• QB Kirk Cousins leads the way: An ill-timed torn Achilles derailed another strong season from Cousins, and he looked set to have a host of suitors in free agency, as he did back in 2018. Cousins still has the requisite arm strength to throw to all levels of the field and has been as accurate as ever in recent seasons.
• Tee Higgins is the top wide receiver option: Injuries have hampered almost the entire 2023 season for Higgins after his second consecutive 1,000-yard season in 2022 with a receiving grade above 75.0. A franchise tag already seemed likely heading into the season, and with little new data to impact the negotiation either way, that seems inevitable.
• Everything you need to know about the 2024 free agency class: Click here for PFF's full 2024 NFL free agent rankings, which provide the most complete picture for each player, closer to a pro scouting report than ever before, with the best data in football putting us over the edge.
1. QB Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
An ill-timed torn Achilles derailed another strong season from Cousins, and he looked set to have a host of suitors in free agency, as he did back in 2018. Cousins still has the requisite arm strength to throw to all levels of the field and has been as accurate as ever in recent seasons.
Top free agent comparison: PHILIP RIVERS, 2020
| Player | Clean pocket grade | 1st & 2nd down grade | Standard dropback grade | Sack rate | APY as % of Cap at signing |
| Kirk Cousins | 91.1 | 89.1 | 90.3 | 5.9% | |
| Philip Rivers | 91.2 | 89.0 | 87.3 | 5.5% | 12.6% |
*All data in tables reflects two years prior to UFA contract signing
Contract Projection: Two years, $60 million ($30 million per year), $37.5 million total guaranteed
2. WR Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
Injuries have hampered almost the entire 2023 season for Higgins after his second consecutive 1,000-yard season in 2022 with a receiving grade above 75.0. A franchise tag already seemed likely heading into the season, and with little new data to impact the negotiation either way, that seems inevitable. The field-stretching, jump-ball receiver should have the chance to bounce back in 2024 along with the entire Bengals team following a disappointing season.
Top free agent comparison: Mike Williams, 2022
| Player | Receiving grade | Yards per route run | Average depth of target | Yards after catch per reception | APY as % of Cap at signing |
| Tee Higgins | 77.1 | 1.71 | 11.9 | 3.8 | |
| Mike Williams | 78.0 | 1.78 | 13.5 | 4.6 | 9.6% |
*All data in tables reflects two years prior to UFA contract signing
Contract Projection: Franchise tag
3. WR Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts
Plenty of holes will be poked in Pittman’s game in the coming months as he gets set to enter free agency, with some athletic limitations keeping his average depth of target down, especially compared to predominantly outside wide receivers.
Nonetheless, Pittman is as reliable a possession receiver as there is in the NFL, and it’s also fair to wonder if a carousel at quarterback in Indianapolis has limited his production. Pittman is on pace for a career-best receiving grade with 100-plus catches and 1,000-plus receiving yards — that gets a player paid even if there is a perceived ceiling to his game.
Top free agent comparison: Allen Robinson, 2022
| Player | Receiving grade | Yards per route run | Average depth of target | Yards after catch per reception | APY as % of Cap at signing |
| Michael Pittman | 77.6 | 1.67 | 7.9 | 4.0 | |
| Allen Robinson | 83.8 | 1.72 | 10.8 | 3.0 | 7.4% |
*All data in tables reflects two years prior to UFA contract signing
Contract Projection: Franchise tag
4. WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Another starting quarterback in Tampa Bay? Another 1,000-yard season from Mike Evans. The record-setting 10th straight season to start a career with 1,000-plus yards is one thing, but an 83.9 receiving grade with double-digit touchdowns for the third time in four years is extraordinary.
Evans’ free agency will be tricky and has a wide range of outcomes, with nagging soft-tissue injuries seemingly bothering him weekly for years now. There could also be sticker shock with recent outcomes on 30-plus-year-old receivers. Nonetheless, there is no reason he should ask for less than the recent crop of players, including Davante Adams, who effectively signed a three-year, $67.7 million contract with the Las Vegas Raiders.
Top free agent comparison: Kenny Golladay, 2021
| Player | Receiving grade | Yards per route run | Average depth of target | Yards after catch per reception | APY as % of Cap at signing |
| Mike Evans | 82.4 | 2.04 | 14.7 | 3.6 | |
| Kenny Golladay | 82.2 | 2.12 | 15.8 | 4.1 | 9.8%** |
*All data in tables reflects two years prior to UFA contract signing
**2021 salary cap of $182.5 million, dropped due to the pandemic
Contract Projection: Three years, $69 million ($23 million per year), $52.5 million total guaranteed
5. T Tyron Smith, Dallas Cowboys
When Tyron Smith is healthy, he is an impenetrable brick wall as a blindside protector, no matter the matchup. Smith playing through nearly the entirety of his eight-year extension signed in 2014 is something we will probably never see again, and he provided enormous surplus value to Dallas despite the time he missed here and there.
After agreeing to a revised one-year deal worth $6 million for 2023, Smith has outplayed that deal once again. Perhaps Smith is more focused on remaining a career Cowboy and chasing a Lombardi Trophy a la Andrew Whitworth with the Los Angeles Rams, but he deserves a solid payday if he wants to pursue one.
Top free agent comparison: Terron Armstead, 2022
| Player | Pass-block grade | True pass set pass-block grade | Negative run-block grade percentage | APY as % of Cap at signing | |
| Tyron Smith | 81.1 | 78.3 | 11.7% | ||
| Terron Armstead | 87.3 | 80.1 | 11.9% | 7.2% | |
*All data in tables reflects two years prior to UFA contract signing
Contract Projection: One year, $10 million fully guaranteed
6. WR Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals
The Ravens traded Brown and a third-round pick to the Cardinals for a 2022 first-round pick, and his time in Arizona has been a journey, to say the least. Between his own injuries and Kyler Murray’s torn ACL, the former college teammates haven’t been able to team up as much as the old regime probably hoped, but he has flashed when in the lineup.
It’s hard to come up with a solid comparable player for a 5-foot-9, 180-pound outside wide receiver — although now the NFL is adding more of this archetype each year — and it’s also fair to wonder how badly Arizona wants to extend anyone, given their timeline and the emergence of rookie wideout Michael Wilson.
Top free agent comparison: Christian Kirk, 2022
| Player | Receiving grade | Yards per route run | Average depth of target | Yards after catch per reception | APY as % of Cap at signing |
| Marquise Brown | 70.9 | 1.37 | 12.2 | 3.5 | |
| Christian Kirk | 69.2 | 1.52 | 12.5 | 3.4 | 8.6% |
*All data in tables reflects two years prior to UFA contract signing
Contract Projection: Franchise tag
7. T Trent Brown, New England Patriots
Brown’s free agency will always be a unique case, with clauses in recent contracts rewarding him for keeping his weight down, and he probably fits only in a gap-heavy offensive scheme. Nonetheless, Brown stonewalls defenders in pass protection and is comfortable playing on either bookend of the line of scrimmage, which adds value as teams shuffle things around to get their best five on the field amid in-season injuries.
Top free agent comparison: Nate Solder, 2017
| Player | Pass-block grade | True pass set pass-block grade | Negative run-block grade percentage | APY as % of Cap at signing | |
| Trent Brown | 76.4 | 69.4 | 11.7% | ||
| Nate Solder | 76.5 | 69.3 | 8.0% | 8.7% | |
*All data in tables reflects two years prior to UFA contract signing
Contract Projection: Two years, $15 million ($7.5 million per year), $8.5 million total guaranteed
8. G Kevin Dotson, Los Angeles Rams
Dotson was traded from the Pittsburgh Steelers to the Los Angeles Rams this offseason, and what first appeared like an odd fit should have instead been a signal that head coach Sean McVay was reinventing his offense to much success in 2023. McVay has pivoted from a wide-zone rushing attack to a heavy gap scheme, and Dotson has been a picture-perfect fit. He has always been a strong pass protector, which has carried over, as well.
Top free agent comparison: Larry Warford, 2017
| Player | Pass-block grade | True pass set pass-block grade | Positive run-block grade percentage | APY as % of Cap at signing | |
| Kevin Dotson | 75.1 | 69.0 | 15.2% | ||
| Larry Warford | 75.2 | 69.1 | 15.0% | 5.1% | |
*All data in tables reflects two years prior to UFA contract signing
Contract Projection: Four years, $69 million ($17.25 million per year), $41.25 million total guaranteed
9. WR Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars
Ridley’s contract situation is a true one-of-one. He returned to play in 2023 after missing all of 2022 while serving a suspension for sports gambling and had stepped away from football before the 2021 campaign was over but was a top wide receiver in 2020. There have been drop issues in 2023 as Ridley returns to full speed, but he is still capable of taking over a game while breaking off a series of explosive receptions.
Equally fascinating is the conditions on Ridley’s trade to Jacksonville, where the pick the Jaguars send to the Atlanta Falcons escalates to a second-rounder if the two parties agree to an extension. We’re not 100% certain that the same language for the condition exists here as it did when Leonard Williams was sent from the New York Jets to the New York Giants, but there the Giants did not have to send a better pick by merely placing a franchise tag instead of signing Williams to a multi-year extension in 2020.
Top free agent comparison: Odell Beckham Jr., 2023
| Player | Receiving grade | Yards per route run | Average depth of target | Yards after catch per reception | APY as % of Cap at signing |
| Calvin Ridley | 69.3 | 1.49 | 12.6 | 2.8 | |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 76.9 | 1.62 | 13.6 | 3.3 | 6.7% |
*All data in tables reflects two years prior to UFA contract signing
Contract Projection: Franchise tag
10. T Mike Onwenu, New England Patriots
Onwenu has been shuffled around endlessly throughout his rookie contract but is once again back at right tackle since Week 7 of 2023, the position he seems most comfortable playing as a solid pass protector and a strong gap scheme blocker with good footwork to combo block at the line and get to the second level fairly well.
Onwenu is not the quickest player off the line, given his massive frame, but has the strength to wall off backside pursuit defenders in the run game with a solid base and heavy hands when called upon.
Top free agent comparison: Daryl Williams, 2021
| Player | Pass-block grade | True pass set pass-block grade | Negative run-block grade percentage | APY as % of Cap at signing | |
| Mike Onwenu | 74.7 | 66.9 | 13.7% | ||
| Daryl Williams | 76.6 | 72.9 | 10.0% | 4.4% | |
*All data in tables reflects two years prior to UFA contract signing
Contract Projection: Four years, $58 million ($14.5 million per year), $33.25 million total guaranteed
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