• Can the Chargers get separation against the Chiefs? Expected to be without Ladd McConkey, Los Angeles will need its receivers to beat Kansas City's subpar man coverage.
• Will the Rams' pistol offense work against the Bills? Los Angeles has used the pistol at the third-highest rate, but Buffalo has played like a top-10 defense against the alignment.
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Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes
While the outcome of every football game is influenced by the 22 players on each team’s side, examining the niche, micro-level battles adds an extra layer of nuance. That includes players or units battling head-to-head, or even defensive coaches trying to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Week 13’s focus on the Eagles’ pass protection (only five pressures allowed) and the Steelers’ red-zone offense (2-for-3 in scoring red-zone touchdowns) played large roles in dictating which teams won. Now, let’s flip the script to Week 14.
Whether strength against strength, weakness against weakness or simply an individual war of great consequence, here are six matchups with a significant probability of determining winners this week.
Sam Darnold vs. Falcons‘ 3 Seam coverage
The elephant in the room for this matchup is Kirk Cousins’ return to Minnesota, and for good reason. The intensity is ramping up for Cousins, especially following his four-interception outing against the Chargers in Week 13. At the same time, the quarterback strolling the other sidelines is also highly compelling.
Sam Darnold has unquestionably been one of the league's more improved passers this year, bumping his PFF passing grade to a career-high 80.5 mark — which ranks seventh among qualifiers. He’s had tremendous success against most coverages, including 3 Seam — effectively, Cover 3 but hook defenders matching vertical routes in their areas. Darnold’s 80.1 PFF passing grade against 3 Seam ranks seventh, but he’s only faced it eight times.
Meanwhile, the Falcons operate almost entirely from a three-high shell, running either Cover 3 or 3 Seam 41.8% of the time. Atlanta’s penchant for 3 Seam is the highest in the NFL, at a 13.4% clip. The Falcons have also tacked on the fifth-best PFF coverage grade (73.3) from that look.
Darnold has played well against 3 Seam, but will the more zone match look throw him off? And will Falcons defensive coordinator Jimmy Lake stick to a primarily Cover 3/3 Seam look, knowing that Darnold has fared well against it? How well the Falcons can limit Darnold’s big-time throws will dictate if they can right the ship in Week 14.
Chargers‘ receivers vs. Chiefs‘ man coverage
The Chiefs have all but locked up the AFC West for the ninth straight season, but their second matchup with the Chargers still offers a potential playoff preview. What will also be showcased Sunday night is which side can prevail in man coverage.
This year, Los Angeles receivers rank 31st in cumulative receiving grade against man coverage. That’s despite rookie Ladd McConkey having been one of the league’s best wideouts against man, ranking fourth in PFF receiving grade. But with McConkey looking improbable to play, Justin Herbert will look to target Joshua Palmer and Quentin Johnston — whose 43.5 PFF receiving grade against man places dead last among 95 qualified receivers.
On the other side, Chiefs defenders haven’t been extremely stout in man, either. Kansas City ranks only 22nd in man coverage grade, and the parallels are uncanny in how that breaks down. Jaylen Watson’s 90.0 PFF coverage grade in man places fourth among all qualified defenders, but he hasn't played since Week 7 due to a fractured ankle. Watson is the only Chiefs defender ranked inside the top 100.
Will Steve Spagnuolo rely on man coverage against a shorthanded receiver room, and will Los Angeles be able to take advantage? If Herbert’s targets aren’t getting open, the task becomes much more Herculean for the Chargers’ elite defense.
Chargers Receivers vs. Man Coverage
Cardinals‘ late-down offense vs. Seahawks
After soaring to a 6-4 record, the Cardinals’ feel-good season has taken a bit of a wayward turn over the past two weeks, with Arizona losing road games to the Seahawks and Vikings. A big reason is the team’s late-down offense, which started to struggle in Week 12 in Seattle.
Over the past two weeks, the Cardinals rank 32nd in conversion rate (at just 33.3%) and 30th in successful play rate on third and fourth downs. Those woes have dovetailed with an offense that places only 24th in EPA per play in that span. The late-down numbers are a far cry from where Arizona was earlier in the year, sitting tied for ninth in late-down conversion rate (44.4%) from Weeks 1-10.
Seattle’s defense has been slightly better than average when faced with late-down situations all year. The Seahawks slot 14th in conversion rate and 15th in success rate on third and fourth downs. But Mike Macdonald’s group hunkered down in Week 12, holding the Cardinals to a dismal 23.1% late-down conversion mark.
Will Kyler Murray and Arizona be able to better move the chains — and avoid turnovers, as their three on late downs is tied for the most in the past two weeks? Or will Seattle notch its seventh straight win over Arizona — and gain a two-game lead in the NFC West — by staying off the field defensively?
Bryce Young’s intermediate passing vs. Eagles
There haven’t been many better feel-good stories over the past month than the resurgence of Bryce Young, who has returned from being benched and played like a fringe top-10 quarterback since. However, a major test looms this week against one of the NFL’s best in the Eagles.
One department where Young has thrived since his return is on intermediate (10-to-19 yards) passes. His 88.5 intermediate passing grade since Week 10 ranks fourth. In that span, the second-year quarterback has posted a 61.3% adjusted completion percentage, with three big-time throws and zero turnover-worthy plays.
The Eagles are stout in almost every department, which explains them slotting fifth in defensive EPA per play. Interestingly enough, intermediate passes haven’t been quite as much of a forte, with Philadelphia ranking 12th in PFF overall grade against those attempts. Safety Reed Blankenship grades as the 13th-best defender (excluding defensive linemen/edge rushers) versus such looks.
Will Young be courageous enough to throw into a middle of the field guarded by Zack Baun, and will his receivers find space in the intermediate range? If so, the Panthers could put up a fight against a juggernaut in Lincoln Financial Field. If not, this contest could get lopsided.
Highest-Graded Intermediate Passers Since Week 10
Rams‘ pistol offense vs. Bills
At 6-6, the Rams are still alive in a frenetic NFC West race. A daunting task lies ahead in facing the red-hot Bills, who have performed well in a look where Los Angeles is comfortable.
As is often true with the Matthew Stafford-Sean McVay pairing, the Rams have leaned heavily on the pistol on offense this year. Los Angeles ranks third in pistol percentage, at 17.6%, with an accompanying success rate that places 12th. Stafford’s 66.9 PFF passing grade in the pistol ranks 12th among qualifiers, and he’s also compiled the second-most pistol dropbacks.
The well-rounded Bills defense, though, has fared well against pistol offenses this year. Buffalo ranks ninth in EPA per play and 10th in success rate against the pistol. In two games against the Dolphins — who have implemented pistol on 26.7% of offensive snaps this year — the Bills allowed 5.3 yards per play but permitted a 42% success rate.
The Rams have already dropped significant home matchups to the Eagles and Dolphins in recent weeks, with time running thin to keep pace atop the division. If Stafford and McVay can find success against a fierce defense by turning to the pistol, then Los Angeles may do enough to compile a late-season winning streak. But if not, it’s hard to envision the Rams keeping pace with the high-powered Bills.
Bengals‘ pass rush vs. Cowboys‘ offensive line
Bengals-Cowboys on Monday Night Football doesn’t hold the same gravity as anticipated heading into the year, but it does provide a glimpse into two prominent coaches on two teams desperately trying to stave off elimination. In particular, how these teams perform in the trenches when Dallas has the ball will be significant.
The Bengals’ pass rush has been lackluster all season — and is arguably one of the biggest reasons the team sits at 4-8. Although Trey Hendrickson (59 pressures, 86.4 PFF overall grade) has been one of the NFL’s more unstoppable edge defenders, Cincinnati hasn’t generated anything outside of the star. Hendrickson is the only Bengal to record a pass-rush win rate above 10%, and the team’s front four ranks 29th in pass-rushing productivity.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ offensive line regression has played a critical role in the team’s 5-7 record. Dallas ranks 25th in pass protection, and the team’s replacements for veterans haven’t filled in as aptly as their predecessors. Rookie left tackle Tyler Guyton has recorded only a 57.1 PFF pass-blocking grade, and rookie center Cooper Beebe hasn’t been much better (60.3).
Will a Bengal other than Hendrickson — such as B.J. Hill or Sam Hubbard — play at a disruptive level, or will the Cowboys be able to protect Cooper Rush against an underwhelming defense? Hendrickson is capable of being a one-man wrecking crew, but his work alone might not be enough for the Bengals to prevail.
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