• Can the Bears stop Kyler Murray in the fourth quarter? The star ranks ninth among all offensive players in fourth-quarter PFF grade (82.3), but Chicago's defense has been the NFL's best in the final period.
• Will the Colts run inside zone well in Minnesota? Indianapolis' inside-zone rate is the second highest in football, and the Vikings have struggled to stop the concept.
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Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes
While the outcome of every football game is — in some way, shape or form — influenced by the 22 players on each team’s side, what adds an extra layer of nuance is examining the niche, micro-level battles that can define a result. That includes players or units battling head-to-head, or even defensive coaches trying to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Week 8’s focus on Jalen Hurts against the Bengals’ pressure (only under duress on 13.6% of snaps) and the Bears’ deep passing (Caleb Williams completed 1-of-5 deep attempts) played significant roles in determining game outcomes. Now, let’s turn the page to Week 9.
Whether strength against strength, weakness against weakness or simply an individual war of great consequence, here are eight matchups with a significant probability of determining winners this week.
Kyler Murray’s fourth-quarter magic vs. the Bears
At 4-4, the Cardinals have been one of the more tenacious and, frankly, enjoyable teams to watch this year. Facing a deficit in the fourth quarter hasn’t been an issue, with Arizona erasing holes against the 49ers, Chargers and Dolphins to snatch victories from the jaws of defeat.
That’s largely fueled by Kyler Murray, who’s been spectacular in the final period. Murray’s 78.5 PFF passing grade in the fourth quarter ranks fifth among qualifying quarterbacks, and he sports a 7.2% big-time throw rate, which sits third. The star ranks ninth among all offensive players in fourth-quarter PFF grading (82.3).
At the same time, the Bears could finally buck that trend. Chicago boasts the best fourth-quarter defense in the NFL by EPA per play and successful play percentage. Yes, the Bears lost in cataclysmic fashion on a Jayden Daniels Hail Mary in Week 8, but that type of performance is very much an aberration.
If the Bears can hem in Murray and company in the game's final stages, Chicago could have the advantage in what figures to be an air-tight battle between two playoff hopefuls.
Broncos’ passing offense vs. Ravens’ secondary
The Ravens suffered one of the more improbable losses of the entire season by falling to the lowly Browns — led by Jameis Winston — in Week 8. The major pitfall for Baltimore was its secondary, which permitted Winston to record 334 passing yards, three touchdowns and a 74.9 PFF passing grade. Winston completed 3-of-5 deep attempts, securing a 77.1 passing grade and two touchdowns.
Deep passing has been Baltimore’s Achilles' heel all year. The Ravens have faced the second-most deep attempts (49) in 2024 and have allowed the most explosive passes — 13 more than any other team.
The dilemma for the Broncos in Week 9 is that explosive passing is not a strength. They have generated only 37 explosive passes this year, sitting 24th in explosive pass percentage (11.4%). Rookie Bo Nix has actually been spectacular on deep passes, ranking eighth with a 90.1 PFF passing grade, but only 33.4% of his passes have gone for 10 or more yards.
Teams seem to have their way with Baltimore if they can limit the Ravens’ unstoppable rushing attack as well as pick apart the secondary. The Broncos may be able to mitigate Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry on the ground, but the latter may prove the determinant in this one.
Justin Herbert’s intermediate passing vs. Browns’ intermediate coverage
Justin Herbert has been remarkable over the past few weeks, leading the NFL with a 90.9 PFF passing grade since Week 6. Part of his season-long success stems from thriving in the intermediate (10-to-19-yard) range. Herbert’s 91.7 passing grade on intermediate throws sits fourth among quarterbacks with 200 or more dropbacks, with the star tossing six big-time throws compared to making only one turnover-worthy play.
It’s been a disappointing season for the Browns' defense, but the team has done well to neutralize intermediate throws. Cleveland’s 53.8 team coverage grade on intermediate attempts is the third best in the NFL. Cornerback Denzel Ward has been especially stingy in that range, with his 91.0 coverage grade ranking fourth in the NFL.
If Herbert can find his rhythm with Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston in the intermediate part of the field, then the Chargers may be able to move the ball. But if not, the Browns could pull off a second straight upset.
Jayden Daniels’ play-action passing vs. Giants
There don’t appear to be many ways to contain the Commanders — just ask the Bears, who did as good a job as anyone all year but still lost because of a Hail Mary. Washington still leads the NFL in EPA per play, and a major anchor has been its play-action game. Daniels’ 93.7 PFF overall grade is the second highest of any quarterback on play action, where the rookie has completed 73.3% of his passes and averaged 9.3 yards per attempt.
The Giants will have a tall task in Week 9, but the team may be able to rely on its play-action defense. New York sits eighth in EPA per play against play action, allowing only 10 explosive passing plays all year (tied for fifth fewest).
When these two teams squared off in Week 2, Daniels completed all eight of his play-action attempts for 63 yards but was held without a big-time throw, recording just a 60.0 PFF passing grade. If the Giants' defense can stand tall against play fakes, they may have a fighting shot in Week 9.
PFF Passing Grade Leaders on Play Action
Jared Goff vs. Packers’ stunts
The first edition of Lions-Packers in 2024 pits two of the best teams in the NFL against one another with divisional standings at stake. Both teams are quite good in multiple departments — and possess arguably two of the best offensive minds in football — but the Packers may differentiate themselves based on their defensive structure.
In his first year as Green Bay’s defensive coordinator, Jeff Hafley has made stunts a staple. The Packers rank third in plays with a stunt and have allowed the ninth-lowest passer rating in football when adding pressure with twists or misdirection. Altogether, Green Bay’s defense ranks fourth in EPA per play when utilizing a stunt.
On the other end of the line of scrimmage, Jared Goff hasn’t been marvelous when his offensive line has navigated rushers from different angles. Goff’s 59.4 PFF passing grade against stunts ranks 19th among qualifying quarterbacks, including a 5.7% turnover-worthy play rate (11th highest).
Every NFC North intra-divisional contest feels like a true war, and the Lions attained early answers by handling the blitzes of Brian Flores and the Vikings. If Goff can fare effectively enough against Hafley’s stunt looks, the Lions could roar to 7-1 and stake their claim for first place.
Colts’ inside-zone running game vs. Vikings’ defense
The overarching storyline of this Sunday Night Football showdown will be the Colts moving from Anthony Richardson to Joe Flacco under center. Although Flacco’s performance against Flores’ stout defense will prove enormous, so too will the Colts’ running game.
Indianapolis runs inside zone on 41% of its attempts, the second-highest rate in football. At the same time, the Colts average only 3.0 yards per play on inside zone (28th) and have a 28.8% success rate, which ranks 20th. Of the 13 players with 25 or more inside-zone carries, star Jonathan Taylor’s 56.0 PFF rushing grade ranks 12th.
However, the Vikings haven’t performed effectively against that look. Minnesota allows 5.3 yards per carry on inside zone runs (30th) with a 34.4% success rate (19th).
If Indianapolis can establish its inside-zone run game behind a dominant offensive line, it could open up comfortable play-action looks for Flacco. If not, though, the Vikings may be able to force obvious passing downs, pin their ears back and stick to their tried-and-true pressure scheme.
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