• Will Lamar Jackson be able to scramble against the Steelers? Jackson ranks second in scramble yardage this season, but the Steelers have been almost historically good at containing quarterback rushing production.
• Can Bijan Robinson get going on outside zones in Denver? The breakout Falcons star has been the league's best runner on the concept but may endure tough sledding out West.
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Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes
While the outcome of every football game is — in some way, shape or form — influenced by the 22 players on each team’s side, examining the niche, micro-level battles that can define a result adds an extra layer of nuance. That includes players or units battling head-to-head, or even defensive coaches trying to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Week 10’s focus on the Commanders’ no-huddle offense (only 2.3 yards per play) and the Cardinals’ pass-blocking (only six pressures allowed) were pivotal in deciding big games last week. Now, let’s turn the page to Week 11.
Whether strength against strength, weakness against weakness or simply an individual war of great consequence, here are six matchups with a significant probability of determining winners this week.
Lamar Jackson vs. Steelers’ scramble defense
Sunday’s triumvirate of exhilarating NFL games kicks off with a battle for the AFC North crown in Pittsburgh. Ravens-Steelers could easily come down to Pittsburgh’s passing attack against a woeful Baltimore secondary, or how well the Steelers hem in Derrick Henry. How well Lamar Jackson can run in Acrisure Stadium will also be critical.
Jackson ranks near the top of virtually every advanced quarterbacking metric this year, and scrambling is no different. His 265 scramble yards are the second most at the position, while his 87.3 PFF rushing grade on scrambles ranks sixth among qualifiers. That’s no coincidence: Jackson may already lay claim to being the best dual-threat quarterback in NFL history, especially considering his improvement as a passer this year.
However, on the other side of the line of scrimmage is a ferocious Pittsburgh defense that’s completely erased all scrambling. The Steelers have permitted only five scrambles for 15 yards all year — yes, you read that correctly. That’s the lowest total allowed through 10 weeks since the Bears in 2008. Pittsburgh was able to contain Jayden Daniels in a major way in Week 10, limiting the stellar rookie to only three carries for five yards.
Will Jackson stay true to his game and take off, or will the Steelers continue their quarterback ground game dominance and keep him in the pocket? Whichever way that battle sways very well may decide who leads the AFC North after 11 weeks.
Patrick Mahomes holding the ball over 2.5 seconds vs. the Bills
Right after Ravens-Steelers, we’re treated to one of the best games of the NFL season so far: Chiefs-Bills. All attention will gravitate toward quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, and rightly so — although neither has been as flawless as expected this year. Still, both are lethal for a reason, which particularly applies to Mahomes when the play extends.
Despite ranking only eighth in PFF passing grade this season — which feels like a disappointment for his standards — Mahomes has been especially great when he has more time to tread in the pocket and make a play downfield. The three-time Super Bowl champion ranks seventh in PFF overall grade when holding onto the ball for 2.5 or more seconds, as opposed to 14th when throwing under that timeframe.
But that’s exactly where the Bills specialize. Buffalo sits second in EPA per play when quarterbacks hold onto the ball for 2.5-plus seconds, permitting the fifth-lowest passer rating allowed (64.7).
Mahomes had an uncharacteristic day against Denver in Week 10, missing several open touchdowns — in part because he had an average time to throw of 2.89 seconds, his third-highest mark of the season. If that continues against Buffalo, the Bills may be the first team to knock off the defending champs this season.
Ja’Marr Chase vs. the Chargers’ zone coverage
Sunday night’s duel features two AFC playoff contenders with gaudy units going head-to-head: the Bengals' offense against the Chargers' defense. The subplot of that war should be Ja’Marr Chase against Los Angeles’ zone looks.
Chase’s 85.1 PFF receiving grade against zone ranks fourth among wide receivers with 10 or more targets. On top of that, his 24 first downs gained against zone looks lead all wideouts. A whopping 208 of Chase’s 264 receiving yards last Thursday came against zone.
Meanwhile, defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has turned the Chargers' defense from one of the worst in the NFL to a premier unit, ranking second in EPA per play. Los Angeles slots third in passing EPA per play when it runs zone, including generating the fifth-highest contested target rate (18.1%).
Minter will likely dial up no shortage of Cover 3 and Quarters looks against Joe Burrow and Chase, as Los Angeles runs the plays on a combined 55.6% of coverage snaps. Will Chase find space running behind linebackers or deep behind three to four defenders? The wideout’s success feels inextricably tied to the Bengals’ odds in this key showdown.
Falcons’ outside zone rushing vs. Broncos‘ defense
While the three games above are the Sunday headliners, don’t sleep on Falcons-Broncos, which pits two possible playoff teams against one another in a big Week 11 showdown. The Falcons' powerful offense against the Broncos' stingy defense is a top matchup, particularly when Atlanta runs the ball.
In Zac Robinson’s first season as offensive coordinator, the Falcons have stayed true to their identity from years past, grounding themselves in outside zone. Atlanta’s 171 outside-zone rushes are easily the most in the NFL. The team ranks ninth in yards per carry running the concept and has forced 49 missed tackles, which leads the league. Unsurprisingly, Bijan Robinson is the NFL's highest-graded runner on outside zone (90.6), and 418 of his 610 yards on the run have come after contact.
However, the Broncos have bucked up against outside zone this season. Denver has permitted only 3.4 yards per carry against such plays and has missed only 10 tackles, tied for the sixth fewest.
Will Denver corral Robinson outside the tackle box, or will he continue his dazzling display in his breakout second year? If Atlanta can remain two-dimensional on offense, it could come away with a big road win.
Caleb Williams vs. Packers’ Cover 3
One of the overarching storylines of Week 11 is how the Bears' offense will perform after swapping Shane Waldron for Thomas Brown at offensive coordinator. Much scrutiny has also befallen Williams, whose PFF passing grade ranks 34th among qualifying quarterbacks. Williams has actually fared well against a common look — but it's one the Packers run effectively.
One of the lone bright spots in Williams’ first 10 games has been his throwing against Cover 3. The No. 1 pick’s 68.9 PFF passing grade is his highest against any mainstream shell look, ranking 16th among qualifying quarterbacks.
But Green Bay fields the NFL's best team coverage grade on Cover 3 — including both Jaire Alexander and Xavier McKinney slotting into the top six with 90.0-plus coverage grades in the look. Plus, Jeff Hafley has run Cover 3 on 29.8% of snaps, deploying it more than any other coverage.
Williams should see a heavy dose of Cover 3, but will he rip the ball quicker and take fewer sacks? If he does, then Chicago’s offense may finally get put in drive — but if not, the Packers may win their 11th straight against their rivals.
49ers’ RB receiving vs. Seahawks‘ defense
Seahawks-49ers may not have the allure of some other matchups, but it’s still a crucial late-season divisional game in a contested NFC West race. Sunday will mark Christian McCaffrey’s second game of the season — and how he fares catching the ball will likely be influential.
Somewhat shockingly, 49ers running backs were targeted only 18 times from Weeks 1-9, easily the fewest in the NFL. But with McCaffrey back in the lineup, San Francisco threw to its running backs seven times alone in Week 10. That tracks more with a team that ranked top-six in targets, catches and yards by running backs in 2023.
On the other end of the equation, Mike Macdonald and the Seattle defense will look for ways to slow McCaffrey through the air. The promising element is that the Seahawks have been terrific at containing running backs in the receiving game. Seattle has permitted only 29 catches to the position all year — the third fewest in the NFL — while allowing only 5.9 yards per play (11th lowest).
In two games against the Seahawks last season, McCaffrey racked up only six catches for 33 yards. If Ernest Jones and rookie Tyrice Knight can maintain tight coverage on the reigning Offensive Player of the Year, then Seattle may be able to snap its funk.
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