• Super Bowl or bust in Buffalo: With the Bills appearing to be the AFC’s most complete team, it’s time for them to finally go all the way.
• Who will be the Titans' starting quarterback in 2025? Since returning from injury in Week 10, Will Levis has made some strides, ranking 16th in PFF passing grade with a league-leading 8.9% big-time throw rate. But turnover-worthy plays and pocket presence remain overarching issues.
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Estimated Reading Time: 17 minutes
In the blink of an eye, only five weeks remain in the 2024 NFL regular season. Teams on the playoff bubble are staring down their fates, while other squads are trying to fine-tune as the postseason nears.
Sure, every NFL squad would love to win out to close the year, but not all expectations are created equally. Below is one thing each franchise should look to achieve as the calendar turns to 2025 — and the lights dim on this season.
JUMP TO A TEAM:
ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN | CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND | JAX | KC | LV | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN | NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF | SEA | TB | TEN | WAS
Arizona Cardinals: Maintain offensive production to stay competitive
The Cardinals sit at 6-6 after losing their past two games, and offensive output is the big reason why. After tearing up opposing defenses through the air and on the ground for most of 2024, Arizona’s offense hasn’t been as good in the past two weeks, ranking 24th in EPA per play and 21st in successful play rate while compiling only 28 total points. If the Cardinals want to remain competitive for the NFC West title, offensive coordinator Drew Petzing needs to remedy this dry spell against two solid defenses.
Atlanta Falcons: Win the NFC South
The Falcons seemed to be in cruise control, possessing an 84.4% chance to win the NFC South ahead of Week 10. But fast-forward four weeks, and Atlanta has somehow dropped three straight, keeping the division race very much alive. Considering that both the Falcons and Buccaneers rank in the top five in easiest schedules remaining — and that Atlanta holds the head-to-head tiebreaker — there’s very little excuse for Raheem Morris not to come away with the division title.
Baltimore Ravens: Fix offensive production against elite defenses
At 8-5, the Ravens are still a safe playoff bet, holding a 96% chance to finish among the AFC’s top seven seeds. But what’s troublesome for Baltimore is that its offense hasn’t flourished as much in the past three weeks, ranking 23rd in success rate and 14th in EPA per play. While Lamar Jackson secured a 74.8 PFF overall grade against the Chargers in Week 12, he posted grades below 71.0 against the Steelers and Eagles — two losses. Considering Baltimore will likely face a terrific defense as early as the wild-card round, offensive coordinator Todd Monken will have to search for fixes, especially in Weeks 16 and 17 against the Steelers and Texans.
Buffalo Bills: Win the AFC
The Bills rank in the top eight in both offensive and defensive EPA per play and have already secured the AFC East title. They are only one game behind the Chiefs for the AFC’s top seed. Buffalo finds itself in familiar territory by flourishing in the regular season, but can it finally materialize in the postseason?
Sean McDermott’s bunch has now reached the playoffs for six straight years, but none of those have culminated in a Super Bowl berth. With the Bills appearing to be the AFC’s most complete team, it’s time for Buffalo to finally accomplish what’s dodged the franchise for so long.
Carolina Panthers: Continue showing fight
The Panthers are all but eliminated, but that hasn’t deterred Dave Canales’ group from looking much more poised down the stretch. Carolina went toe-to-toe with both the Chiefs and Buccaneers in the past two weeks, and Bryce Young (84.9 PFF overall grade since Week 10) has played like the game-changing quarterback we expected. If the Panthers can make life difficult on the Eagles, Cardinals, Buccaneers and Falcons to close out the year — and potentially reach five wins — then that’s a successful season.
Chicago Bears: Improve late-game execution
Sitting at 4-8, the Bears’ playoff hopes are all but naught. But the silver lining for Chicago is that its record doesn’t reflect the team’s broader play, even during its six-game losing streak. The Bears have had chances to win four of their past six defeats, but late-game blunders — from Hail Mary woes to blocked field goals — have deterred that. If Thomas Brown can continue to improve the Bears’ offensive output — with Chicago ranking 12th in EPA per play since he took over in Week 11 — then it should inevitably translate to better, more tangible results.
Cincinnati Bengals: Get off the field defensively
Much like the Bears, the Bengals appear to face too steep of a hill to climb to reach the playoffs, holding just a 2% chance of playing into mid-January. Even still, obtaining more balance between the team’s prolific offense and unraveling defense would go a long way. The Bengals rank 28th in first downs allowed and 30th in conversion percentage given up, which has translated to its offense not getting on the field as much as it needs to. If Cincinnati’s defense can play better on late downs — and tackle better — then the needle could trend up heading into 2025.
Cleveland Browns: Block better
The Browns will likely overhaul their quarterback room entering the 2025 season, especially if they finish with a top-five pick. Assuming Cleveland has a new starter and even a new running back, its offensive line will simply need to play at a higher level, as it won't be possible to revamp all five positions. The Browns fared somewhat better than expected against a ferocious Steelers front in Week 12, permitting only nine pressures and one sack, but Joel Bitonio (career-low 62.5 PFF overall grade) remains a question mark.
Dallas Cowboys: Sustain run-blocking effectiveness
The Cowboys compiled 122 rushing yards against the Giants en route to a Thanksgiving Day victory, but the team still finished with a subpar 60.8 PFF run-blocking grade. Still, it was a positive development to have four of five starting offensive linemen post a PFF run-blocking grade of at least 67.7. Assuming that Dallas upgrades in a major way at running back, it should strive to string together better run-blocking games, considering its 2025 offensive line may be similar to the one we saw in Week 13.
Denver Broncos: Reach the postseason
It often flies under the radar, but the Broncos haven’t made the playoffs since 2015, the year they won Super Bowl 50. The team hasn’t finished above .500 since 2016, but this year appears prime territory to change that. Powered by Bo Nix (84.4 PFF overall grade since Week 8) and a defense that ranks second in EPA per play, the Broncos are 8-5 and have a 71% chance to end the streak. What happens once in the postseason — assuming a road game at Buffalo or Pittsburgh — would be more treacherous, but even getting there is tremendous progress.
Detroit Lions: Win the Super Bowl
The Lions rank first in overall team grade and haven’t lost since Week 2. Detroit is the favorite to not only win the NFC, but the Lombardi Trophy, sitting with a 20% chance — narrowly better than the Chiefs at 18%. Dan Campbell brought the Lions to the NFC Championship last year, but it feels as if there’s almost nothing stopping Detroit from reaching Super Bowl 59, if not winning it, especially considering its defensive front-seven should return several starters from injury.
Green Bay Packers: Get better pass-rushing production
Making the playoffs isn’t really a question for the 9-3 Packers. But if Green Bay wants to go on a legitimate run as a likely wild-card team, it will need its pass-rushing unit to be better. The Packers rank only 23rd in team pass-rushing grade, not to mention 19th in pressure rate. No Packer with 100-plus pass-rushing snaps has recorded a higher pass-rush win rate than Rashan Gary at 11.1%, which means the entire unit needs to elevate its play and make life more harrowing for quarterbacks like Jared Goff and Jalen Hurts.
Houston Texans: Improve offensive rhythm
There’s no sugar-coating it: The Texans have a slew of offensive problems, which explains the team slotting 18th in offensive EPA per play. From a run game that ranks 23rd in EPA per play, to an interior offensive line still not effective in either facet, to slightly declining play from C.J. Stroud (passing grade down five points), to little second-half production, Houston isn’t playing close to its capacity on that side of the ball.
Even a game against the Jaguars, with one of the worst defenses in the NFL, didn’t serve as a get-right opportunity. The Texans produced only a 69.6 overall offensive grade in that contest. The clock is ticking for Houston to find cohesion on offense, or the team risks dropping a home playoff game.
Indianapolis Colts: Make life easier for Anthony Richardson
Since his promotion back to being the Colts’ starting quarterback in Week 11, Anthony Richardson has played at a higher level, amassing an 84.8 PFF overall grade that ranks sixth among qualifiers in that span. The problem, though, is that Indianapolis pass-catchers continue to suffer from drops. The Colts are tied for 20th with 19 drops this year, including posting seven in the past three games.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Play better in the secondary
Trevor Lawrence‘s health is obviously at the forefront after a scary collision in Week 13. But the Jaguars also need to concentrate on improving their coverage in their final five games, especially considering the team will likely retain many current starters on the backend. The Jaguars slot only 28th in team coverage grade this year, with marquee free agent signing Darnell Savage underperforming (52.7 PFF coverage grade). Rookie Jarrian Jones hasn’t been spectacular, allowing catches on 73.7% of targets and 11.3 yards per reception. Jacksonville will seemingly employ a new coaching staff next year, but better coverage would bode well for the team heading into 2025.
Kansas City Chiefs: Improve red-zone execution
The Chiefs are 11-1 and in the driver’s seat to win the AFC for the second time in three years, but the team has a boatload of areas to improve in if it hopes to achieve a three-peat. The foremost appears to be red-zone play, where Kansas City has scored a touchdown on only 52.1% of drives (20th) and ranks 19th in successful play percentage. The Chiefs were almost upset by the Raiders on Black Friday after scoring touchdowns on only one of their five possessions. Patrick Mahomes and the offense presumably won’t find as much success in close-margin games if they can’t convert trips inside the 20 into six points.
Las Vegas Raiders: Establish more of a run game
The Raiders have no shortage of positions to address this offseason, which could leave them thin at running back. Las Vegas has struggled mightily on the ground all season, ranking 31st in team rushing grade; the duo of Alexander Mattison and Zamir White has failed to produce a PFF rushing grade over 67.0. Third-year back Sincere McCormick (64 yards, 73.1 PFF rushing grade) offered some burst in Week 13, but either way, it would be a big boost for the Raiders to show some progress when running over their final five games.
Los Angeles Chargers: Win a playoff game
Powered by a defense that ranks sixth in EPA per play and fourth in team grade, the Chargers are 8-4 and have a 93% chance to reach the playoffs — all of which feels like a major overachievement in Jim Harbaugh’s first year. Justin Herbert is poised to play his second career playoff game, but Los Angeles hasn’t won a playoff contest since the 2018 season. With Herbert under center and a defense that strikes fear into almost any offensive coordinator, it feels like the Chargers could snap that streak — especially if their run game and receivers can be more effective down the stretch.
Los Angeles Rams: Play better coverage
The Rams are only a game back of the Seahawks for first place in the NFC West, largely fueled by an offense that sits 13th in EPA per play and fourth in success rate. The contributions of Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams are all but assured, but what’s lingered as a weak spot is the team’s coverage: Los Angeles ranks 24th in passing EPA per play and 23rd in team coverage grade. Given that no Ram to play 100 or more coverage snaps has eclipsed even a 66.0 PFF coverage grade, it might be unrealistic to expect tighter coverage this late, although it appears to be Los Angeles' only shot at reaching the playoffs.
Miami Dolphins: Improve play in cold-weather environments
The 5-7 Dolphins have virtually zero room for error if they want to embark on a late-season postseason surge. Unfortunately for Mike McDaniel’s bunch, that includes closing the season with two road games at Cleveland and New York, each of which figures to be cold. Miami turned in another dud in frigid conditions on Thanksgiving night, and the Dolphins are now 0-4 in matchups at 40 degrees or lower under McDaniel. The odds of Miami playing in a climate-controlled playoff game in the future are low, which makes this final stretch of 2024 a prime opportunity to sort out offensive and defensive execution.
Minnesota Vikings: Reach the Divisional Round
Skepticism abounded early about the Vikings, but they’ve proven legitimate. Sam Darnold ranks seventh among qualifiers in PFF passing grade, and Minnesota’s defense is still first in EPA per play. That combination of offensive and defensive prowess with exceptional play-calling on both sides should translate, and that means an opportunity to exorcise the team’s wild-card demons from two years ago. If Minnesota still can’t win a playoff game in Kevin O’Connell’s third season — and with a team this well-rounded — then deeper questions will crop up.
New England Patriots: Protect Drake Maye
Maye has been solid since taking over for Jacoby Brissett, posting a 73.7 PFF overall grade while securing PFF passing grades above 73.0 in two of his past three outings. The problem all year has been New England’s offensive line — which sits 32nd in PFF overall grade. Colossal upgrades are needed at virtually every position except right guard, so the focus for the remainder of this year should be to give Maye as much time as possible to refine his craft as a passer.
New Orleans Saints: Better stop the run
The Saints may finally succumb to at least a partial rebuild this offseason, and considerable work needs to be done on the defensive side of the ball. Still, New Orleans will likely bring back several starters on a unit that has not been effective against the ground game: The Saints rank 32nd in team run-defense grade and 31st in rushing EPA per play. More good work from Jordan Howden and Alontae Taylor, each of whom has posted a PFF run-defense grade of 76.6 or better, could be a catalyst for players like Nathan Shepherd and Bryan Bresee.
New York Giants: Lean on the rookie playmakers
The Giants have been reduced to watching their draft stock, and season-ending injuries to Dexter Lawrence and Theo Johnson haven't helped. New York will almost assuredly add a high-profile quarterback this offseason, meaning its executives and fans should concentrate on impressive young pieces. Andru Phillips (81.9 PFF overall grade) and Tyler Nubin (75.9 PFF run-defense grade, 78.0 PFF tackling grade) appear to be long-term pieces in the secondary, while Malik Nabers (81.9 PFF receiving grade) has looked unstoppable despite dismal play under center. If the Giants want to turn things around next year, they’ll need their newcomers to play at this high of a level once again.
Highest-Graded Rookie Defenders (Minimum 100 Snaps)
New York Jets: Sort out the defensive qualms
Much like their city counterparts, the Jets have a smorgasbord of issues to sort out, from leadership to quarterback. But the team’s defensive core will likely carry over going into 2025. The unit has grossly underperformed, ranking 18th in EPA per play and 22nd in PFF overall grade. A major reason has been the declining play of Sauce Gardner (first season below an 87.9 PFF overall grade), but other questions loom along the defensive line and in the secondary. Getting more consistent play from Gardner and the rest of the unit as the 2024 season mercifully wraps up would mean one fewer thing to worry about.
Philadelphia Eagles: Win the Super Bowl
Much like the Lions, it’s hard to find a true weak point on the Eagles right now. After all, Philadelphia is 10-2 and ranks in the top six in both offensive and defensive EPA per play. Plus, the Eagles have already attained wins over the Ravens, Commanders and Packers. The team holds a 29% chance of winning the NFC, and now the duty of overcoming last year’s late-season collapse and playoff disaster falls squarely on the shoulders of head coach Nick Sirianni. There appears to be no hindrance to this team at least reaching the NFC Championship, but bigger aspirations are certainly on the table with a squad this good.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Reach the Divisional Round
For the first time in at least four years, the Steelers seem to have an offense competent enough to complement an elite defense. Pittsburgh ranks 15th in offensive EPA per play and fourth in defensive EPA per play, while Russell Wilson’s 78.3 PFF passing grade sits ninth among qualifiers. The Steelers are in strong position to reach the playoffs for the second straight season, but the postseason hasn’t been kind to Mike Tomlin, who has lost five straight games and not won since the 2017 season. Given that Pittsburgh could host a playoff game against a lower-ranking AFC team, 2024 feels like the year that the Steelers need to finally overcome that drought.
San Francisco 49ers: Fix the run defense
The simple answer for the 49ers would be to avoid additional cataclysmic injuries, but that appears to be out of their control at this point in the year. Instead, Kyle Shanahan should concentrate on maximizing his existing talent, particularly on defense to stop the run. The 49ers rank 29th in team run-defense grade, with San Francisco tying for 24th in missed tackles against the ground game. Yes, the 49ers may look slightly tweaked on defense next year, but continuous healthy pieces like Ji’Ayir Brown, Deommodore Lenoir and rookie Renardo Green need to play better against the run.
Seattle Seahawks: Find ways to keep Geno Smith upright
The Seahawks are in pole position to win the NFC West, holding a 43% chance of doing so. But if Seattle also wants to make a run in Mike Macdonald’s first year, its offensive line simply needs to hold up better. The Seahawks’ unit ranks 28th in PFF overall grade and pressure percentage. Even in wins — such as at the Jets in Week 13 — Smith was pressured on 34.3% of dropbacks. Smith (81.6 PFF passing grade) has been elite despite his circumstances, but at some point, the sheer pressure will likely be too overwhelming if improvement doesn’t happen.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tighten the coverage
The Buccaneers are riding a two-game winning streak and suddenly find themselves tied for first place in the NFC South, but their secondary has still been leaky for almost the entire season. Tampa Bay sits 28th in passing EPA per play and contested target rate. Even bright spot Zyon McCollum has been less effective over the past three weeks, compiling just a 63.8 PFF coverage grade. The Buccaneers will need McCollum to play like a lockdown cornerback down the stretch, especially since only Jamel Dean and Tykee Smith have posted PFF coverage grades of 69.0 or higher.
Tennessee Titans: Determine your quarterback direction
The Titans’ 2024 season is basically a moot point in terms of outcome, but there’s still plenty hinging on the quarterback position over the next five games. Since returning from injury in Week 10, Will Levis has made some strides, ranking 16th in PFF passing grade with a league-leading 8.9% big-time throw rate. But turnover-worthy plays and pocket presence remain overarching issues. Will Levis display enough to deter Tennessee from drafting a quarterback early, or will Brian Callahan stick to the early-season plan and move on?
Washington Commanders: Improve defensively
The Commanders secured a much-needed victory over the Titans in Week 13, staving off other playoff hopefuls to reach 8-5 and move to a 78% postseason probability. If Washington wants to go deeper than anticipated in Dan Quinn’s first year as head coach, it will need its defense to play at a higher level. The Commanders sit only 23rd in defensive EPA per play and 24th in yards per play allowed, although those figures have improved since Week 7 — ranking 17th and 13th, respectively.
Still, that’s not dominant enough to neutralize NFC powerhouses like Detroit, Philadelphia or even Minnesota. The debut of trade deadline acquisition Marshon Lattimore could help, but this unit still needs to play better collectively if likely Offensive Rookie of the Year Jayden Daniels wants to cap off his rookie season in style.
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