• Christian Wilkins cashes in with the Raiders: The three-year cash flow of Wilkins’ four-year, $110 million deal is $84.25 million, nearly $10 million clear of Justin Madubuike and also significantly better than the three-year cash flow on wide receiver Davante Adams’ five-year, $140 million extension.
• The Chiefs add a weapon in Marquise Brown on a team-friendly deal: Brown is a speedster who can win at the intermediate and deep levels and runs crisp routes with sudden breaks.
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Estimated Reading Time: 14 minutes
Now over a week into the 2024 NFL free agency period, most of the big deals have been signed across the NFL, though many impactful moves are still to be made.
We take a look here at the most player-friendly and team-friendly contracts signed in the first few waves of free agency.
Player-Friendly
The player-friendly deals are not just us identifying where we had a lower projected contract than the actual deal signed, though that is a relevant data point. Sometimes we just get things wrong and misread the market, which is the case for a few of these. Overall this year, we failed to properly account for the top-of-the-market growth at a handful of positions, with a huge spike to the 2024 salary cap leading to very strong contracts across the board. We still may view a contract as player-friendly even after resetting our expectations and learning from the NFL teams based on their resource allocation.
Finally, we will make sure to highlight in both sections that this is not just about the total value or average annual value of a contract, but we will dive into the details of the contracts, as well, kicking things off with a contract that is remarkably strong for the player in every single aspect.
DI Christian Wilkins, Las Vegas Raiders
Contract: Four years, $110 million ($27.5 million per year), $57.5 million fully guaranteed, $82.75 million total guaranteed
Wilkins was the biggest winner of the entire free agency period, full stop. When it became clear he would not be franchise-tagged by the Miami Dolphins, and the Baltimore Ravens were franchise-tagging interior defender Justin Madubuike, he became the belle of the ball in free agency. When Kansas City Chiefs interior defender Chris Jones inked a massive five-year, $158.75 million extension that, most importantly, exceeded the three-year cash flow of Aaron Donald’s three-year, $95 million extension, Donald’s deal was no longer to be treated as something of an outlier contract.
Wilkins did not get the incremental raise over the next tier of interior defenders that we saw with four successive contracts at the position last offseason. He split the difference between that tranche of players and the Jones/Donald deals, which is a big win. But the beauty is in the details, as always.
Wilkins’ contract provides us with a perfect example of why contract details — here, cash flows — are key:
The three-year cash flow of Wilkins’ four-year, $110 million deal with the Raiders is $84.25 million, nearly $10 million clear of Justin Madubuike and also significantly better than the three-year cash flow on Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams’ five-year, $140 million extension. Adams’ average annual value ($28 million) technically exceeds Wilkins' ($27.5 million), but the original three-year cash flow of Adams’ deal was $67.75 million. So, Wilkins got close to $20 million more in cash over the first three years, a home run in every way, whether we stack it up to the position group or with other Raiders contracts.
On the field, Wilkins is undoubtedly a disruptive force, but he was two to three years older than the players who signed last offseason in the $22.5 million to $24 million per year range and Madubuike, who signed a very strong contract with an average annual value of $24.5 million. Wilkins is also an extremely well-rounded player, and arguably the best run defender of this entire bunch, but his pass-rush productivity trails most of these players, in some cases by a decent margin.
This is not a bad deal for the Raiders, who now have one of the league’s most formidable defensive fronts, but it’s the win of the offseason for the player.
Click here to get even more analysis from PFF's deal grader
WR Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans
Contract: Four years, $92 million ($23 million per year), $46.98 million fully guaranteed, $50 million total guaranteed
Ridley and his camp were certainly happy to see Tampa Bay Buccaneers wideout Mike Evans sign a two-year, $41 million extension as opposed to testing the open market, as he was the primary beneficiary as the clear next-best option at the position. While Ridley signed a second contract, as compared to a third deal for Evans, he is only a year younger.
The division rival Tennessee Titans stepped up in a major way and signed Ridley away from the Jacksonville Jaguars, who traded for Ridley at the 2022 trade deadline and ended up getting just one season of play for a 2023 fifth-round pick, a 2024 third-round pick and $11.116 million.
Ridley is undoubtedly still a great player, and he cited the lack of wear and tear on his body as a reason he is really 25 years old and not 29 — the science remains to be seen there — but this was a huge payday from Tennessee. Ridley will turn 30 years old during the 2024 season, and we know the 2024 wide receiver draft class is expected to be one of the most talented groups both at the top of the draft and throughout Day 2, so this was a big-time contract to secure, given all of the market factors at play.
Click here to get even more analysis from PFF's deal grader
G Jonah Jackson, Los Angeles Rams
Contract: Three years, $51 million ($17 million per year), $25.5 million fully guaranteed, $34 million total guaranteed
Jackson is the example we alluded to at the top where we talked about our failure to adequately account for position market growth. What an offseason it's been for guards. We still think this deal is very friendly for the player. With the rise of the interior defender market, both last offseason and with Chris Jones and Christian Wilkins pushing it even higher, it was only natural for the guys who are charged with blocking them to see their contracts rise commensurate with the interior defender market. Nonetheless, Jackson, who is a beast of a run blocker and a gifted young athlete with upside potential, has not been the greatest pass protector through his first four seasons, which is what gets a player paid at the highest level.
From a contractual standpoint, Jackson was able to leverage Los Angeles Rams right guard Kevin Dotson’s three-year extension into a three-year extension of his own. We’ve seen in recent years that players and their agents have pushed for shorter and shorter deals, with the wide receiver market last offseason being the best example, but this trend occurs on different timelines across different positions.
The guard market had remained one of the stickier ones with respect to shortening the contract term below four or even five years, so the guards who were able to maintain strong average annual values and also a faster path back to a rapidly growing market did really well for themselves.
Click here to get even more analysis from PFF's deal grader
CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, Arizona Cardinals
Contract: Three years, $25.5 million ($8.5 million per year), $14.195 million fully guaranteed, $17.39 million total guaranteed
The timing for Murphy-Bunting truly could not have been better, coming off the one-year flier he signed with the Tennessee Titans in 2023 to serve as their top cornerback, a role he filled admirably in a defense that had him taking on challenging assignments almost exclusively out wide and playing up in press coverage at a decent clip.
Even better for Murphy-Bunting was the fact that the Chicago Bears franchise-tagged Jaylon Johnson and the Kansas City Chiefs franchise-tagged L’Jarius Sneed, so he became the top free-agent outside cornerback under the age of 27 by a fairly wide margin. We truly just failed to appreciate that.
Murphy-Bunting also deserves credit for how he performed in 2023; we’re not saying he didn’t earn this contract on his own merit. Playing for a Tennessee Titans defense that featured one of the least talented secondaries in the NFL — especially once safety Kevin Byard was traded at the deadline — the former second-round pick tallied two interceptions and five more pass breakups. Murphy-Bunting also provided solid run support with 14 defensive stops and 50 total tackles, both good numbers for an outside cornerback.
Click here to get even more analysis from PFF's deal grader
DI Justin Jones, Arizona Cardinals
Contract: Three years, $31.165 million ($10,388,333 average per year), $17.75 million fully guaranteed at signing, $19.75 million total guaranteed
Jones shows a lot of high-level flashes on tape, knifing upfield in a hurry and making splash plays on the quarterback or with tackles for loss. He has recorded 7.5 sacks, 22 tackles for loss and 50 total defensive stops over the past two seasons. That said, considering his down-to-down and game-to-game inconsistencies, this contract number was a bit surprising. Jones signed a two-year, $12 million contract with the Bears in 2022 and undoubtedly played to that deal; we just didn’t expect a significant raise off that number for his third contract.
We should also point out that being a great locker room guy and presence in the community can get you some extra cash in this league, and it absolutely should. Jones was by all accounts one of the most well-liked players in the Chicago Bears organization the past two years, and he was honored as the Walter Payton Man of the Year nominee in 2023.
The Cardinals had a void at the interior defender position and needed to make a move or two before the draft, and Jones is a great fit as a foundational piece and culture-builder for Jonathan Gannon’s unit going forward. All of that said, this is a great deal for Jones.
Click here to get even more analysis from PFF's deal grader
Team-Friendly
The inverse of the above introductory paragraph applies here, as well. We are not forming our opinion solely based on whether a player signed a deal that lined up with our projection, but it is again a relevant data point.
With the team-friendly deals, we get a better understanding of the position markets as contracts are signed across the NFL, and we get a sense of the growth at the top, middle and lower veteran tiers of each position leaguewide. The leaguewide trends enhance our understanding of where the NFL sees markets going in the near future, or how they’re valuing different roles on offense and defense in the ever-changing game.
CB Kendall Fuller, Miami Dolphins
Contract: Two years, $15 million ($7.5 million per year), $7.975 million fully guaranteed, $10 million total guaranteed
There had been some reporting of knee issues for Fuller, an injury that kept him out of practice throughout the 2023 season. Perhaps that is what ultimately kept this number down a bit. However, Fuller has logged more than 1,000 snaps in three consecutive seasons and has played at a very high level, earning coverage grades above 75.0 in three straight seasons while amassing six interceptions and 26 pass breakups over the span.
Fuller also brings positional versatility as a former nickel cornerback and safety in prior seasons. Miami lost as much talent as anyone this offseason, with two players signing deals worth at least $100 million elsewhere, but we’ve loved the on-field fit and value of so many of their moves, including linebacker Jordyn Brooks and interior offensive lineman Aaron Brewer in addition to Fuller.
Click here to get even more analysis from PFF's deal grader
EDGE Josh Uche, New England Patriots
Contract: One year, $3 million, $2.3 million fully guaranteed (up to $8 million via incentives)
Every offseason, we hear about how “X player” could have signed a much stronger contract with a different team but, for whatever reason, he chose to stay with his original team or go to a different landing spot for a discount. However, I can’t remember the actual terms of an offer being revealed like they were in this instance, with Tom Pelissero tweeting that Uche turned down a two-year, $15 million contract with $11 million fully guaranteed. That context underscores just how much of a value this deal is for the New England Patriots.
Uche is currently a one-dimensional player as a designated pass rusher, but former New York Jets edge defender Bryce Huff was largely deployed in a similar role and signed a three-year, $51.1 million contract with the Philadelphia Eagles. Huff is bigger with a more filled-out frame, and he’s not as much of a liability against the run as the Patriots seem to think Uche is based on his deployment, but the contrast between these two deals is startling nonetheless.
Uche is lightning quick off the line when getting after the opposing quarterback, and that’s what gets you paid at this position, first and foremost. While 2023 was a bit of a step back, Uche notched 56 pressures and 11.5 sacks in 2022, with a pressure rate of almost 20% — a staggering number no matter the context of whether a player is utilized in pressure-friendly situations. This is a great deal to return for the New England Patriots.
Click here to get even more analysis from PFF's deal grader
S Kamren Curl, Los Angeles Rams
*Contract: Two years, up to $13 million*
*We have not seen the actual contract details here, but we’re more than comfortable saying this is a phenomenal value for the Los Angeles Rams.
Curl probably got dinged in the market not only because the safety market is always a gauntlet unless you’re a clear top player at the position but also because of a lack of ball production over the past three seasons, with zero interceptions since his rookie campaign. That said, Curl is extremely reliable at all three levels of the defense and is good at everything, even if he’s arguably not stellar at anything particular.
Over the past four seasons, Curl’s 85 defensive stops are the third most among all safeties. He is willing to get downhill and make plays at or near the line of scrimmage in addition to his coverage responsibilities, and the Los Angeles Rams got a very well-rounded young player on a great value deal.
Click here to get even more analysis from PFF's deal grader
LB Patrick Queen, Pittsburgh Steelers
Contract: Three years, $41 million ($13.67 million per year), $13.84 million fully guaranteed
Much was made of whether Queen benefited from the presence of linebacker Roquan Smith after the Ravens acquired the All-Pro at the trade deadline in 2022, but it’s not at all fair to suggest Queen didn’t also settle in and take his game to another level over the past two seasons. He has developed into one of the best blitzing linebackers in the entire NFL, with his 41 quarterback pressures over the past two seasons tying for second most at the position and his eight sacks ranking fourth.
Queen also got noticeably better in coverage, with his 74.8 coverage grade in 2023 more than double his coverage grade in his first two seasons. We see this a lot: Young linebackers in today’s game are picked on more than maybe any other position, constantly put in conflict between making plays in the run game or dropping to close second-level windows. Queen got better at not biting on play action so often and found his footing as an all-around linebacker.
With Queen earning Pro Bowl honors on the league's best defense in 2023, we envisioned he could have a free-agent market akin to the Chicago Bears signing Tremaine Edmunds to a four-year, $72 million contract last offseason. The draft pedigree, the athletic ability and the clear improvement as the game slowed down were evident for both players.
However, Pittsburgh was able to tether this deal to the second tier of linebacker contracts, which had a great resurgence overall this offseason. The win for Queen is signing only a three-year deal so that he can get another bite at the apple while he’s still young.
Click here to get even more analysis from PFF's deal grader
WR Marquise Brown, Kansas City Chiefs
Contract: One year, $7 million, $6.5 million fully guaranteed, up to $11 million via incentives
The rich get richer — how wonderful it is to be the back-to-back champions. We projected a lot of wide receivers to sign one-year fliers this offseason because it just so happened to work out that Brown, new Atlanta Falcon Darnell Mooney and new Jacksonville Jaguar Gabe Davis all missed time in 2023 and weren’t able to produce at their highest level. However, once Davis and Mooney signed very similar contracts with base values of three years and $39 million with around two-thirds fully guaranteed, we figured Marquise Brown would be looking at a three-year, $45 million deal or so, at a minimum.
We’ll never know what his market was looking like, but this is obviously a steal for Kansas City, which adds a speedy weapon who can win at the intermediate and deep levels and runs crisp routes with sudden breaks. When healthy in Arizona, Brown was fed targets at levels that rivaled any receiver in the NFL.
Nonetheless, there’s a very good chance that this will turn out to be a wise long-term career move for Brown. Two years ago the Chiefs signed wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster to a one-year, $3.76 million base value deal laden with incentives that saw him ultimately earn $10.2 million for the season. Smith-Schuster subsequently went on to sign a three-year, $25.5 million deal with the New England Patriots in free agency. Brown is hoping to cash in on all the incentives — which are arguably even more attainable than Smith-Schuster’s were — and sign a much bigger contract next offseason.
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