• Will Geno Smith find deep passing success against the Cardinals? Smith ranks seventh in deep passing grade, but Arizona has been one of the most stout defenses in shutting down the long ball.
• How will Caleb Williams play against the blitz-heavy Vikings? Nobody blitzes more than Minnesota, but Williams has fared well when teams send extra rushers.
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Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes
While the outcome of every football game is influenced by the 22 players on each team’s side, examining the niche, micro-level battles that can define a result adds an extra layer of nuance. That includes players or units battling head-to-head, or even defensive coaches trying to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Week 11’s focus on the Steelers stopping Lamar Jackson’s scrambling (zero scrambles for zero yards) and the Falcons’ outside-zone rushing attack (11 carries for 26 yards and zero first downs) played large roles in dictating which teams won. Now, let’s flip the script to Week 12.
Whether strength against strength, weakness against weakness or simply an individual war of great consequence, here are six matchups with a significant probability of determining winners this week.
Josh Jacobs vs. 49ers’ heavy boxes
Arguably the biggest game of this week’s NFL slate comes during Sunday’s second window, where the 5-5 49ers look to get their season back on track before the hourglass runs out of sand. To defeat the 7-3 Packers, they’ll need to make a concerted effort to stop Josh Jacobs, one of the NFL’s best running backs this year. That may be easier said than done from a schematic standpoint.
The 49ers have generally floundered all year when trying to load up the box to stop the run. San Francisco ranks 29th in yards before contact allowed when eight or more players are in the box, not to mention 25th in explosive run rate. The 49ers have utilized eight-plus defenders in the box on runs on 100 plays, the 14th most in the league.
On the flip side, Jacobs has not fared well when dealing with a clogged middle of the field. His 66.1 PFF rushing grade with eight or more box defenders ranks 28th among qualifying rushers. Contrast that with his 90.2 PFF rushing grade with seven or fewer box players, which ranks fourth, and it’s clear where he thrives.
Will Jacobs find a way to finally crack through loaded boxes, opening up more through the air for Jordan Love and Green Bay? Or will the 49ers stack the box and slow Jacobs enough in what figures to be a high-scoring game? Whichever side wins this in-game clash should get the edge.
Geno Smith’s deep passing vs. Cardinals
We rarely see a wide-open NFL division through 11 weeks in a season, but that’s precisely what the NFC West has been this year. Sunday’s battle between the Cardinals and Seahawks will be monumental in shaking out the division’s pecking order — and it may come down to Geno Smith’s deep ball.
Smith’s 93.0 deep passing grade ranks seventh among qualified quarterbacks, and his 13 big-time throws are tied for the fourth most. After all, when you have D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba at your disposal, it makes sense to lean heavily on vertical routes down the field.
But, the Cardinals have actually been quite stingy against 20-plus-yard attempts. Arizona ranks fourth in EPA per play allowed against deep passes while placing second in team coverage grade. Rising second-year cornerback Garrett Williams is the NFL’s highest-graded defender on deep attempts, posting an elite 92.8 PFF coverage grade. Only two of Williams’ nine deep targets have been caught, and the Syracuse product has racked up three forced incompletions and a pick.
Will other Arizona defenders join the team’s upstart slot man in deep passing success, or will Smith launch to his crop of wideouts down the field for explosive gains? If the Cardinals don’t get gashed through the air, they’ll have a real shot to stay atop the NFC West the rest of the year; but if not, the Seahawks could get right back to first place.
Highest-Graded Deep Passers in 2024
Eagles’ defense vs. Rams‘ out routes
Sunday Night Football offers us a second straight enticing battle from SoFi Stadium, especially factoring in the strength of the Eagles' defense against the Rams’ high-powered offense. Particularly interesting is how well Philadelphia will handle Los Angeles' most regular pass concept: the out route.
Matthew Stafford has targeted out routes 56 times, the second most in football. On top of that, his 77.6 PFF passing grade on out routes ranks 11th. It shouldn’t be a surprise to learn that Cooper Kupp’s 17 out-route targets are the seventh most in football and that his 76.0 PFF receiving grade is a top-30 mark among all pass-catchers on the concept.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s revitalized defense has clamped down against out routes. The Eagles rank 10th in team coverage grade against outs, led by the standout play of rookie Cooper DeJean. DeJean has been one of the NFL’s best defenders against out routes, regardless of position. His 87.6 PFF coverage grade against the concept ranks fourth, having permitted only two catches for nine yards on six out-route targets.
How much will DeJean shadow Kupp and Puka Nacua, and can he close space outside the numbers? Or will Stafford get in rhythm along the boundary before dialing up deeper shots? If the Rams want to pull off the upset and earn a crucial conference win, they’ll need their quarterback and receivers to excel in the precise areas where they dominate.
Caleb Williams vs. Vikings’ blitz
Although the Bears fell at the hands of their nemesis yet again in Week 11, the team’s showing was actually quite encouraging — especially from Williams, who posted a stellar 85.2 PFF overall grade. Now, the No. 1 overall pick gets another crack at beating a talented rival, especially if he can handle the blitz.
Williams was marvelous when Green Bay sent an extra rusher last week, completing 8-of-10 passes for 87 yards and a big-time throw to secure a 94.5 PFF overall grade. He has dealt with blitzes well all year, as his 70.9 PFF overall grade when blitzed ranks 13th and is considerably higher than his grade when not blitzed (60.2). One tool in Williams’ box against the blitz is running: His 75.7 PFF rushing grade in such situations is tied for ninth.
Brian Flores’ philosophy is clear: blitz early and often. The Vikings own the highest blitz rate in the league (50.5%). Given the versatility and near-positionless nature of many Minnesota defenders, it feels like almost any Viking can come from any angle at any time. That’s fueled Minnesota to rank seventh in EPA per play and fourth in success rate when blitzing.
Will Williams string together two impressive outings against premier divisional defenses, especially standing tall against pressure? Or will Flores’ complex looks speed up the rookie’s internal clock? In a game featuring two stout defenses, Williams will need to step up if the Bears want to end their four-game skid.
Lamar Jackson vs. Chargers’ zone coverage
The Chargers entered Week 11 with a near-unblemished stretch of defensive play. That changed considerably, though, after the Bengals scored 27 points and averaged 0.123 EPA per play in Los Angeles on primetime. After securing a narrow win, the Chargers get another crack at one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks — who also presents a major headache against one of the team’s fortitudes.
Lamar Jackson sits atop several notable advanced categories, including leading the league in PFF overall and passing grades. That extends to his play against zone coverage, where Jackson has been the best quarterback in the NFL (90.4 PFF passing grade). Likewise, Jackson has committed a turnover-worthy play on just 1.1% of attempts against zone, the lowest rate in the NFL.
However, the Chargers are an extremely zone-heavy team, running either Cover 2, 3 or 4 on 65.1% of their snaps. That formula has generally worked for Jesse Minter’s bunch, with Los Angeles posting the fifth-best zone coverage grade of any team. Even as Joe Burrow unleashed several big-time throws in SoFi Stadium, he was held in check against zone. The Bengals passer completed 20-of-36 attempts for 223 yards, two big-time throws, one turnover-worthy play and a 67.2 PFF passing grade against zone. All told, those numbers are pedestrian for a player of his caliber.
Jackson is coming off his worst game of the season, largely because of weakened effectiveness against the Steelers’ man coverage. But, Los Angeles has run Cover 1 on only 8.3% of its defensive snaps. Will Minter stay true to his zone-rooted identity, or will he sprinkle in more man — and how will Jackson react? The Ravens quarterback’s play against cloud coverage will drive how this potential playoff matchup goes.
Anthony Richardson’s straight dropbacks vs. Lions
Although Colts-Jets in Week 11 wasn’t a marquee matchup, it did reveal a rather notable development: an improved Anthony Richardson. The second-year signal-caller generated an 80.3 PFF passing grade, the best in his 11-game NFL career so far. Now, Richardson will oppose an even stingier defense in the Lions, whose well-rounded attack may cause problems.
Part of why Richardson was much better in Week 11 was his play outside of play action. His 90.0 PFF overall grade on 17 dropbacks (compared to 15 play-action dropbacks) was the second highest of any starting quarterback last week. He completed 11-of-15 such passes for 172 yards, a big-time throw and zero turnover-worthy plays. Along similar lines, Richardson was also terrific when not throwing to screens, securing an 81.7 PFF overall grade.
However, Detroit has been among the NFL’s best defenses in those scenarios. The Lions rank seventh in EPA per play in non-play action dropbacks and are fourth in non-screen looks.
Will Shane Steichen lean toward more traditional attempts for Richardson, where he clearly looked more comfortable? Or will the Colts try more play action, where Richardson has been better all year — posting a 61.7 PFF overall grade compared to a 53.6 mark on standard dropbacks? Richardson’s nuanced performance and Indianapolis’ play-calling will determine if the Colts can execute a tremendous upset at home.
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