C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans‘ explosive offense have occupied the majority of the spotlight for the team this season. While that unit had another terrific game in the wild-card round, it was the defense that had to overcome the red-hot Joe Flacco.
Flacco got off to a hot start early, but Houston’s schematic adjustments on defense were the key to slowing him down. Interestingly, these changes were implemented only very recently — a gutsy decision, given the magnitude of the Texans' past two games.
What bothered Flacco and the Cleveland Browns so much that they were held scoreless for the final 42 minutes of the game? In short, safety rotation and pre-snap disguises.
Joe Flacco vs. Houston Texans (Middle Of Field Change/No Change)
| Metric | No MOF Change | MOF Change |
| Passing Grade | 79.9 | 36.3 |
| Completion % | 88.5% | 55% |
| Yards per Attempt | 9.5 | 3.0 |
| INT | 0 | 2 |
| Average Time to Throw | 2.69 seconds | 2.93 seconds |
Early in the game, the Texans rarely rotated off their pre-snap coverage looks. As a result, Flacco knew where he was going with the football as he was dropping back, and he made the right decision nearly every time.
As the game progressed, the Texans countered by showing Flacco a certain coverage pre-snap and then rotating their secondary into a completely different look.
When Houston rotated its safeties, Flacco completed just 11 of his 20 passes for a total of 60 yards. He also threw both of his pick-sixes into coverages where the pre-snap middle-of-the-field look changed.
Those two interceptions present textbook examples of how this strategy can be highly effective.
STEVEN NELSON 82 YARD PICK SIX 🤯
pic.twitter.com/6fY5t7C2Av— PFF (@PFF) January 13, 2024
Flacco’s first interception, thrown to cornerback Steven Nelson, came against a zone blitz that deployed a three-deep coverage behind it. Before the snap, Houston made it look like a traditional quarters coverage. It’s a classic example of how changing from a two-high safety look into a single-high look can create pressure.
The blitz allowed Derek Barnett to win a one-on-one matchup off the edge, and over the course of the game, these rotated coverages forced Flacco to hold the ball just a bit longer. Quarterbacks read safeties before anything else, and when those safeties change their pre-snap look, it takes longer to process the defense.
Flacco’s increased time to throw, as displayed in the table above, resulted in a 50% pressure rate on plays with rotated coverages. That pressure forced him into a poor throw as he was hit, resulting in Nelson’s interception.
Joe Flacco passing touchdowns today:
To Browns: 1
To Texans: 2
pic.twitter.com/objv6IyoZL— PFF (@PFF) January 13, 2024
On Flacco’s second interception, thrown to linebacker Christian Harris, he was fooled by the coverage even though he had a clean pocket. Houston showed a single-high Cover 1 look pre-snap. At the snap, they rotated into an inverted Cover 2.
The key here is linebacker Blake Cashman dropping into his zone after showing pressure before the snap. Had he blitzed, Harris would’ve been in conflict trying to cover Harrison Bryant, Flacco’s intended receiver, and Kareem Hunt out of the backfield.
Cashman dropping with his eyes on Hunt meant Harris was no longer in conflict. Bryant is his man; he has free reign to jump the route. Realistically, Flacco had nowhere to go on that side of the field. He made a poor throw, but it was the result of the Texans deploying disguises that they really hadn’t used all season.
That last point is what makes this trend so interesting.
Through Week 17, the Texans ran just 153 plays all season in which they changed their pre-snap middle-of-the-field look. With so many young defensive players at their disposal, it stands to reason that they avoided utilizing these coverages. Even when they did use them, they ranked 30th in the NFL in coverage grade (55.1).
However, over the past two weeks, they’ve led the NFL in plays with middle-of-the-field rotation (51). They’ve also earned a league-best 90.0 coverage grade. Houston diversified its defense just in time for its biggest games of the season.
So, how could this style of play help the Texans against the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round? It could exploit something that has been a weakness of Lamar Jackson‘s over the past few years.
Lamar Jackson vs. Rotated Coverages (Middle of Field Change) | 2021-2023
| Metric | Total | Rank* |
| Passing Grade | 63.2 | 35th |
| Big-Time Throws | 10 | 26th |
| Turnover-Worthy Plays | 15 | 10th most |
| Completion % | 61.7% | 41st |
*among 51 QBs with 100 dropbacks
There have been a few games, including his most recent against the Dolphins, where Jackson has succeeded against these defenses, but he’s generally struggled when defenses change their pre-snap coverage look.
When Jackson sees these disguises, he generally looks for deep shots outside the numbers or will hold the ball a bit longer to create plays with his legs.
He earned a solid 84.4 passing grade in the first matchup against Houston in Week 1 by doing those two things. He hit two deep balls in that game, including a big-time throw, and the Texans had problems containing him once he broke out of the pocket.
Containing outside deep shots and creating pressure on Lamar Jackson will be the primary focus for the Texans. They’ve accomplished those goals over the past two weeks while fundamentally changing their coverage schemes. If they continue to do so in Baltimore, they have a serious chance of pulling off a massive upset.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.