• Will the Commanders keep things fast against the Steelers? No team has run more no-huddle plays than Washington, but Pittsburgh has been the best defense against plays without a huddle.
• Can the Texans stop the Lions in 12 personnel? Houston ranks fourth in EPA per play against the formation, but the Lions have been a top-three offense out of it.
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Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes
While the outcome of every football game is — in some way, shape or form — influenced by the 22 players on each team’s side, what adds an extra layer of nuance is examining the niche, micro-level battles that can define a result. That includes players or units battling head-to-head, or even defensive coaches trying to out-scheme the opposing quarterback.
Week 9’s focus on the Broncos’ deep passing game (Bo Nix went 3-of-7 for 85 yards on 20-plus-yard attempts) and the Colts’ inside zone rushing (four carries for 8 yards) were prudent predictions in defining last week’s winners. Now, let’s turn the page to Week 10.
Whether strength against strength, weakness against weakness or simply an individual war of great consequence, here are eight matchups with a significant probability of determining winners this week.
Commanders‘ no-huddle offense vs. Steelers‘ defense
Steelers-Commanders is a highly enjoyable matchup for a myriad of reasons: It features division leaders and top-three seeds facing off, not to mention two coaches whose teams have performed better than anticipated. This game will also serve as an indicator of where each stands, and what very well might dictate the game flow is the Commanders’ no-huddle offense.
Washington has run no-huddle plays on a whopping 57.1% of snaps in Kliff Kingsbury’s first season as the team's offensive coordinator. For context, the second-highest rate is 28.2%. It’s not shocking, then, to learn that the Commanders rank fifth in EPA per play on such concepts. Brian Robinson Jr., Jayden Daniels and Cornelius Lucas are among the top six players in PFF overall grade when running no-huddle (minimum 100 snaps).
However, the Steelers have been among the NFL’s stingiest defenses in all categories. That includes no-huddle: Pittsburgh sits first in no-huddle EPA per play allowed and 10th in yards per play given up. T.J. Watt’s all-world play has continued with limited time pre-snap, as his 91.4 PFF overall grade is tied for second in such situations.
Will Kingsbury stick to his up-tempo script to try to wear out a dominant Pittsburgh defensive line, even if the Steelers can neutralize a quicker pace? That decision-making will be something to watch in this marquee showdown.
Chiefs’ explosive passing vs. Broncos’ secondary
The Broncos are seeking their first win in Arrowhead Stadium since 2015 — yes, it’s really been that long. If Denver wants to stay above .500 and rebound from a lopsided loss at Baltimore, it’ll need to hone its explosive passing defense.
The Broncos have allowed the lowest explosive passing rate in the NFL this season (9.5%). The problem, though, is that that didn’t hold up against the Ravens: Lamar Jackson and company generated an explosive pass on 37.5% of attempts, the highest rate by any offense in a game this season. That’ll help explain allowing 41 points.
The good news for the Broncos is that the Chiefs aren’t especially prolific at netting 15 or more yards on any passing play. Kansas City sits only 18th in explosive passing rate, including accomplishing that on 11.8% of attempts in Week 9 in DeAndre Hopkins’ second start with the team.
The bottom line is that Denver’s margin for error to be the first team to knock off the Chiefs is extremely low. Not surrendering chunk plays through the air would be significant.
Broncos coverage grade leaders
Jets‘ pass rush vs. Cardinals‘ offensive line
The NFL’s 3:25 p.m. window doesn’t appear to offer many tantalizing options on the surface, but Jets-Cardinals is a fascinating matchup between teams hoping to fight for playoff contention. If New York wants to make it two wins in a row, it’ll likely need its defensive line to dominate again.
The Jets racked up a staggering 33 pressures against the Texans. That's become a key part of Jeff Ulbrich’s defense, as the team has totaled the second-most pressures in the NFL.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ offensive line has helped fuel a unit that sits 12th in EPA per play. Arizona is tied for the sixth-lowest pressure rate given up on offense (30%). In fact, all five Cardinals starters have posted PFF pass-blocking grades of 67.5 or better.
If Arizona can give Kyler Murray room to operate, it should bode well. But if Quinnen Williams continues his late-season tear, then the heartbeat of the Jets’ playoff lives may grow louder.
Lions’ 12 personnel offense vs. Texans’ defense
Defending the Lions' offense feels like a paradoxical task: If you can somehow take away the run, then Jared Goff can find Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta or Jameson Williams schemed up open downfield. Detroit ranks fourth in EPA per play in 2024 and ranks second since Week 5.
If the Texans want any shot at containing Ben Johnson’s bunch, it will have to come when the Lions are in 12 personnel. Detroit has run plays with one running back and two tight ends (primarily LaPorta and Brock Wright) on 170 plays, the sixth most in the NFL. Unsurprisingly, the Lions place third in EPA per play when using the formation.
The silver lining for Houston is that its defense sits fourth in EPA per play against 12-personnel looks. Neville Hewitt, Danielle Hunter and Eric Murray are three of the top 26 defenders in PFF overall grade when encountering the formation.
With potentially no Will Anderson Jr. on Sunday night, head coach DeMeco Ryans will need his defense to maximize its chances for disruption when it can. If Houston can lean into its success against two tight ends, then this could be a thrilling battle between Super Bowl hopefuls.
Highest-Graded Lions on Offense
Dolphins’ motion vs. Rams’ defense
Monday night’s showdown may not be as prolific as its two primetime counterparts this week (cue the out-of-place dragon face meme), but it’s still a contest between two of the best offensive minds in football: Sean McVay and Mike McDaniel. In particular, McDaniel’s genius against McVay’s defense may be the difference.
Since Tua Tagovailoa has returned under center, he’s effectively rescued the Dolphins on offense. Over the past two weeks, Miami ranks first in EPA per play, completing an about-face after ranking either dead last or bottom-three without its franchise quarterback.
In large part, that’s due to the Dolphins using motion. McDaniel has implemented either motion or a shift on 85.7% of snaps since Tagovailoa was re-inserted, easily the highest of any team. Miami ranks third in EPA per play on such looks in that two-game span.
On the other side of the ball, the Rams’ beleaguered defense has actually tightened a bit in the past few weeks, ranking second in EPA per play since Week 7 despite battling the Vikings and Seahawks. In particular, Los Angeles has improved markedly in defending motion looks, jumping from 32nd in EPA per play from Weeks 1-6 to third from Weeks 7-9.
We know McDaniel will put Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and others in motion. The question becomes how well the Rams can neutralize it — and if they can hold up as well as they have in this latest spurt.
Colts‘ Joe Flacco vs. Bills’ Cover 1
Joe Flacco’s first go-around as the Colts’ established QB1 didn’t go amazingly, with Indianapolis mustering just six offensive points and the veteran posting a 51.7 PFF passing grade. Although he faces another formidable defense this week in the Bills, Buffalo’s coverage breakdown could work in his favor.
The Bills have run Cover 1 on 14.9% of plays this year, the team’s third-highest rate of any coverage. That’s been successful, too: Buffalo ranks fifth in the NFL in PFF defensive grade out of Cover 1, with the caveat being the team’s 58.1 PFF coverage grade — which ranks 19th.
That latter stat may prove key when facing off with Flacco, who has thrived this year against Cover 1. Flacco’s 75.2 PFF passing grade against the defensive scheme places fifth among qualified quarterbacks. The 39-year-old has posted two big-time throws to zero turnover-worthy plays against Cover 1 — although he faced it only twice in Minnesota, going 0-for-2.
Will Sean McDermott run more Cover 2 and 3 given Flacco’s prowess against Cover 1, or will he trust his own team’s effectiveness on the look more? If the Colts want to pull off the upset, they’ll not only need Flacco to remain elite against the coverage, but also for Buffalo to put it in play.
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