for the Giants' offense this season, and facing the Steelers' defense will be another daunting test. The Giants' red-zone touchdown rate of 38% ranks fourth lowest in the NFL, while the Steelers boast the sixth-best red-zone defense, allowing touchdowns on only 43% of red-zone opportunities.