• Trouble for Mike McCarthy in Dallas: McCarthy's Cowboys have grossly underperformed, and an arduous stretch ahead could spell trouble.
• Is Mike McDaniel in jeopardy?: The Dolphins offense has gone ice cold without Tua Tagovailoa.
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Estimated Reading Time: 13 minutes
The leaves have begun to change colors, Halloween is around the corner and seven weeks of the NFL season are in the books. Yes, there’s still time for teams to change their directions this year, but tiers of contenders and pretenders are shaping up rather clearly.
For the squads who have grossly underperformed in 2024, the outlook has already shifted to 2025 and beyond. In addition to determining which players will stick around for years to come, the natural question, of course, is which coach owners and executives want to be leading the charge.
Below is a compilation of head coaches whose teams haven’t met goals thus far — and thus, who could have the door shut.
Doug Pederson, Jacksonville Jaguars: Scalding
The Jaguars secured a much-needed win over the lowly Patriots in Week 7, but that still shouldn’t change Pederson’s outlook. Sitting at 2-4 and making critical, self-inflicted mistakes every weekend, Pederson’s grip on a once-promising roster has verifiably slipped.
Jacksonville’s defense ranks 32nd in EPA per play in Ryan Nielsen’s first year, and while injuries have certainly been a factor, the unit still fields too much talent to be that bad. Despite Trevor Lawrence ranking eighth among qualifying quarterbacks in overall PFF grade, the receiving corps ranks fourth with 16 dropped passes.
The Jaguars’ two wins this year have come against a Joe Flacco-led Colts team and the 1-6 Patriots. The odds that the team magically amends its issues are low as is, but with a four-game slate against the Packers, Eagles, Vikings and Lions, they become infinitesimal. PFF’s ELO rankings give the Jags just a 9% chance to make the playoffs, a number well below what it should be given this roster construction.
The bottom line is this: Despite reaching the AFC Divisional in 2022, Pederson never realized the bright potential of Lawrence and other talented young Jaguars. It seems like only a matter of time before Shad Khan gives him the axe.
Antonio Pierce, Las Vegas Raiders: Hot
Pierce has only coached 16 games with the Raiders, going 7-9 in that span. At the same time, the pixie dust of an impressive interim debut has worn off, culminating in a 2-5 record this season.
The Raiders rank 29th in overall team grade despite sitting 15th a year ago — and fielding an incredibly similar roster. Despite Las Vegas’ defense being serviceable at 14th in EPA per play, the offense has plummeted to 30th in EPA per play. Quite frankly, Pierce deserves blame for seemingly being content with having Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew as his two primary quarterback options for a full season.
Pierce’s in-game management has been highly questionable, too. For example, with the Raiders trailing the Rams 20-12 and under 3 minutes left, Pierce kicked a field goal from the Los Angeles 9-yard line — a decision that cost the team a real shot at victory. According to PFF’s fourth-down decision tracker, the Raiders rank 21st in “Agree” percentage, meaning the frequency with which Pierce made the right decision on fourth down.
The silver lining for the silver and black had always been superstars Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby. But Pierce already drew the ire of Adams, leading him to be dealt to the Jets, and Crosby doesn’t seem pleased with the team’s performance. If Pierce can’t keep his few stars happy, it doesn’t help his case for why he should be retained.
Vegas’ next three games are against the Chiefs, Bengals and Dolphins. If the team doesn’t win at least one, expect the chatter to heat up about the franchise moving on — in anticipation of a reset in 2025.
Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys: Hot
Yes, the Cowboys are 3-3 this year,and still in the mix for the NFC East title. But Dallas has looked like one of the more disjointed teams in football for long stretches.
The Cowboys rank 28th in overall team grade and are 24th or worse in both offensive and defensive EPA per play. Injuries have definitely played a role, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, but there’s been significant regression across the board.
Dak Prescott hasn’t performed as well as expected thus far, slotting only 20th in passing grade. The team’s run game has been anemic; CeeDee Lamb hasn’t looked like himself (career-low 70.7 receiving grade); and the offensive line hasn’t effectively replaced Tyron Smith or Tyler Biadasz.
Dallas did rattle off two straight road wins in primetime, but both were incredibly tight games — plus disappointing showings. Three crucial matchups against the 49ers, Falcons and Eagles await in guiding the Cowboys’ fate this season.
Dallas entered the year as one of the teams under the most pressure to finally exorcise its demons, but the early going has done anything but. McCarthy is running out of time to right this ship.
Dennis Allen, New Orleans Saints: Hot
It seemed that nobody had achieved more of a redemption arc than Dennis Allen and the Saints to start the year. Then, injuries abounded — and so did the losses. After a Thursday Night Football drubbing, New Orleans is now 2-5.
New Orleans’ high-flying offense is now 23rd in EPA per play, while its defense — still with stars in Demario Davis, Marshon Lattimore, Carl Granderson and more — ranks 20th. NOLA has been outscored by a combined 65 points during its skid, with little to no cohesion in any aspect. Things appeared to hit a breaking point when, with under a minute left in the first half against Denver, Allen deployed timeouts — only to have Spencer Rattler throw checkdowns to Alvin Kamara before taking a knee.
The Saints haven’t finished better than 9-8 in each of the last three full seasons. Since taking over for Sean Payton, Allen has posted an 18-23 mark with zero playoff appearances. At some point, New Orleans needs to finally engage in some type of rebuild, and Allen should probably be included — because it doesn’t appear that the Saints, even if healthy, would be viable contenders anytime soon.
Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns: Warm
The Browns were one of the more darling teams in the NFL in 2023, going 10-7 with Joe Flacco and no Nick Chubb in the backfield. But 2024 has been nothing short of a dystopia, with Cleveland sitting 1-6 — and its only win coming over the Jaguars.
Stefanski, known for being an offensive whiz, has trotted out a team posting the second-worst offensive EPA per play in football. Much of the blame can be attributed to Deshaun Watson, who ranked 21st in passing grade before rupturing his Achilles in Week 7. But the fact that Stefanski willingly kept Watson in the saddle until he was deemed out for the year is a major indictment of his decision-making.
Likewise, Cleveland’s once-ferocious defense has been anything but in 2024. Jim Schwartz’s unit sits 17th in EPA per play and a dismal 26th in team coverage grade. So much for the Browns having an impenetrable defensive foundation.
Given that the Browns made the playoffs only a year ago, it’s not a certainty that Stefanski would get fired despite how bad Cleveland has been this season. But, he’s notched only a 38-36 record and one playoff win in five years. The hourglass may be losing sand.
Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins: Warm
If 2024 has taught us one thing, it’s that Mike McDaniel absolutely, unequivocally needs Tua Tagovailoa (or an accurate quarterback) in order to have any type of offensive success. After the quarterback went down with a frightening concussion in Week 2, the Dolphins have been the least efficient offense in the NFL. Hearing that said in association with the ingenious McDaniel is almost mind-numbing.
McDaniel shouldn’t get all of the blame for Miami’s 2-4 record, but the lack of ability to adapt without Tagovailoa is concerning. The big-play touches for Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have seemingly vanished: Hill and Waddle have combined for only 15 explosive plays through seven games compared to 38 in that span the year before. Meanwhile, Matt LaFleur kept the Packers offense humming even without Jordan Love, and Kevin O’Connell has enabled Sam Darnold to play better than anticipated. That says a lot about McDaniel’s pedigree as a play-caller.
Plus, it’s not as if the Dolphins defense hasn’t played well. Despite losing Jaelan Phillips for the year and Bradley Chubb not even playing yet, Miami sits sixth in defensive EPA per play in Anthony Weaver’s first year.
McDaniel has led the Dolphins to consecutive playoff berths, but the team has gotten curbstomped in the postseason each year. The last Miami coach to last four full seasons was Dave Wannstedt in 2004; in other words, Stephen Ross isn’t the most patient. For as shrewd as McDaniel is, it feels like he needs a swift turnaround to avoid being in serious jeopardy of being fired.
Brian Daboll, New York Giants: Warm
In his first year calling the shots, Daboll propelled the Giants to their first playoff appearance in six years. But in the two seasons since, things have gone horribly awry — and 2024 hasn’t been very encouraging.
At 2-5, the Giants are 24th in overall PFF grade. Although the team’s offensive line actually improved rather significantly, Daniel Jones has remained a below-average quarterback, slotting 23rd in passing grade. Daboll, heralded as an offensive mastermind, has called plays for a unit that ranks 25th in EPA per play. The team’s offensive ineptitude has been on full display in the last two weeks, sinking a defense that’s played well at times and generated pressure.
Now three years in, Daboll has mustered only a 17-23 record as New York’s head coach. This season seemed likely to be a fork in the road for the franchise, and it’s growing harder to believe that Daboll (or Jones) has done enough to warrant another look next year.
Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals: Slightly Warm
The Bengals appeared dead in the water at 1-4 but have since snapped off two straight victories, preserving their playoff hopes this year. That improved two-game stretch against the terrible Panthers and Browns was pivotal for not only 2024, but also Taylor’s job security.
Cincinnati’s offense has looked as prolific as expected this year. The Bengals rank eighth in offensive EPA per play, while Joe Burrow has returned in full from his wrist injury, sitting second in passing grade. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins have both graded as top-10 wideouts in football.
At the same time, the defense has horribly underperformed. Cincinnati’s defense sits 24th in EPA per play and 24th in touchdown drive allowed rate. Only three regular Bengals defenders (Logan Wilson, Trey Hendrickson and B.J. Hill) have notched overall grades above 70.0.
On top of that, there are questions that need to be asked about Taylor. His decision to run three straight times to set up a (missed) 53-yard field goal against the Ravens in overtime didn’t make sense. Plus, the team has started slowly on a consistent basis, regularly putting itself in an avoidable hole.
Taylor has won nine or more games each of the last three seasons, so if Cincinnati doesn’t make the postseason this year, he may not be ousted. Even then, the Bengals were expected to be one of the foremost teams in the AFC — and if that doesn’t happen, doubts will grow.
Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles: Cold… For now
The Eagles are 4-2 and only a half-game back of the NFC East lead, but their 2024 season has been a bit unconventional. Philly began 2-2 before narrowly beating the Browns in Week 6, then crushing the Giants in Week 7.
Philadelphia appears, at the very least, a solid team. The Eagles are 12th in overall team grade and top-10 in both offensive and defensive EPA per play. Still, Jalen Hurts hasn’t looked like himself: his 56.6 passing grade ranks 31st among qualified QBs, and his 11 turnover-worthy plays are the third-most.
Sirianni himself has also had several quixotic moments. Between some bizarre fourth-down decisions to even jarring with home fans, the lingering disaster of the 2023 season hasn’t been forgotten.
If the Eagles maintain their current status and get into the playoffs, Sirianni will probably get another year to prove his worth. Nevertheless, Philadelphia strongly considered firing him despite making the Wild Card a year ago, so that might not be sufficient.
Jonathan Gannon, Arizona Cardinals: Cold
Gannon’s first two years in Arizona have been rather forgettable. The former Eagles DC has gone just 7-17 overall, including 3-4 in 2024. Even then, it doesn’t seem like he’s in any real danger of losing his job.
For one, the Cardinals simply don’t have a ton of pure talent on the roster. There are a number of intriguing offensive pieces this year in Kyler Murray, James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride. Indeed, under Drew Petzing’s command, Arizona’s offense is 11th in EPA per play and sixth in successful play percentage.
Most of the problems have been on defense, where Arizona fields one of the least-talented units in the NFL. Injuries to defensive linemen like B.J. Ojulari and Darius Robinson haven’t helped. Altogether, Arizona ranks 27th in defensive EPA per play.
The Cardinals’ three wins are also important context, because two came against divisional opponents — including a comeback against the vaunted 49ers on the road. Gannon has shown a propensity to beat playoff-caliber teams in his tenure out west. It didn’t help that Murray was out for a significant portion of his first year, either.
Arizona might secure a third-straight top-10 pick in the 2025 draft, but Gannon is almost definitely owed at least one more season.
Jerod Mayo, New England Patriots/Brian Callahan, Tennessee Titans/Dave Canales, Carolina Panthers: Cold
All three first-year coaches have enjoyed lackluster seasons, going a combined 3-17 with little optimism in 2024. Still, it would be highly improbable for any of them to be fired this early.
Mayo was effectively hand-selected by Bill Belichick to be the Patriots’ long-term successor at head coach. His roster — especially on offense — is one of the worst in the NFL. Plus, injuries to stars like David Andrews and Christian Barmore have hindered the innate potential.
Callahan’s defense has fared rather well (13th in defensive EPA per play), fueled by sound play from rookies T’Vondre Sweat and Jarvis Brownlee Jr. But the team’s offense has been stuck in neutral, with its headliner receiving corps not coming together. Still, things haven’t been disastrous enough for Callahan to be removed. If anything, Will Levis and the poor offensive line are probably most to blame for no offensive cohesion.
Canales arrived in Carolina with the intent to revive Bryce Young’s career, and the inverse has happened. Still, there’s little debating that the Panthers are the worst NFL team from a personnel standpoint. Only five Carolina players to play more than 150 snaps have received overall grades above 70.0 (Robert Hunt, Chuba Hubbard, Ikem Ekwonu, Damien Lewis, Jaycee Horn). Fundamentally, it’s hard to blame Canales when this is the crop he’s working with.
All three of these first-time head coaches will be under serious pressure to attain better results next year, but they almost certainly won’t be fired in or after their debut seasons.
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