• Michael Penix Jr. displayed improved accuracy in his first start: His 22.9% uncatchable inaccurate pass rate in college was tied for the highest mark in the draft class. In his first NFL start, he posted an 11.5% clip.
• The Falcons control their destiny: The NFC South title will come down to whether Michael Penix Jr. can thrive in just his second and third NFL starts.
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Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
Michael Penix Jr. debuted as an NFL starter in Week 16, leading the Atlanta Falcons to a dominant victory over the New York Giants. It took a while for Penix to earn his first start, but he took the opportunity by the horns and had an extremely successful start to his career.
Highest-Graded Quarterbacks in Week 16
Penix finished the game with a 75.4 PFF overall grade — the highest debut mark of any rookie quarterback this season. His 80.8% adjusted completion percentage ranked seventh in Week 16, and he was one of eight quarterbacks with zero turnover-worthy plays. He looked the part of an NFL signal-caller in his first start.
A great sign for Penix’s development was his accuracy. It was an area of his game in college that needed the most improvement. His 22.9% uncatchable inaccurate pass rate was tied for the highest mark in the draft class, and that number was never below 21% during his college career. In his first NFL start, he posted an 11.5% clip. It's a small sample size, but it’s a great first step.
Penix came out firing right away, and his first completion was an impressive one.
Great first completion for Penix. Middle of the field, backside read, great ball placement. pic.twitter.com/9o1Hjt1BoE
— Nick Akridge (@PFF_NickAkridge) December 23, 2024
The Giants show a heavy-pressure look with both linebackers mugged up in the A-gaps. The pre-snap motion shows the Giants are playing man coverage, and Penix confirms that post-snap. He knows based on the outside leverage from the cornerback and with both linebackers blitzing that the in-breaking route from Drake London will be open. The Falcons end up doing a good job to pick up the pressure, which gives Penix the time he needs to convert on third down.
One of Penix’s best strengths is his arm talent. He has a cannon of a left arm, allowing him to make tight-window throws look easy.
Oh hello pic.twitter.com/3TNGKpS8Uz
— Nick Akridge (@PFF_NickAkridge) December 23, 2024
After a hard play-action fake, Penix gets his eyes up and recognizes a Cover-3 zone. There are two big keys for him here to make this throw. First, he understands that in this coverage the outside cornerback will bail quickly and not be in a great position to break on the ball. Second, he knows that with the play-action and the flat route from the running back, the underneath defender won’t be at the correct depth to help the outside cornerback. He takes in that information quickly and fires a rocket with great anticipation to hit Darnell Mooney on the sideline.
Penix was excellent on third down. He finished 7-of-11 for 91 yards, and the Falcons converted on eight of their 14 third downs.
Missile in stride pic.twitter.com/oL7zRbdkl0
— Nick Akridge (@PFF_NickAkridge) December 23, 2024
The pre-snap motion once again gives Penix a nice indicator of what the coverage will be. When the outside cornerback travels with the motion, he knows it will likely be man coverage — meaning he will have Mooney running an in-breaking route against outside leverage. Then, he only needs to worry about the underneath linebackers, making sure they aren’t in the throwing window. With one linebacker picking up the running back out of the backfield, he just needs to hold the other one with his eyes. He gives him a slight look off and then fires a missile in stride for another huge third-down conversion.
I already touched on Penix's accuracy being a concern coming out of college, but he was able to come out in his first start and actually use his accuracy as one of his biggest strengths.
A+ ball placement. Penix had a really solid debut pic.twitter.com/aJ1cY4ASAH
— Nick Akridge (@PFF_NickAkridge) December 23, 2024
This throw shows off multiple great aspects of quarterback play. The pre-snap motion gives Penix an idea of the coverage. With the Giants just shifting their defense with the motion instead of having one player follow the motioning receiver, Penix sees they are likely playing zone and, with it being single-high, it will be Cover-3. Cover-3 ends up being exactly what the Giants play, and after the play-action fake, Penix has all he needs to hit a deep crosser to Chris Blair. He knows the cornerback won’t have leverage, the underneath defenders will be occupied by the play action and the deep safety is too deep. To make this throw, he still needs to protect his receiver from the incoming defenders. He does exactly that, allowing Blair to shield himself from a hit when the ball is caught.
There was a lot of discussion around what the Falcons should do with their big free-agent signing, Kirk Cousins, underperforming. The move to a rookie quarterback with three weeks left in the season while chasing a division title is bold, but with how Penix was able to operate this offense in his first start, maybe it was the right choice. The Falcons will have a much tougher test this Sunday night against the Washington Commanders, but they control their destiny in the NFC South. If Penix can perform similarly to how he did in Week 16, the Falcons can host a playoff game.
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