Premium Content Sign Up

How does scheme similarity from one season to the next translate to defensive performance?

Earlier this week, we ranked the best play-callers on the defensive side of the ball in the NFL. This ranking takes into consideration our play-by-play grades, along with contextual variables like down and distance.

There’s an element to any evaluation system, even a grainy one that takes into account play-by-play data, that is part “resulting” as well as part process. To dive more deeply into the process aspect of coaching defense, we sought to quantify schemes on both sides of the ball.

We talked about this process a bit when we looked at our ability to predict hot starts and the improvement seen in the Kansas City Chiefs defense. Our approach is to take our data and look at how often teams are in an even front or an odd front, base, nickel or dime, man coverage, etc., adjust for league-level averages in a given year and use principal component analysis to deal with colinearity in the data and reduce the dimension of the problem. 

DOMINATE FANTASY FOOTBALL & BETTING WITH AI-POWERED DATA & TOOLS TRUSTED BY ALL 32

Unlimited Fantasy League Sync
Fantasy Start/Sit Line-Up Optimizer & Waiver Wire
WR-CB & OL-DL Matchups, PFF Player Grades, & Premium Stats 2.0 Tools
Nathan Jahnkes Rankings - #1 Most Accurate Last 70 Weeks
PFF Best Bets, Player Props, & Power Ranking Tools
NFL Mock Draft Sim with Trades & Draft Grades

Already have a subscription? Log In

Safety worth way more than 2 points. Help protect your family with fast, free will.
Sponsor
NFL Featured Tools
Subscriptions

Unlock the 2024 Fantasy Draft Kit, with Live Draft Assistant, Fantasy Mock Draft Sim, Rankings & PFF Grades

$24.99/mo
OR
$119.99/yr