Jayden Daniels’ early success mirrors Lamar Jackson’s 2019 MVP rise

• Two game-changing runners: Jayden Daniels‘ early success as a rusher closely mirrors Jackson’s breakout 2019 season. He has been a dynamic runner, just as he was throughout his five college seasons. This year, only eight players—seven running backs and Lamar Jackson —have recorded more rushes of 10-plus yards than Daniels.

• It's not just about their rushing ability: Both players’ dropback-passing numbers are nearly identical, even down to average time to throw. Daniels is slightly more conservative and accurate in his approach, while Jackson took a few more chances with the reward of more big-time throws, but the overall production is incredibly similar.

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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes

The hype around the first-ever matchup between Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson has been inescapable this week. And by the time the weekend rolls around, this matchup will have dominated every national sports show, and we’ll be drowning in comparisons. 

But despite the overplayed narrative, it’s a head-to-head battle that more than lives up to the hype.

Their similarities are easy to point out, as both are Heisman-winning dual-threat playmakers who have turned around their franchises.

An examination of their early-rookie-year statistics would be a bit unfair to Jackson, considering he didn’t start until Week 11 of 2018 and may not have been fully ready to commandeer an NFL passing attack at that point.

That said, factoring in those starts plus his three years at Louisville, the amount of high-level football he played isn’t too different from the whopping 55 starts that Daniels made across his five years in college.

To create a more balanced comparison, we'll look at Jackson's first five starts from his MVP-winning 2019 season, which better reflect his career trajectory. And at first glance, Daniels' performance this season suggests that the comparison might be more valid than it initially seems.

Jayden Daniels 2024 vs. Lamar Jackson 2019 (Weeks 1-5)

He’s gotten there in a slightly different manner, but Daniels is grading out slightly better than Jackson did through the first five starts of his first MVP season.

Daniels, whose team on paper isn’t as talented as that 2019 Ravens squad, has been more conservative as a passer, but his accuracy and efficiency stand out. Jackson attacked downfield more often and had a much higher average depth of target; he also threw 11 touchdowns compared to Daniels’ 4.

Daniels and Jackson are undeniable threats on the ground, elevating their teams' rushing attacks to another level. It makes sense that both would thrive in play-action situations early in their careers, acting as dynamic complements to their offenses — and that has been the case for both players. Yet, when we examine their production as dropback passers, the similarities become even more striking, with both showcasing positive results in this area.

Jayden Daniels 2024 vs. Lamar Jackson 2019 (Weeks 1-5), non-play action

Both players’ passing numbers are nearly identical, even down to average time to throw. Again, Daniels is slightly more conservative and accurate in his approach, while Jackson took a few more chances with the reward of more big-time throws, but the overall production is incredibly similar.

We’ve already addressed twice now that Daniels has shown a conservative approach. He may not be throwing downfield as often as Jackson did early in his career, but he holds the advantage in efficiency on 10-plus-yard targets.

Jayden Daniels 2024 vs. Lamar Jackson 2019 (Weeks 1-5), 10-plus-yard throws

When Daniels has chosen to throw the ball vertically, he’s done it at an elite level. Not only does his 92.4 passing grade on 10-plus-yard throws easily surpass Jackson’s 2019 mark, but it is actually slightly better than Jackson’s 92.1 passing grade on such throws this season.

The final part left to address is how Daniels and Jackson compare as runners. They are obviously both explosive playmakers and create as much for themselves in the run game as they do for their teammates. Again, a comparison of their statistics creates startling similarities

Jayden Daniels 2024 vs. Lamar Jackson 2019 (Weeks 1-5), Rushing Metrics

Daniels' early success as a rusher closely mirrors Jackson’s breakout 2019 season. He has been a dynamic runner, just as he was throughout his five college seasons. This year, only eight players—seven running backs and Lamar Jackson—have recorded more rushes of 10-plus yards than Daniels.

It’s likely too early to tell if Jayden Daniels will finish the season as a legitimate MVP candidate. However, his production is eerily similar to a player who has already won two MVPs. But whether or not he wins any award this year, Washington appears to have found a potentially elite quarterback capable of taking them to new heights.