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Ahead of NFL Week 17, our media team has dived deep into the numbers to deliver key insights for every NFL matchup, highlighting the hidden storylines and standout performances that shape each game.
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DAL@PHI | NYJ@BUF | TEN@JAX | CAR@TB | LV@NO | IND@NYG | MIA@CLE | GB@MIN | ATL@WAS | DET@SF
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles
Micah Parsons remains a standout performer on defense. His 19.8% pass-rush win rate and 18.5% pressure rate this season both rank third among all defenders. Since his NFL debut in 2021, only Maxx Crosby has surpassed Parsons’ total of 320 pressures.
Should Jalen Hurts be unavailable for the Eagles this week, Kenny Pickett will likely step in under center. During his tenure as the Steelers' starting quarterback from 2022-2023, Pickett earned a 73.0 PFF passing grade, ranking 20th among 32 qualifying quarterbacks. He posted a 4.1% big-time throw rate (19th) and a 2.2% turnover-worthy play rate, the fourth lowest, trailing only Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, and Jalen Hurts.
New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
The interior of the Jets' offensive line has significantly improved in pass protection this season. Among team interior lines, the Jets rank second in pressure rate allowed (9.0%) and grade as the fifth-best interior unit in pass protection, with a 72.1 PFF pass-blocking grade. This is a substantial improvement from last season when they ranked 28th in PFF pass-blocking grade (49.9) and 25th in pressure rate allowed (17.3%).
Christian Benford has been one of the best cornerbacks at locking down pass catchers lined up out wide this season. Among players with 300 or more coverage snaps in such situations, his 0.51 yards allowed per coverage snap is the lowest in the league.
Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Rookie left tackle JC Latham has struggled to protect Titans quarterbacks this season. Among offensive linemen lined up at left tackle, Latham has allowed 38 total pressures, the third-most in the league, trailing only Charles Cross and Cam Robinson. His 2.9% QB knockdown rate (hits and sacks) is the second highest at the position, behind Wanya Morris. The Jaguars' defense has been among the worst in the league at limiting yards after the catch. Only the Dallas Cowboys have allowed more YAC per reception than the Jaguars' 6.2. Compounding their struggles, Jacksonville has allowed a league-high 106.4 passer rating in coverage this season.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Panthers' pass-catchers have struggled with consistency on deeper throws throughout the season. On passes traveling 10 or more yards downfield, the team leads the NFL in both dropped passes (13) and drop rate (13.0%).
Meanwhile, the Buccaneers utilize screens at a 17.4% rate, the second-highest in the league behind the Dolphins. This approach could exploit a Panthers defense that ranks last in allowing explosive plays (15+ yards) on screen passes, with a 17.2% explosive pass rate. In their Week 13 matchup, the Buccaneers tallied 41 yards on screen passes against Carolina.
Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints
Brock Bowers is their primary target when the Raiders need to get the ball out quickly in the passing game. On pass attempts released in 2.5 seconds or less, Bowers ranks third in the NFL with 69 receptions for 676 yards, and his 35 receiving conversions are tied for fifth. However, the Saints have excelled in pass coverage against quick throws, allowing the second-lowest passer rating at 84.8.
Tight ends play a significant role in the Saints' passing game, but it’s a collective effort. The Saints are the only team with three tight ends who have seen 30 or more targets this season. They’ve been particularly effective at moving the chains, ranking in the top six among tight end groups with 31 catches and 522 receiving yards on targets beyond the sticks. The Raiders, on the other hand, have struggled in this area, allowing a league-high 52 receiving conversions to tight ends, including 32 on targets beyond the sticks.
Indianapolis Colts @ New York Giants
Jonathan Taylor recorded his second career 200-yard rushing performance in Week 16, amassing 218 yards, with 135 of those coming on two explosive carries of 70 and 65 yards each. Since entering the league in 2020, Taylor has registered 15 carries of 40-plus yards, trailing only Derrick Henry in that category. The Giants have struggled to prevent big plays on the ground this season, allowing the second-most carries of 20-plus yards (18) and a league-high five carries of 40-plus yards.
The Giants have attempted to utilize Malik Nabers as a deep threat, but inconsistent quarterback play has hindered his effectiveness. Nabers is tied for third with 26 deep targets (20-plus yards downfield), yet only nine of those have been deemed catchable, resulting in five completions. He and Rome Odunze are the only players with 20 or more deep targets and five or fewer catches. Nabers could find more success this week against a Colts defense that has allowed the seventh-highest catch rate (42%) to wide receivers on deep targets.
Miami Dolphins @ Cleveland Browns
De’Von Achane has thrived in the screen game this season, leading the NFL in receiving yards (290), yards after the catch (423), and touchdowns (6) on screen passes. This week, he faces a Cleveland defense that ranks 20th in yards after the catch per completion (10.6) against screen plays, presenting a favorable matchup.
Cleveland’s struggles extend to defending outside zone runs, where they rank 23rd in yards per attempt allowed (4.5) and 28th in explosive run rate (13.2%). This week, they’ll be tested by a Miami Dolphins offense that utilizes outside zone runs on 41.6% of their attempts, the seventh-highest rate in the NFL.
Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
The Packers defense will need to stay vigilant against the Vikings' potent play-action attack. Sam Darnold boasts a 136.4 passer rating on play-action passes, the second-best mark in the league. He frequently looks deep, with 22 pass attempts of 20-plus yards downfield off play fakes, tied for the most among quarterbacks. Jordan Addison, a favorite target on these plays, leads all pass catchers with 10 such targets.
Meanwhile, Minnesota’s blitz-heavy approach may backfire against Jordan Love, who has been exceptional under pressure in the season's second half. From Weeks 11-16, Love has posted a 118.1 passer rating under pressure, with a league-best 9.9 yards per attempt. This marks a significant turnaround from Weeks 1-9 when Love struggled with a 51.2 passer rating (29th) and a 42% completion rate under pressure (30th).
Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Commanders
From Weeks 1-15, with Kirk Cousins under center, the Falcons had the league's lowest play-action rate (13%) and a fifth-worst play-action success rate (36%). However, the arrival of Michael Penix Jr. has sparked a shift. In Week 16, the Falcons boosted their play-action pass rate to 19% and their success rate to 50%. Penix Jr., who led all FBS quarterbacks in 2023 with a 93.0 passing grade on play-action, is already proving to be a game-changer. He’ll face a stiff test against a Commanders defense that is one of only four in the NFL to generate negative EPA per play against play-action passes.
On the other side, the Commanders have dominated with their read-option ground attack, leading the league with a 43% read-option run play rate. Their running backs have thrived, amassing 142 carries for 698 rushing yards and nine touchdowns on such plays. Impressively, four different Commanders backs have at least 15 carries and are averaging 4.5 yards per attempt. However, they’ll be tested by a Falcons defense that excels in this area, allowing just 3.4 yards per carry on read-option runs, the fifth-best mark in the NFL.
Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
Both of the Lions' top wideouts have posed significant challenges for defenses over the middle. Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the NFL with 580 receiving yards on in-breaking routes, while Jameson Williams ranks fourth with 513 yards. However, this is a strength of the 49ers' defense, which has allowed just 775 yards on in-breaking routes this season—the fifth-fewest in the league.
George Kittle has been nearly flawless in the red zone, hauling in 17 of 18 targets for 124 yards and eight touchdowns, tied for the third-most in the NFL. His 92.3 red zone receiving grade leads all pass-catchers. However, breaking through the Lions’ red zone defense will be a tough task. Detroit allows a league-best 46% completion rate and just 10 receiving touchdowns in the red zone, which is the second-fewest in the NFL.