• The Broncos will need to stand tall against the Ravens‘ run game: Denver has allowed an explosive run of 10 or more yards on 11% of their opponents’ rushing attempts, the eighth-lowest in the NFL.
• Ladd McConkey vs. Denzel Ward will be a war: McConkey's 194 receiving yards against man coverage ranks tied for sixth among all pass-catchers, but Ward has forced eight incompletions in man coverage.
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Estimated reading time: 9 minutes
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HOU@NYJ | DAL@ATL | DEN@BAL | MIA@BUF | NO@CAR | LV@CIN | LAC@CLE | WAS@NYG | NE@TEN | CHI@ARI | JAX@PHI | DET@GB | LAR@SEA | IND@MIN | TB@KC |
Houston Texans vs. New York Jets
The Jets are stacking the box with eight or more defenders on 32% of their snaps this season, which is the second-highest rate in the league.
On the other side of the ball, Houston’s run game has faced mixed results against stacked boxes this season. The Texans lead the league with a 36% stuff rate (runs resulting in no gain or a loss), yet their 4.7 yards per carry by running backs ranks fourth-highest. Joe Mixon is the key to their success, as his 3.3 yards after contact per attempt is on pace for the highest mark of his career.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Atlanta Falcons
Since the start of the 2023 season, Jake Ferguson‘s 23 missed tackles forced leads all players at the tight end position. Ferguson forced a season-high three missed tackles in his game against San Francisco last week.
In his first multi-touchdown game of his NFL career, Kyle Pitts recorded the second-highest yards after catch (YAC) total of the week with 54 against the Buccaneers. Pitts is currently on track for a career-high in YAC per reception, averaging 6.9 yards after the catch.
Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens
The battle in the trenches on Baltimore run plays will feature strength-on-strength in this matchup. Baltimore averages 2.8 yards before contact per designed rush, the highest rate among teams. But Denver’s defense is giving up only 0.9 yards before contact per carry-on designed runs, the third-lowest mark in the league.
Denver has allowed an explosive run of 10 or more yards on 11% of their opponents’ rushing attempts, the eighth-lowest in the NFL.
Baltimore ranks second overall with a 19% explosive run rate, with Lamar Jackson’s 20 total leading all players in 2024.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
In their first matchup back in Week 2, the Miami defense produced a season-high 50% pressure rate against Josh Allen. Allen completed just three of his nine pressured pass attempts for 17 yards and a passer rating of 42.4, adding one scramble for 3 yards.
In all previous games against Miami when pressured, Allen has posted a 105.5 passer rating with 17 touchdown passes and four interceptions, along with 26 scrambles for 288 rushing yards and one touchdown.
New Orleans Saints vs. Carolina Panthers
Among the 101 cornerbacks with at least 100 coverage snaps this season, Marshon Lattimore’s 0.34 yards per coverage snap is second-lowest.
Jalen Coker’s 80.1 receiving grade ranks fourth-highest among 18 qualifying rookie wide receivers this season. Of those same 18 rookies, Coker is the only one to have caught 100% of catchable targets thrown his way.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Big plays have been hard to come by for the Raiders offense this season, and it won’t get much easier against the Bengals. The Raiders rank third-lowest in the NFL with 19 plays gaining 20-plus yards, while the Bengals have given up only 20 such plays, which ties for second-best.
Joe Burrow has been going vertical often this season with great success. His 66 completions on vertical throws rank second among quarterbacks, and his 94.7 passing grade is the top mark. The Raiders will have to tighten up their coverage in this area, as 63% of vertical throws faced have been to open targets, the highest mark in the league.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns
Jameis Winston provided a significant boost to the Browns’ passing game in Week 8, becoming the first Browns quarterback this season to throw for at least 300 yards with a passer rating of 100.0 or higher. He was particularly effective on horizontal lead throws, completing 12-of-15 passes for 163 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions.
However, the Chargers present a challenge in this area, as they’re PFF’s No. 4-graded defense against horizontal lead throws, allowing a completion percentage of just 66%, the third-best in the league.
Rookie wideout Ladd McConkey has emerged as the Chargers' top receiving weapon, excelling against man coverage. His 194 receiving yards against man coverage are tied for sixth among all pass-catchers. Opposing him is Denzel Ward, PFF’s No. 5-ranked cornerback in man coverage, who has forced eight incompletions in man — the second-most in the NFL.
Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants
Terry McLaurin is off to a great start this season. His 2.41 yards per route run and 119.0 passer rating when targeted are career highs for him. Among all wide receivers, his 83.6 PFF receiving grade ranks tied for seventh this season.
Tyrone Tracy has established himself as the Giants’ lead running back heading into the second half of the season. Since Week 5, Tracy’s 347 rushing yards rank only behind Najee Harris and Derrick Henry. His 17 rushing first downs and touchdowns rank third in the NFL in that time period, as well.
New England Patriots vs. Tennessee Titans
Hunter Henry is one of the key cogs in the Patriots’ passing game. His 358 receiving yards account for 26% of the Patriots' total receiving yards, a mark only exceeded by Brock Bowers and Trey McBride at the tight end position. The Titans have given up only 233 receiving yards to tight ends, which is third-least in the NFL.
Rookie top-10 pick J.C. Latham has been a bright spot for the Titans, leading Tennessee offensive linemen with a 70.7 pass-block grade that also ranks third-best among rookie offensive linemen.
He will have a tough test when matched against Patriots pass-rusher Keion White. His 27 pressures are 16 more than the next-best Patriot, and his 84.3 pass-rush grade ranks seventh-best among all edge rushers.
Chicago Bears vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals will look to disguise their coverage looks against rookie quarterback Caleb Williams in this game. The Cardinals use disguised coverages on 41.9% of plays, the second-highest rate in the NFL behind the Rams.
Williams has struggled a bit against disguised coverages. His 56.3 PFF passing grade against disguised looks ranks 27th among 32 passers this season. Likewise, Williams’ 4.3% turnover-worthy play rate against disguised looks is the seventh-highest in the NFL.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Jaguars sit close to the league average with a 25% play-action rate, but they’ve gotten strong production out of their play-action game, ranking second in the NFL with 9.5 yards per play. It will be strength-on-strength against an Eagles defense that also ranks second-best, only allowing 5.0 yards per play against play action.
The recent returns of Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown and Jaguars cornerback Tyson Campbell have provided boosts to both units, and their matchup is one to look out for. Since his Week 6 return, Brown leads the NFL with 194 receiving yards against single coverage, while Campbell has only given up one reception for 5 yards on seven targets in single coverage this season.
Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
Both teams feature pass-catchers who have excelled with contested catches against single coverage. The Lions rank second with a 67% contested catch rate, while the Packers are third-highest at 65%. Both trail Chicago’s 69% mark through the first nine weeks.
Green Bay’s pass rush has benefitted from the team’s use of stunts in Jeff Hafley’s defense. Green Bay uses stunts 35% of the time when rushing the passer, the second-highest rate in the league. With stunts, the Packers pressure the QB on 43% of dropbacks compared to a 28% pressure rate without stunts.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks
Kenneth Walker III has been one of the toughest players to tackle cleanly this season. With 26 missed tackles forced on 74 carries, Walker averages 0.35 missed tackles forced per attempt, a number only exceeded by Lamar Jackson. The Rams have missed 38 tackles against running backs in the run game this season, which is tied for fifth-most among defenses.
After a rough start to the year, the Rams have cleaned up their pass protection coming out of their Week 5 bye. Their pass-block grade improved from 37.7 in Weeks 1-5 to 63.1 over the last two weeks, during which their 13 pressures allowed are tied for the fewest in the NFL.
The Seahawks are coming off their least productive pass-rushing performance of the season against the Bills in Week 8, with zero sacks or quarterback hits. Their 21% pressure rate is the lowest they’ve had in a game this season.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Minnesota Vikings
When defenses have left Justin Jefferson alone without safety help over the top, it hasn’t gone particularly well for them. He leads the NFL with 446 receiving yards and 12 receptions of 15-plus yards against single-high safety coverages. Jefferson is likely to see a lot of similar looks against a Colts defense that ranks fourth in the NFL with 64% of snaps in single-high safety coverages.
Regardless of which quarterback is under center, the Colts have been one of the most aggressive passing offenses in the NFL. They lead the league with an 11.3 average depth of target and 45 pass attempts 20-plus yards downfield. The Vikings have given up 14 completions against deep throws this season, ranking tied for fourth-most in the league.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Buccaneers running backs have been a big part of the passing game, having combined for 54 receptions, 491 receiving yards and 21 receiving conversions, all of which rank first among RB groups. They face a Chiefs defense that has been stingy against RBs in coverage, ranking third-best with a 32% success rate allowed when running backs are targeted.
With Todd Bowles at the helm, it’s no surprise that the Bucs rank second in the NFL with a 48% blitz rate that has generated 14 sacks, trailing only the Broncos. Lavonte David has been especially impactful with his 13 blitz pressures tying with Bobby Wagner for the NFL lead among linebackers.
While Patrick Mahomes has avoided negatives against the blitz with the fourth-best sack rate (3.2%), he is also one of three qualifying quarterbacks yet to produce a single big-time throw against the blitz this season.
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