• Will the Lions' play-action passing be as strong against the Vikings? If Detroit wants to keep the No. 1 seed, it will need to maintain its effectiveness against a Minnesota defense that defends play action well.
• How will Carson Wentz handle the blitz? The Broncos have blitzed at the third-highest rate this year, but Wentz excelled against extra rushers in his last start.
• 2025 NFL Draft season is here: Try PFF's best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2025's top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.
Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes
While the outcome of every football game is influenced by the 22 players on each team’s side, the niche, micro-level battles add an extra layer of nuance. That includes players or units battling head-to-head, or even defensive coaches trying to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Before a brief holiday hiatus, Week 16’s focus on Jayden Daniels under pressure (70.4 PFF overall grade, two big-time throws) and Steelers tight ends against the Ravens (six targets for 20 yards) were impactful in determining which teams won two weeks ago. Although fewer teams are playing with intentionality in Week 18, there are still elements in each matchup that could decide if upsets keep contenders out of the postseason.
Whether strength against strength, weakness against weakness or simply an individual war of great consequence, here are six matchups with a significant probability of determining winners this week.
Lions’ play-action passing vs. Vikings
The centerpiece of Week 18 is Vikings-Lions on Sunday Night Football, which actually brings this series full circle: The first edition of “matchups” discussed Jared Goff’s play against the blitz in Week 7. Goff will certainly need to get the ball out fast against pressure yet again, but another angle to watch is Detroit’s play action.
The Lions have effectively been the NFL’s best play-action team all year. Detroit ranks first in play-action success rate and EPA per play, not to mention second in team offensive grade. Additionally, Goff’s 88.1 play-action passing grade ranks sixth among qualifiers.
However, Minnesota has been equally stingy against play-action looks. The Vikings slot second in EPA per play and success rate on play action. At the same time, the team’s coverage on play action hasn’t been quite as effective, sitting only 17th. Brian Flores’ defense hasn’t had much luck with getting home on play action either, generating just the 22nd-best sack rate.
In the first matchup between these powerhouses, the Lions ran play action 11 times to the tune of 11 yards per play and a 54.5% success rate. Likewise, Goff recorded a 72.6 PFF passing grade, zero turnover-worthy plays and no sacks on play action against the Vikings.
If Detroit’s play-action pass game continues to churn, it should allow the Lions to keep up with Minnesota’s high-powered offense in a shootout — but if not, the Vikings could easily seize the NFC’s No. 1 seed.
Bengals’ RPO offense vs. Steelers
Saturday night’s matchup between the Bengals and Steelers presents a red-hot Cincinnati team against a strong Steelers squad looking to correct course before the playoffs. Keep an eye on the Bengals’ use of RPOs in this one.
Pittsburgh’s defense has been a legitimate liability during the team’s three-game skid, ranking 27th in EPA per play and 24th in success rate allowed in that span. A lot of those issues have stemmed from communication and coverage integrity, where RPOs can victimize a unit. The Steelers rank 29th in RPO success rate and EPA per play this season. They have given up 14 first downs on RPOs over just the past three weeks — six more than the next-closest team.
Meanwhile, the Bengals’ fantastic offense hasn’t turned heavily to RPOs all year, running just 60 (22nd). Cincinnati hasn’t been especially efficient on the concepts either: The Bengals place 31st in RPO EPA per play, and Joe Burrow’s 57.6 PFF passing grade on RPOs sits 34th out of 43 qualified quarterbacks. He has attempted only 12 RPO throws all year.
Even as the Bengals were in regular rhythm against Pittsburgh in Week 13, Zac Taylor and offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher called only one RPO, relying more on a traditional dropback passing game (where Burrow has excelled all year). Will Cincinnati’s offensive braintrust capitalize on a Pittsburgh defensive weakness? And if so, will the Steelers make the necessary fixes after nine days of rest?
Carson Wentz when blitzed vs. Broncos
Although few of Sunday’s matchups carry tremendous playoff implications, the game with the most ramifications is Chiefs-Broncos in the late window. If the Broncos want to win and lock down the AFC’s final playoff spot, they’ll need to be careful about blitzing Carson Wentz, who is poised to start in place of Patrick Mahomes.
Wentz has played only nine snaps this year, including taking three dropbacks. That offers a very limited sample size of what to expect from the former Philadelphia Eagle, but one can look at his last start in Week 18 of 2023 against the 49ers. Wentz was generally terrific, especially on blitzes — where he went 7-of-7 with a 90.9 PFF overall grade, one big-time throw, zero turnover-worthy plays and only one sack taken.
Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has galvanized the team’s defense with the third-highest blitz rate in the NFL, but those calls haven’t always been favorable. The Broncos rank just 12th in EPA per play and 19th in success rate when extra rushers are sent, both below what one would expect for a defense that’s been stout for most of the year.
In a frenetic Week 17 showdown, Joe Burrow carved up Denver’s blitz, completing 21-of-29 attempts for two big-time throws, zero turnover-worthy plays and an 86.3 PFF overall grade on 31 dropbacks. Will Joseph keep sending the heat at Wentz, who basically hasn’t played in a year? And will that strategy pay off? If the backup-heavy Chiefs end up pulling off the upset, Wentz’s work against the blitz will likely be a major reason.
Jets‘ outside-zone rushing vs. Dolphins
The Dolphins will be pulling especially hard for Wentz and the Chiefs, but they also need to take care of business on the road against the Jets. For Mike McDaniel’s bunch, the focus should be on New York’s outside-zone rushing.
Even though the Jets rank 26th in team rushing grade, they have been efficient on outside zone, which the offense has turned to on 44% of runs. The Jets place sixth in EPA per play, seventh in success rate and 14th in team rushing grade when implementing outside zone. Rookie Braelon Allen ranks 10th among qualifying rushers with a 78.2 PFF rushing grade on those concepts, performing better than Breece Hall (63.4).
Yet, the Dolphins have shut down outside-zone runs for most of the season. Miami ranks first in team run-defense grade, ninth in EPA per play, 10th in success rate and second in yards before contact per carry against outside zone.
The war to watch in this one is who wins the line of scrimmage because both teams have decisive advantages in either area. The Jets are ninth in average yards per carry after contact on outside zone, while the Dolphins rank just 26th in that department. Meanwhile, New York sits only 17th in yards before contact per carry.
If the Dolphins can get to Allen and Hall early, it would put them in a good position to win. But if not, the Jets might be able to thwart Miami’s playoff hopes by keeping runs alive.
Spencer Rattler throwing past the sticks vs. Buccaneers
If the Buccaneers take down the beaten-up Saints, they’ll secure their fourth straight NFC South title. To do so, they’ll need to ensure their vulnerable defense holds up against Rattler.
Tampa Bay’s coverage has been a problem all season, ranking 20th in team grade. That’s especially true on throws past the sticks, where the Buccaneers are 26th in EPA per play, 27th in success rate and 28th in passer rating allowed.
At the same time, Rattler (51.3 PFF passing grade) hasn’t performed admirably in his rookie season, including on attempts beyond the first-down marker. Rattler’s 69.1 PFF passing grade on throws past the sticks sits 36th out of 43 qualified quarterbacks, and his 8.6% turnover-worthy play rate is the third-highest clip in the NFL.
Will Todd Bowles’ pressure looks overwhelm Rattler and keep him from attempting accurate throws downfield? Or will the rookie hang in and take advantage of a bad secondary on deeper attempts? In these rivals’ first go-around in Week 6, Rattler went 9-of-17 for 179 yards, one big-time throw, one turnover-worthy play and a 71.2 PFF passing grade on throws past the sticks. If that holds, the Buccaneers could be in for a closer game than they’d like.
Michael Penix Jr. throwing outside the numbers vs. Panthers
The Falcons’ last gasp at making the playoffs comes down to them beating the Panthers and Tampa Bay shockingly slipping up against the Saints, but never say never. Atlanta’s odds would increase even more if Penix plays better in his bread-and-butter passing strategy: outside the numbers.
Since his first NFL start in Week 16, Penix has attempted 41 passes outside the numbers, the third most in the league in that span. That’s not astounding, considering that approach worked wonders for him in college at Washington. What is unexpected, though, is that Penix hasn’t been very effective on those passes. He’s notched only a 57.7 PFF passing grade on throws outside the numbers so far, good for 29th out of 32 qualifiers.
On the other side of the line of scrimmage, the Panthers' defense has been a mess all season. That extends to perimeter coverage: Carolina ranks 26th in team coverage grade and 29th in passer rating allowed on throws to the far sides of the field. Linebacker Josey Jewell (who didn’t play in Week 17 and hasn’t practiced so far this week) is the only Panther inside the top 100 of qualified defenders in outside-the-numbers coverage grade.
Will Penix and Atlanta’s vertical-threat playmakers find their footing outside the hashes, or will Jaycee Horn and Carolina’s defense show some growth in its final opportunity of 2024? Atlanta has a myriad of methods to win this game, but hitting on those specific passing chances would help enormously.
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