• An MVP case despite a shaky record: As the Bengals fight for their playoff lives in Week 18, Joe Burrow will look to solidify his unlikely MVP candidacy.
• If the Bengals manage to clinch, watch out: Cincinnati has an outside shot to secure the No. 7 seed, and the Bengals' recent form should scare the Super Bowl hopefuls.
• 2025 NFL Draft season is here: Try PFF's best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2025's top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.
Estimated Reading Time: 6 minutes
Joe Burrow put up another dominant performance for the Bengals, this time in a must-win Week 17 game against the Broncos to keep their playoff hopes alive. He has almost singlehandedly — with the help of elite receivers — dragged the Bengals into postseason contention. Although Cincinnati's playoff odds are rather slim at this point, Burrow has also built a legitimate MVP case.
Highest-Graded Quarterbacks in 2024
Burrow finished Week 17 with a 93.6 PFF overall grade — the highest single-game grade of his season and career. He was nearly flawless, with zero turnover-worthy plays, an 83.7% adjusted completion percentage and the most positively graded plays of any quarterback in Week 17.
It’s been rather obvious that the Bengals' defensive struggles this season have put almost all the pressure on Burrow and the Bengals' offense. The offense, for the most part, has been up to the challenge. The unit ranks in the top 10 in EPA per play, successful-play percentage and scoring-drive percentage, despite having the fourth-worst team pass-blocking grade. Burrow has had to be almost perfect.
Because of the offensive line's inconsistency, Burrow has often dealt with pass-rushers bearing down on him. His 75.9 PFF overall grade under pressure ranks second among quarterbacks.
Joe Burrow making a free rusher miss and then quickly finding an open receiver for a TD. Rule of cool should apply and the illegal shift shouldn't count pic.twitter.com/5HIOlHP9ov
— Nick Akridge (@PFF_NickAkridge) December 30, 2024
This play eventually gets wiped out because of an illegal shift penalty, with the running back and wide receiver at the top of the screen moving at the same time without getting set. But, it shows what Burrow has to deal with on almost every play. The Broncos show a heavy-pressure look but have almost everyone drop out of it at the snap. They end up rushing only three, but the Bengals can’t pick it up, resulting in Burrow having to make a free pass-rusher miss. He does so and then flips his body back around to make an accurate throw to Andrei Iosivas sprinting over the middle of the field. It turns into a touchdown that is, unfortunately, called back.
The deep ball has always been one of Burrow’s best abilities. His 92.5 PFF overall grade on 20-plus-yard pass attempts is tied for the seventh-best mark this season, and outside of his rookie season, that grade has never been below 84.0.
Burrow dime to Higgins part 1 pic.twitter.com/6fQnsSp1Js
— Nick Akridge (@PFF_NickAkridge) December 30, 2024
This play ends up as a fairly simple read for Burrow, with the Broncos coming out in a two-deep shell. Burrow only has to be careful to make sure the deep safety isn’t working over the top of Tee Higgins, lined up at the bottom of the screen. Considering the cornerback's inside leverage, Burrow assumes that it’s straight man-to-man coverage on Higgins. He confirms that post-snap and then throws a perfect ball in the back corner of the end zone for Higgins, who does a great job of using “late hands,” a technique to fool defenders at the catch point, to prevent a pass breakup.
Burrow has proven to be a deadly pocket passer in his career, but he has also continued to make plays on the move and out of structure. In addition to his strong under-pressure grade, his 75.9 mark when he’s been moved off his spot and out of the pocket this season ranks second in the NFL.
Burrow hitting a dagger concept on the run pic.twitter.com/oP1S5uSk4F
— Nick Akridge (@PFF_NickAkridge) December 30, 2024
The Bengals run a “dagger” concept on this play, a two-man route concept with one receiver running deep down the field to drag the safeties and the other running an in-breaking route behind it. It’s typically a longer developing play that stresses weak offensive lines. While the Broncos don't generate immediate pressure, they are still able to get to Burrow and move him out of the pocket before the routes develop downfield. That doesn’t stop Burrow from continuing to read out the concept. He knows that once he scrambles, it will drag one of the underneath defenders out of his zone, giving him just enough room to make a throw on the run. It results in a large gain — and a huge fist pump from Burrow.
Burrow and Higgins have had an unreal rapport this season. But Higgins, whose contract expires at the end of the season, would be a detrimental loss for this elite passing offense if he hits free agency. Higgins’ 88.2 PFF overall grade is the highest of his career, and it couldn’t have come at a better time for him.
Burrow dime to Higgins part 2 pic.twitter.com/MxApoj6Eca
— Nick Akridge (@PFF_NickAkridge) December 30, 2024
Late in overtime after the Bengals had seemingly won the game twice already, Burrow and Higgins stepped up again for the biggest connection of the game. The Broncos show a clear man coverage look pre-snap — a coverage that Burrow and the Bengals dominate. Against Cover 1, Burrow owns a second-ranked 87.7 PFF overall grade. The Broncos hope that the interior pressure provided by the blitzing linebackers will get to Burrow, but the Bengals give him time to make the throw. And he ends up tossing a perfect ball to set the Bengals up to win on the next play and keep their season alive.
Joe Burrow has done nearly all he can to get the Bengals into the playoffs, and with one week left, they still need a win and some help to get in. Burrow might not have the wins associated with a typical MVP candidate, but in terms of how valuable an individual player is to a team, it’s hard to find a more deserving player.
If the Bengals can get into the playoffs, it would be hard to argue against how valuable Burrow is to Cincinnati. More importantly, Burrow and the Bengals would have a legitimate shot at causing chaos in the playoffs as a No. 7 that no defense wants to face.
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