• The Ravens and Bengals are surprisingly winless: Both dropped games to the Chiefs, but they also fell at home to the Raiders and Patriots, respectively.
• The Giants have a Daniel Jones problem: The team's offensive line is actually protecting him much better — ranking sixth in pass-blocking grade — not to mention that both Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson have flashed.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
Estimated Reading Time: 10 minutes
Sometimes, two games into an NFL season is a reflective sample size. Other times, it’s a blip on the radar in a long season.
Nine teams confront that very fork in the road, having dropped their first two matchups of 2024. The data isn’t promising: In the past four years, just two of 32 teams (6.25%) to start 0-2 have made the playoffs.
With the help of some PFF analytics, let’s siphon through which of the winless teams could buck the trend — and which are in real peril.
Cincinnati Bengals: Low
Somehow, this is familiar territory for Zac Taylor and the Bengals. Cincinnati has started 0-2 in each of the past three years, overcoming the initial hurdle to reach the playoffs in 2022 and still ending 9-8 last season.
Cincinnati’s receiving corps, viewed as a major plus going into this season, hasn’t performed close to expectations. Part of that is a nagging hamstring injury for Tee Higgins, but it’s also on Ja’Marr Chase. In yards per route run, the star ranks 31st out of 45 receivers with 10 or more targets this year. Altogether, the Bengals place 28th in PFF receiving grade.
On the flip side, the team’s defense has been sound so far, slotting in at ninth in overall team defense grade (72.2). Strong play from linebacker Logan Wilson (87.4 overall grade), cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt (83.5) and edge defender Trey Hendrickson (12 pressures) has buoyed Lou Anarumo’s unit, which held its own against the Chiefs in Week 2.
With three of the next four games coming against the Commanders, Panthers and Giants, Joe Burrow and the Bengals should be just fine — particularly if Higgins returns to action and Chase returns to form.
Baltimore Ravens: Moderate
The Ravens falling to Kansas City in the NFL opener wasn’t a shocker. Sunday’s home loss to the Raiders, though, most certainly qualifies.
As long as Baltimore has Lamar Jackson for most, if not all, of the season, better results should follow. But the Ravens also need Jackson to play like his usually dominant, multi-faceted self. The reigning MVP ranks 13th in overall PFF grade (70.7) and 16th in passing grade (67.7) through two games, both of which are far cries from his 2023 marks.
There’s also been a steeper learning curve than expected for Zach Orr’s new defense, which still boasts tremendous talent at all three levels. The Ravens have been particularly liable in coverage, giving up explosive plays (15 or more yards) on 17.7% of snaps (31st) and ranking 26th in team coverage grade.
In some ways, Baltimore indicated some growth in the shock Week 2 defeat. After surrendering a staggering 14 pressures against Kansas City, the Ravens’ offensive line allowed only five against Maxx Crosby and the Raiders. That’s a positive development for an offensive line ushering in three new starters.
John Harbaugh’s bunch faces a massive test in Dallas in Week 3, one that very well might determine the outcome of Baltimore’s 2024 campaign. If the team’s offensive line can stand tall, Jackson and the Ravens might be able to right the ship against a defense that was gashed in Week 2.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Between moderate and average
The Jaguars haven’t lost either of their games — against formidable opponents — by more than five points, but they also haven’t looked particularly refined so far. Jacksonville ranks 26th in PFF overall grade and has several legitimate problems to fix (excluding Trevor Lawrence).
A major headache is the offensive line, which sits 25th in PFF pass-blocking grade and 29th in run-blocking grade. Lawrence has been pressured on 38.7% of his dropbacks and is averaging only 2.37 seconds before he deals with a defender in his face. In particular, second-year tackle Anton Harrison has regressed, already allowing seven pressures.
Defensively, Jacksonville has not been able to wrap up well whatsoever, with the team’s 16% missed tackle rate tying for 24th. Ryan Nielsen’s contingent has been ineffective in several other categories, including run defense (22nd in team grade) and coverage (22nd).
The Jaguars face a do-or-die matchup on Monday Night Football against the Bills, and they don’t have many layups on the horizon beyond Week 3. There’s still room for optimism, given Lawrence, first-rounder Brian Thomas Jr. and a revamped defense, but the clock is ticking to correct errors — many of which have seemed inexplicable under head coach Doug Pederson.
Indianapolis Colts: Above average
Much like their division rival, the Colts have lost only close affairs in 2024. The major caveat, though, is that one came against a team down its starting quarterback, in a game that probably should’ve been won.
Indianapolis’ entire operation revolves around second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson, whose inexperience has manifested through two games. The former No. 4 overall pick has assuredly provided highlights but hasn’t honed his craft yet. Richardson ranks 23rd in PFF overall and passing grades, and his five turnover-worthy throws are tied for the second most among signal-callers.
The Colts’ defense, ranking 24th in team grade, hasn’t indicated much progress, either. Gus Bradley’s run-defense unit has been victimized by opposing offensive coordinators, with Indianapolis playing the most snaps against the run while simultaneously permitting the most rushing yards in the league (494). On top of the existing struggles, losing interior defender DeForest Buckner for four weeks and cornerback JuJu Brents for the season won’t help.
If Richardson’s up-and-down play continues throughout his first real year of starting in the NFL, it will be difficult to think that Shane Steichen’s play-calling can dig the Colts out from this early hole.
Tennessee Titans: Above average
Tennessee represents another team with a pair of one-score losses to quality opponents. However, there’s a lot more malfunctioning happening under the hood.
The conversation has to begin with quarterback Will Levis, whose start to his second year has been nothing short of nightmarish (and with no shortage of meme potential, either). Among quarterbacks with 20-plus dropbacks, Levis ranks 29th in PFF overall grade (46.9) and 31st in passing grade (42.1), producing big-time throws on only 3.1% of attempts.
The protection around Levis also hasn’t been stellar. Tennessee places 26th in team pass-blocking grade, and tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere leads all players in pressures allowed (11). Three other titans (J.C. Latham, Peter Skoronski and Dillon Radunz) have given up six or more pressures of their own.
Tennessee’s defense has struggled in run defense, with a 39.8 team grade (31st), and coverage also hasn’t been a strong suit (20th in team grade). Getting home with pressure has been another challenge, with the Titans accruing only 19 pressures — the third fewest in the NFL.
Dennard Wilson’s defense should grow, especially given some solid early showings from newcomers Ernest Jones and Chidobe Awuzie. At the end of the day, though, most success will boil down to Levis’ play, and the longer-form results aren’t especially encouraging.
Denver Broncos: High
After an 8-9 record in Sean Payton’s first season, there was a bit of optimism that an upward trajectory would ensue for the Broncos in 2024. Not only has that not happened in the early going, but there seems to be little room for promise.
Following a strong preseason, rookie quarterback Bo Nix has left lots to be desired in his first two NFL games. Nix ranks 37th in PFF overall and passing grades, committing four turnover-worthy plays relative to only one big-time throw. The most alarming facet of Nix’s game is his lack of accuracy down the field: He has completed just five of 22 throws (22.7%) beyond nine yards.
To be fair, Nix hasn’t received much help. Denver ranks 29th in team receiving grade, 31st in rushing grade and 22nd in pass-blocking grade.
Vance Joseph’s defense has been similarly victimized, sitting 29th in overall grade. Even with Patrick Surtain II, coverage has been an issue, with only P.J. Locke slotting in with a coverage mark above 70.0.
Given Nix’s early woes and the Broncos' diminishing defensive talent, it appears that 2024 will be another developmental year for Payton out West.
Los Angeles Rams: High
It’s safe to say the Rams’ quest for consecutive playoff berths couldn’t have started much worse.
Even with Matthew Stafford and Kyren Williams, Los Angeles’ offense is in shambles because of injuries. The receiving corps will likely be without both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua until midseason, with both potentially headed for injured reserve. That leaves Colby Parkinson, Williams, Tutu Atwell and Demarcus Robinson as primary pass-catchers for Stafford, with none exceeding a 69.9 PFF receiving grade.
Likewise, the offensive line is in disarray following a glut of injuries, including to Steve Avila and Jonah Jackson. Without most of its starting bunch, Los Angeles’ offensive line has been arguably the worst in the league, permitting a 42.4% pressure rate (29th) and six sacks (tied for third worst) through two games.
Sean McVay’s defense is also not looking promising. The unit was vaporized by Kyler Murray and the Cardinals in Week 2 after being bowled over by the Lions in Week 1. Altogether, the Rams' defense ranks last in yards per play allowed (6.8) and expected points allowed per play.
The 2022 Rams largely collapsed due to injuries, particularly to Stafford. If he and Williams can stay healthy, there’s a slight silver lining for McVay, but an eerily similar feeling is palpable in 2024. It’s hard to expect better results given the astounding loss of talent this early.
New York Giants: Extremely high
Daniel Jones and Brian Daboll entered 2024 knowing it was a make-or-break season, and the damage might already be irreparable.
Despite playing better in Week 2, Jones has still been a below-average quarterback, ranking 20th in PFF passing grade (minimum of 20 dropbacks) with only one big-time throw across 70 attempts. The most damning part is that the Giants’ offensive line is actually protecting him much better — ranking sixth in pass-blocking grade — not to mention that both Malik Nabers and Wan’Dale Robinson have flashed.
New York’s defense has been better than the offense, but still not as stingy as expected. Only three players (Dexter Lawrence, Micah McFadden and Dru Phillips) have PFF overall grades above 71.0, as Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux have yet to find their footing on the edge.
Shane Bowen’s defense could fare better as the season progresses, especially expecting more from its three-tiered talent. But it’s hard to fathom that Big Blue’s offense will improve much from its ranking of 26th in expected points allowed per play. With nothing but formidable matchups upcoming, things could get ugly fast — potentially leading to Jones' benching.
Carolina Panthers: Is this thing still on?
Somehow, 0-2 doesn’t do the Panthers justice.
Carolina has been outscored 73-13 in two games and is the worst team in PFF overall grade (47.7) by 2.5 points. Neither the team’s offense nor defense ranks better than 31st in grade.
Widespread hopes were to see growth from the Panthers’ offense under Dave Canales, but there have hardly been any saving graces. Despite adding Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette, plus signing Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, quarterback Bryce Young somehow regressed from a dismal rookie year. After finishing with the worst PFF passing grade in the NFL (by almost 10 points) through Week 2, Young had the plug pulled in favor of 36-year-old Andy Dalton, whose ceiling is extremely limited.
Somehow, Carolina’s defense has been nearly as bad. After the loss of stud defensive lineman Derrick Brown, hardly any star power remains. The Panthers are 27th in expected points allowed play and 31st in scoring drive percentage allowed (60.9%), with no defender grading above a 66.7 mark.
It would be easy to chalk up these first two weeks to growing pains under Canales, but these metrics speak to something much more profound (and horrifying). Unless Dalton can energize this passing attack — or a revitalized Young can come into play later in the year — there’s a strong possibility that the Panthers will finish with two or fewer wins for the second straight year and are back in the draft’s driver’s seat.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.