• Jared Goff may be better when blitzed: His 66.7 PFF passing grade when blitzed ranks 13th among qualified quarterbacks — higher than his passing grade when not blitzed (54.1).
• Will the 49ers stick to Cover 3 against the Chiefs? San Francisco has run the coverage on 28.3% of defensive snaps, but to only a 54.9 overall grade — though Patrick Mahomes has struggled against it in 2024.
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Estimated Reading Time: 10 minutes
While the outcome of every football game is — in some way, shape or form — influenced by the 22 players on each team’s side, what adds an extra layer of nuance is examining the niche, micro-level battles that can define a result. That includes players or units battling head-to-head, or even defensive coaches trying to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Whether strength against strength, weakness against weakness or simply an individual war of great consequence, here are eight matchups with a significant probability of determining winners in Week 7.
Lions‘ Jared Goff vs. Brian Flores’ pressure packages
Despite being one of the NFL's most solid quarterbacks, Goff has regularly faltered when pockets break down. That lack of career success under duress hasn’t changed much in 2024: Among qualified quarterbacks, Goff’s 45.3 PFF passing grade under pressure ranks 21st.
But, there may actually be a silver lining. Even though his metrics under pressure are subpar, Goff has maybe been at his best when blitzed. His 66.7 {FF passing grade when blitzed ranks 13th among qualified quarterbacks — higher than his passing grade when not blitzed (54.1).
That might leave Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores in a bit of a bind. Minnesota’s 178 plays with a blitz are the second most in the NFL, and its 52.4% pass blitz rate is the highest in football. Flores’ defense is predicated on walking up positionless players, then rendering it a guessing game as to who will blitz. That formula has baffled almost every opposing quarterback this year, culminating in the best defensive EPA per play mark in football.
Goff fared well overall against Flores when the two matched up last year, notching passing grades of 73.4 or better each time and committing only one turnover-worthy play on 72 attempts. Indeed, Goff was surgical against the blitz, posting passing grades of 85.7 and 74.9 with extra rushers arriving.
Will Flores want to continue to make Goff uncomfortable — at least theoretically? Can the Vikings' defense hold up against a potent Detroit offense if it doesn’t bring heat? This chess match will be one of the most fascinating to follow this week.
Bengals’ pass rush vs. Browns’ offensive line
The battle for Ohio is back on in Week 7, but it certainly isn’t as glimmering as once thought. The 2-4 Bengals and 1-5 Browns have both underachieved in 2024.
Cleveland’s entire offense has been a trainwreck, sitting 31st in EPA per play. There are a slew of fingers to point, one of which is at the offensive line. The Browns’ unit ranks 30th in pass-blocking grade, with four starters already permitting 15-plus pressures.
On the flip side, Cincinnati’s defense hasn’t come close to living up to the billing. Lou Anarumo’s bunch ranks 26th in EPA per play against, and a key Achilles’ heel has been its pass rush. Even in fielding Trey Hendrickson, the Bengals’ front four ranks 28th in pass-rush win rate. As a team, Cincinnati’s 90 total pressures generated rank 20th.
Will Deshaun Watson have enough time to improve his nose-diving play, or will Hendrickson build on a solid Week 6 showing and wreak havoc? Whichever underwhelming unit prevails could certainly sway this divisional matchup.
Texans’ play action game vs. Packers’ coverage
One of several treats that Week 7 offers is Texans-Packers, a showdown between teams vying for titles but who haven’t always played the cleanest football this year. Still, we should see iron against iron when Houston has the ball — specifically on play-action passes.
Houston ranks fifth in EPA per play on play-action concepts, with Bobby Slowik establishing it as a staple of his offense. C.J. Stroud thrives on such calls, with his 76.5 PFF passing grade good for seventh among all quarterbacks on play action.
At the same time, the Packers have defended play action well. Green Bay’s team coverage grade on such concepts sits 10th. In particular, linebackers Eric Wilson and Edgerrin Cooper have stayed disciplined on Robot techniques: Both rank among the top 11 linebackers in PFF coverage grade on play action (minimum 10 snaps).
Will Stroud be able to weaponize Joe Mixon to target an open Tank Dell, Stefon Diggs or Dalton Schultz, or will Jeff Hafley and the Packers force an adjustment from Slowik? If the Texans can’t rely on their play-action passing game, the advantage could lean Green Bay.
Falcons' Kirk Cousins vs. Seahawks’ underneath coverage
Things may not have started fast in Atlanta, but they sure are rolling now, especially offensively. Over the past two weeks, the Falcons rank fifth in EPA per play, and Kirk Cousins has returned to the 2022-23 form we expected. Cousins sits fifth among quarterbacks in PFF passing grade since Week 4, throwing for a league-high 732 yards in that stretch with an 80% adjusted completion percentage.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks’ fast start has taken a wayward turn, largely due to its resurgent defense being victimized by the potent Lions and 49ers. The good news, however, is that Seattle might have some extinguishers at the ready in Week 7.
Cousins’ most targeted route this year is the hitch, but the Seahawks rank seventh as a team in coverage grade on such shorter, underneath routes. Cornerback Devon Witherspoon‘s 81.8 PFF coverage grade against that route sits 11th at the position. Likewise, Cousins has thrown to an out route as his second-most frequent target choice, but Seattle actually boasts the best coverage grade on outs.
Not having Tariq Woolen or Tre Brown — neither of whom practiced early in the week — would certainly throw a wrench in Seattle’s coverage effectiveness against Cousins’ preferences, but the Seahawks may still be able to challenge Cousins to beat the team elsewhere down the field.
Buccaneers’ explosive passive offense vs. Ravens’ secondary
The first game of Monday night’s twin billing offers a fun look at two of the better quarterbacks in the NFL this year, plus two teams vying for division crowns. While Tampa Bay’s ability to hem in Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry on the ground will be of utmost importance, what may ultimately determine game flow is how well Baltimore’s defense can hold up.
The Ravens rank 22nd in defensive EPA per play and 21st in team coverage grade, numbers that represent a disappointing start for Zach Orr as Baltimore’s new defensive coordinator. The most alarming trend is how much the unit has been gashed deep. The Ravens have allowed 46 explosive passing plays (15-plus yards) through six games, the most in the NFL. That weekly trend has yet to be bucked.
Meanwhile, that’s an area that Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers exploit regularly. Tampa’s 37 explosive passing plays are the fifth most in the NFL. Although the Bucs don’t pass deep a ton — just 5.8% of Mayfield’s attempts have been targeted 20-plus yards downfield — the team ranks second in total yards after the catch. Chris Godwin leads the entire NFL in yards after the catch, with 322 of his 510 yards coming once the ball is in his hands.
Will Marlon Humphrey, Brandon Stephens and Kyle Hamilton be able to tackle Godwin on the first try, or will the Buccaneers victimize a defense that has regularly surrendered chunk yards through the air?
Patrick Mahomes vs. the 49ers’ Cover 3
Point blank, Chiefs-49ers should be one of the most anticipated games of the season. While neither team is playing as well as it would like through six games — with injuries a contributing factor — this matchup still pits some of the sharpest minds and most skilled individual players against one another.
Maybe the most intriguing aspect of this showdown is how Mahomes and the Chiefs will try to answer the 49ers’ zone coverages. San Francisco has played Cover 3 on 28.3% of its defensive snaps, with Cover 4 and Cover 1 also holding a 20% share of calls. However, the 49ers haven’t played their most frequent look well: The team holds just a 54.9 PFF overall grade out of Cover 3, which ranks 26th.
At the same time, Mahomes hasn’t thrived with three defenders playing deep thirds this year. His 55.6 PFF passing grade against Cover 3 ranks 30th out of 38 qualifying quarterbacks. The two-time MVP has fared better against Quarters and Cover 1, recording passing grades over 72.0.
Part of the issue for Mahomes could be a lack of capable receivers to work behind linebackers or up seams, especially after losing Rashee Rice for the season to injury. Still, his three turnover-worthy plays against Cover 3 are the second most in the NFL.
Can Andy Reid help better scheme open receivers against the Cover 3-happy 49ers? How much will new defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen stick to three deep players instead of mixing and matching? That individual cat-and-mouse game will be very telling.
Jets’ defensive line vs. Steelers’ makeshift offensive line
It seemed a near certainty that the Jets would maintain their dominant stretch of defensive play in 2024. That’s been continued with New York sitting 10th in EPA per play, but not because of its once-vaunted defensive line.
The Jets’ front four is graded as the 22nd-ranked unit in the NFL, with its pass-rush win rate also sitting in 22nd. Only a single Jet — Will McDonald IV — has notched more than 20 pressures, and only one — Quinnen Williams — possesses a PFF overall grade above 65.0. Even then, 2024 has been a far cry for Williams, whose overall grade has dropped nearly 35 points and whose pass-rush win rate has dipped by almost 10 percentage points.
However, New York might get an opportunity to right its wrongs on Sunday Night Football. The Steelers will presumably be without rookie center Zach Frazier, who ranks fourth in overall grade at the position. That means Pittsburgh will start three backups along its right side: Ryan McCollum at center, rookie Mason McCormick at right guard and Broderick Jones at right tackle. None of those players has recorded a PFF overall grade above 65.0.
Can the Jets disrupt Russell Wilson in what should be his first start of the year, or will Pittsburgh — whose offensive line ranks 24th in PFF pass-blocking grade — fend off a talented group with a ragtag bunch?
Raiders’ lackluster passing offense vs. Rams’ pass defense
There isn’t much hype surrounding Raiders-Rams, with neither team appearing poised to compete for the postseason this year. But this matchup will still indicate a lot about trajectory — both in 2024 and moving forward.
If the Raiders want to salvage a dismal start under Antonio Pierce, they’ll need their passing offense to make major strides, albeit sans Davante Adams. Las Vegas' offense ranks 22nd or worse in PFF team passing grade, passing yards per attempt and EPA per passing attempt. Neither Gardner Minshew nor Aidan O’Connell has secured a PFF passing grade above 65.0, and the only Vegas pass-catchers with above-average receiving grades are Brock Bowers (83.8) and Jakobi Meyers (71.7).
The book on the Rams has been injuries for most of the year, but the team’s defense has been a colossal disappointment after losing Raheem Morris. Los Angeles ranks last in team EPA per play, 29th in successful play percentage and 28th in scoring drive allowed. Much of that stems from holding a 44.8 PFF coverage grade, which ranks 31st.
If the Raiders can protect O’Connell against rookie standout Jared Verse, Bowers may continue to wreak havoc over the middle of the field. Yet, this is about as close to a get-right game as Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula could ask for, especially with Las Vegas likely without Jakobi Meyers another week — primarily relying on Bowers, Tre Tucker, D.J. Turner and Alex Bachman at receiver or tight end.
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