Lamar Jackson has always been nearly impossible to defend, and yet, he’s made it even more difficult this season.
Opposing defensive coordinators have tried seemingly everything to slow down the NFL’s premier dual-threat quarterback. The Houston Texans approached this task in a manner seemingly counter to their core philosophy when facing off with the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs.
Though there was some thought that the Texans could use disguised coverages to confuse Jackson, they did so only eight times throughout the game. Instead, Houston deployed a blitz-heavy approach, sending extra pressure at Jackson on 69% of his dropbacks. During the regular season, the Texans ran the third-fewest pass blitzes in the NFL.
In past years, this strategy forced Jackson into missed throws or made him escape the pocket early. This season has been a different story.
Lamar Jackson vs. Blitz
| Metric | 2020-2022 | 2023 |
| Passing Grade | 58.8 | 81.0 |
| Big-Time Throw % | 3.3% | 4.5% |
| Turnover-Worthy Play % | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| Average Time to Throw | 2.81 seconds | 2.67 seconds |
| Air Yards % | 54.8% | 41.8% |
Jackson has excelled against the blitz this season, so far posting an 81.0 passing grade in such situations, identical to his 2019 MVP campaign.
Jackson has made quicker, more conservative decisions against pressure to keep the chains moving. His 41.8% air yards percentage against the blitz is the third-lowest mark in the NFL, ranking behind Patrick Mahomes and Sam Howell.
He has also set a career high in completion percentage and a career low in average depth of target against blitzes. Jackson is now very good at taking what the defense gives him. His playoff outing against the Texans was a microcosm of this.
Lamar Jackson vs. Texans' Blitz in Divisional Round
| First Half | Second Half | |
| Comp./Att. | 4/8 | 8/9 |
| Passing Yards | 35 yards | 79 yards |
| TD Passes | 0 | 1 |
| Sacks Taken | 3 | 0 |
| Average Depth of Target | 8.9 yards | 5.6 yards |
| Average Time to Throw | 3.44 seconds | 2.02 seconds |
It was clear the team made a halftime adjustment to find the right matchup or exploit the Texans when they were playing off-man coverage.
The best part of Jackson’s performance was his getting weapons the ball quickly for them to make plays after the catch. Once he and offensive coordinator Todd Monken figured this out, Houston stood no chance. The defense could no longer get to Jackson with a standard rush.
This newfound ability to quickly distribute the ball has been a theme all year. The Ravens trail only Detroit and San Francisco in yards after the catch against the blitz. Standout rookie Zay Flowers ranks fifth among all wide receivers in the category.
Jackson’s ability to handle pressure against Kansas City in the conference championship game could be the difference in whether he makes his first Super Bowl appearance. The results have been underwhelming in his previous four starts against the Chiefs.
Lamar Jackson Career vs. Chiefs Blitz (4 games)
| Metric | Total |
| Dropbacks | 60 |
| Passing Grade | 42.8 |
| Completion % | 48% |
| Yards Per Attempt | 5.6 |
| Big-Time Throws/Turnover-Worthy PLays | 0/3 |
Given these prior struggles, the key matchup in this AFC title game will be Jackson and Monken’s ability to create first downs by beating Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's blitz packages.
All eyes should be on the slot in said matchup. Over the previous five years, Baltimore slot receivers ranked 21st in receiving grade. This year, they rank fourth.
Several guys contribute to this cause, including the aforementioned Flowers and veteran Nelson Agholor. However, the tight ends will be in the spotlight, especially if Mark Andrews returns from his leg injury.
Andrews and Isaiah Likely are both extremely dangerous in the slot. The Chiefs counter with the third-best coverage grade from players who line up as slot cornerbacks, headlined by first-team All-Pro Trent McDuffie.
But the story may not be the result of those coverage matchups. It will be about how often Kansas City decides to send those cornerbacks at Lamar Jackson.
While the Chiefs blitz at just the 12th-highest rate, they send slot blitzes at the fourth-highest rate in the league and deploy their cornerbacks on blitzes far more than any other team.
Sending smaller, more athletic blitzers makes it harder for a quarterback to scramble away from pressure. Oftentimes, the best way to defeat a blitz is to throw right through it from the pocket.
If Lamar Jackson continues to showcase his improvement in diagnosing blitzes and allowing his weapons to make plays, he will likely have a chance to play for his first Super Bowl trophy.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.