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Ahead of NFL Week 18, our media team has dived deep into the numbers to deliver key insights for every NFL matchup, highlighting the hidden storylines and standout performances that shape each game.
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LAC@HOU | PIT@BAL | DEN@BUF | GB@PHI | WAS@TB | MIN@LAR
Los Angeles Chargers @ Houston Texans
Justin Herbert overcame a sluggish start to the season to finish as one of the league’s most dangerous passers.
Herbert struggled over the first six weeks, ranking 25th in passing yards per attempt (6.5), 20th in PFF big-time throw rate (3.0%) and 26th in passing grade (58.2). However, he has been a revelation since Week 7, earning PFF’s highest passing grade (93.4), ranking fourth in big-time throw rate (7.1%), and posting the sixth-best passing YPA (8.1).
A critical factor in this turnaround has been a strategic shift by the Chargers to lean on the passing game earlier in drives. Through the first six weeks, the team passed on just 43.7% of early downs, the lowest rate in the NFL. Since then, that number has jumped to 60.5%, ranking fifth league-wide.
While the Chargers found their rhythm, the same cannot be said for C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans. Houston’s offense has struggled with consistency, ranking 19th in EPA per play and recording a league-low positive EPA rate of 38.4%. The Texans’ boom-or-bust nature has defined their season: they rank 10th in plays of 10 or more yards (222) but 31st in plays that resulted in a loss or no gain (108). This volatility has limited their ability to sustain drives effectively.
A major factor in the Texans' struggles has been their inability to protect Stroud. The rookie quarterback has been sacked 52 times, the second-most in the NFL behind Caleb Williams. While some of this can be attributed to Stroud holding onto the ball, much of the blame falls on an offensive line that has allowed a league-high 76 unblocked pressures in pass protection.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens
The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has hit a wall during their ongoing four-game losing streak, failing to hold a lead in any of those games. A key issue has been their inability to protect Russell Wilson. Over this stretch, Pittsburgh’s offensive line and blocking unit have allowed 11 sacks, tied for the most in the NFL since Week 15. The unit has also posted a 34% pressure rate allowed, the sixth-highest in the league, highlighting their struggles to keep the pocket clean.
The Baltimore Ravens will look to exploit these issues with their evolving pass-rushing strategy. Since Week 16, Baltimore has recorded a simulated pressure on 51% of snaps, the highest rate in the league. If the Ravens can get to Wilson, it could spell trouble for the Steelers offense, as Wilson has struggled mightily under pressure. His 43.9 passer rating under pressure over the past four games ranks 23rd out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks, and his 2.2 yards per attempt ranks dead last.
On the other side of the ball, Derrick Henry looms large as a critical factor in this matchup. In their Week 16 clash, Henry ran rampant against the Steelers, recording seven explosive runs of 10 or more yards — a season-high for the bruising back.
Pittsburgh’s defense struggled to bring him down, allowing eight forced missed tackles on his rushing attempts, the second-most Henry has recorded in a game this year. His 74 rushing yards after contact tied the highest total the Steelers have allowed to a single player this season, underscoring the need for Pittsburgh to tighten up their tackling and contain Henry in the backfield.
Denver Broncos @ Buffalo Bills
The Broncos could find success against a vulnerable Buffalo run defense that allows explosive runs of 10 or more yards at the second-highest rate in the league (15% of rushing attempts faced).
Denver’s running-back-by-committee approach lacks a true lead back, but Jaleel McLaughlin has emerged as their most dynamic option. McLaughlin leads the Broncos’ backfield with 16 explosive runs, ranking fifth among 46 running backs with at least 100 carries in explosive run rate (14%). He also boasts an impressive 1.8 yards before contact per attempt, the highest among Denver’s running backs, making him a key player to watch.
Buffalo’s defense thrives on disguising coverages, using that approach at the sixth-highest rate in the league (36%). Rookie quarterback Bo Nix will likely be cautious when facing these looks. His average depth of target against disguised coverages is just 6.2 yards, ranking 31st out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks. However, Nix’s mobility could become a factor, as he has shown a tendency to scramble against disguise, with an 8% scramble rate that ranks fourth-highest among quarterbacks this season.
Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles
The rematch between the Packers and Eagles in Philadelphia comes with significant personnel changes, particularly for Green Bay.
The absence of Christian Watson could impact the Packers' offensive strategy. Watson has been their most explosive receiving weapon, with 48% of his receptions gaining 15 or more yards and 37% of his targets coming on throws 20-plus yards downfield — the second-highest rate among receivers with at least 50 targets this season.
Adapting to a short passing game may work in the Packers’ favor against a formidable Eagles secondary that excels at defending deep shots. Philadelphia allows just a 48.5 passer rating on throws 20 or more yards downfield, the second-lowest in the NFL, and their league-leading 33% forced incompletion rate has made big plays nearly impossible.
However, Green Bay thrives in the short game, with pass-catchers turning throws of 9 yards or less — including those behind the line of scrimmage — into explosive gains of 15 or more yards at a 12% rate, the third-highest rate in the league. Their 6.6 yards after the catch average on short throws ranks fifth, and their 59 missed tackles forced are seventh-most overall.
Defensively, the Packers will be without Jaire Alexander, prompting adjustments to their scheme under Jeff Hafley. Green Bay has leaned heavily on Cover-2 since Week 13, employing it on 27% of their snaps — the highest rate in the league. The results have been promising, as they’ve allowed just 5.3 yards per play (ninth-lowest) and produced a contested target rate of 12% (also ninth-highest).
This approach could pose challenges for Jalen Hurts, who has struggled somewhat against Cover-2 defenses. Hurts has an 89.1 passer rating (14th among quarterbacks) and 7.2 yards per attempt (17th) against cover-2 this season, and he has yet to throw a touchdown on 70 attempts versus the coverage.
Washington Commanders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The spotlight of this playoff showdown will undoubtedly shine on the matchup between Mike Evans and Marshon Lattimore, two players with a storied history of intense battles in the NFC South. Since Lattimore entered the league in 2017, he has consistently made life difficult for Evans, holding him to just 15 catches for 306 yards over 12 regular-season matchups—an average of 1.3 catches and 25.5 yards per game. A key factor in Lattimore’s success has been his physicality, contesting 42% of the targets thrown Evans’ way compared to the 16% contested rate Evans faces against other defenders in his career.
Penalties could also play a critical role in this matchup. Evans has drawn 55 pass-interference penalties since entering the league in 2014, second only to DeAndre Hopkins (56). Meanwhile, Lattimore has been flagged for pass interference 21 times since 2017, the third-highest mark among defenders.
In their Week 1 meeting, the Buccaneers held Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels to 184 passing yards, his lowest output in any full game this season. However, Daniels posed significant problems on the ground, rushing for 77 yards, five conversions, and four explosive runs on scrambles—all season highs. His 595 rushing yards on scrambles this season rank as the third-most in a single season by a quarterback in the PFF era. Tampa Bay’s defense has struggled against scrambling quarterbacks all year, allowing a 65% success rate on such plays, the third-worst in the league.
Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Rams
In their Week 8 matchup, Matthew Stafford handled the Vikings' exotic pass defense with poise, earning an 81.5 passing grade—the highest by any quarterback against Minnesota this season. To disrupt Stafford this time, the Vikings must improve their pass-rush effectiveness, which has been a weak spot in their previous encounter. Minnesota generated a 24% pressure rate against the Rams in Week 8, their second-lowest mark of the season, and failed to record a sack—one of just two such games this year. That’s troubling, considering Stafford’s stark performance gap when pressured. His 90.8 passing grade when kept clean plummets to 29.6 when under duress, the largest drop-off among qualifying quarterbacks.
The Vikings' reliance on the passing game near the goal line has been a key part of their offensive identity, ranking sixth in pass-play rate inside the 10-yard line at 58%. While this approach has paid off throughout the season, with Sam Darnold throwing 20 passing touchdowns from that range—third-most in the league—it backfired in their Week 18 loss to the Lions. Against Detroit, Darnold completed just 1 of 9 passes for three yards and no touchdowns on 11 plays inside the 10-yard line, including two failed fourth-down attempts. While the Lions boast the league’s best passer rating allowed within the 10-yard line (58.0), the Rams are a close second at 66.8, presenting another tough challenge.
Jordan Addison, the Vikings' go-to threat in the red zone, couldn’t convert his lone target within the 10-yard line in Week 18 but has otherwise been reliable. From Weeks 1-17, Addison brought in all eight of his targets inside the 10-yard line for 42 yards and four touchdowns, proving to be a consistent and efficient weapon in tight spaces. The Vikings will need him to deliver against a formidable Rams defense to turn those close-range opportunities into points.
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