Last year was all about the quarterback movement, while this year's class is heavy on contributors in the secondary and at tight end. A big part of the puzzle, though, isn't just making the big splash. It's making the moves for lesser money that pay off big, such as wide receiver/running back Cordarrelle Patterson last year with the Atlanta Falcons .
Trubisky ranked third-to-last in passing grade across his four seasons starting for the Chicago Bears . No downfield passing, poor decision-making and inaccurate throws plagued Chicago's offense with the 2017 No. 2 overall pick. It has been rumored that many quarterback-needy teams are interested in Trubisky's services anyway, blaming some of the struggles on Matt Nagy. There's enough data to show that the woes are a Trubisky problem.
There is an argument to be made that Mariota is the most alluring free-agent quarterback on the market. That says a lot about the options out there, but if there has to be a choice, it's Mariota. He has played meaningful NFL action in just one game over the last two years in Las Vegas — Week 15 of 2020 — and the results were quite good, as evidenced by his 82.1 PFF grade. However, prior seasons showed that he shouldn't be counted on to produce at that level on a weekly basis. His career-best passing grade with the Titans (72.1) occurred in 2017, and it ranked 17th in the NFL. Mariota is the definition of a midtier option and could be seen as a bridge for a team with a rookie. His next team needs to employ a play-action-heavy offense that uses his skill in the designed run game.
2021 team: Broncos | Age entering 2022 season: 29
Gordon is projected to receive the second-most-guaranteed money at running back in free agency. With untrustworthy receiving — he ranks last in receiving grade since 2018 — and having just crossed over a concerning 1,500 career carries, this looks like a bad investment, even if it's a relatively marginal amount compared to every other position.
2021 team: 49ers | Age entering 2022 season: 30
It's only a matter of time before Mostert follows Mike McDaniel to the Miami Dolphins . McDaniel is going to change Miami to an outside-zone-dominant run scheme, which is where Mostert does his best work. The speedy back ranked sixth and 13th among running backs in PFF grade in 2019 and 2020 before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 1 of 2021. Age and injuries are a concern, but when healthy he's an elusive, big-play threat.
WIDE RECEIVER 2021 team: Packers | Age entering 2022 season: 27
Valdes-Scantling has blazing speed that hasn't been able to translate to consistent production when healthy. He has generated 1.41 yards per route run in his four years with the Packers despite having an MVP throwing him the ball. MVS has a large frame at 6-foot-4, but he has struggled to win at the catch point with just 14 contested catches on 48 such targets in his career. He's a boom-or-bust weapon, and most of the time it has been the latter.
2021 team: Falcons | Age entering 2022 season: 26
This free-agent class is full of quality wide receivers, but there are only so many top guys to go around. Gage is in that next tier of wideouts and should be viewed as a good consolation prize for the teams that lose out on the top options. He became a more featured piece in Atlanta's offense over the last couple of years and has performed admirably, posting 76.4 and 74.7 PFF grades over the last two seasons. Gage owned an 84.1 receiving grade — ninth in the NFL — from Week 11 on this past season. He has generated separation against single coverage at an 88th percentile rate since 2020. Any team that needs a receiver who can consistently get open at the short and intermediate levels of the field should target Gage in free agency.
PFF's customizable mock draft simulator TIGHT END 2021 team: Giants | Age entering 2022 season: 28
Teams should be careful with expecting Engram to play a major role in their offense. He has earned a single-season PFF grade above 65.0 in just one of his five years in the NFL. In 2021, Engram was one of the three lowest-graded tight ends in the league with a 53.5 overall mark. He has failed to live up to his first-round status but is still projected to receive top-10 tight end money on an annual basis in free agency.
2021 team: Cowboys | Age entering 2022 season: 26
Schultz is arguably the best tight end available in free agency, as he's coming off a season in which he was the sixth-highest-graded and third-most-valuable tight end in the NFL. Schultz is good at finding soft spots in zone, doesn't have an extensive injury history, adds value after the catch, wins at the catch point and holds his own in the run game. He ranked sixth or higher at the position last year in drop rate (3.4%), contested catch rate (63.2%, 12/19) and broken tackles after the catch (13). If Dallas is forced to let him walk, a team like Tennessee makes a lot of sense as a landing spot.
OFFENSIVE TACKLE 2021 team: Jaguars | Age entering 2022 season: 26
Robinson is projected to earn a three-year, $40.5 million deal in free agency, according to PFF, despite years of subpar play. He has generated negative PFF Wins Above Replacement (WAR) all four seasons on the field for the Jaguars. While Robinson improved in pass-protection this past season, he still produced well below the position average.
2021 team: Rams | Age entering 2022 season: 27
Noteboom should be on the radar for teams that desperately need a tackle but don't have the cap space to target one of the top options in free agency. He doesn't have a wealth of experience at tackle, but the flashes he has shown the last two seasons, in particular, make him someone teams should target considering the low price he will command.
Noteboom hardly played during his 2018 rookie campaign before starting at left guard in 2019 for the Rams. It was a rocky experience, as Noteboom posted poor grades before a torn ACL and MCL in Week 6 cut his season short. However, he was seemingly reborn when he returned from those injuries. Noteboom moved to tackle to serve as Andrew Whitworth ‘s backup and performed admirably in his stead the last two seasons, posting an 80.8 pass-block grade across 407 pass-block snaps at left tackle since 2020. Sean McVay's offense does a good job of taking stress off the offensive line with a lower rate of true pass sets than other offenses, and that's the kind of system Noteboom belongs in if he doesn't re-sign with the Super Bowl champions. Chicago and Miami stand out as possible candidates.
OFFENSIVE GUARD 2021 team: Ravens | Age entering 2022 season: 27
Bozeman is perhaps the least overrated of any of the players listed in this article, but the expectations for him in 2022 and beyond might be a little too high. He reclaimed his career by moving to center in 2021 after three years at guard. Bozeman earned a 73.3 PFF grade last season, which is nearly 10 points higher than his previous career-best. That said, Bozeman is scheme-limited and saw most of his production bump for 2021 happen during a stretch of games early in the year.
2021 team: Cowboys | Age entering 2022 season: 25
Yes, I know the penalties are an issue, as Williams committed an NFL-leading 17 penalties in 2021 and was benched for a short stretch during the season. Even with all of those plays baked into the PFF grading system, Williams still finished as a top-10-graded guard for the 2021 season (75.2) and has been one of the NFL's 15 most valuable guards in back-to-back seasons. The penalties should regress in 2022, as they weren't an issue before. He's not going to be one of the five highest-paid guards in free agency and probably will receive something akin to a three-year, $20 million deal. However, the scheme doesn't matter — if a team needs a guard, it should pursue Williams over the much pricier options.
PFF's 2022 NFL Draft Guide Subscribe today for access… EDGE RUSHER 2021 team: Titans | Age entering 2022 season: 26
Landry racked up cleanup and unblocked pressures in 2021, leading to a projected contract of $60 million across four years this offseason. Despite his high pressure and sack totals, Landry earned a 56.8 pass-rush grade last season. He actually generated negative PFF WAR for the year. This screams, “Buyer beware.”
2021 team: Cowboys | Age entering 2022 season: 29
Gregory has had a rocky NFL career with multiple suspensions, but he was a featured piece on the Cowboys' defense this past season. He ranked 12th among qualifying edge defenders in pass-rush grade (84.7) and tied for sixth in pressure rate (15.5%). Teams may be cautious to sign Gregory given his history, an offseason knee surgery and role, but there is no denying his special tools. Between his lateral quickness, explosiveness and improved plan, Gregory showed he can generate value as a rotational pass-rusher.
INTERIOR DEFENSIVE LINE 2021 team: Bears | Age entering 2022 season: 26
Nichols is projected to fetch a three-year, $24 million deal this offseason with $13.75 million guaranteed, according to PFF. For a player that has generated negative WAR in two of the last three years, that is a bit too much. Nichols' versatility will be coveted, but his unspectacular career should cause teams to be cautious in shelling out major cash for his services.
2021 team: Ravens | Age entering 2022 season: 36
This is obviously a name a lot of people know, as Campbell has racked up numerous accolades throughout his NFL career, including an All-Pro appearance, a spot on the 2010s All-Decade Team, six Pro Bowls and the 2019 Walter Payton Man of the Year Award. That said, many are starting to put the “washed-up” tag on Campbell. He may not be performing as he did in his prime when he rattled off four straight elite seasons with 90.0-plus grades from 2016 through 2019, but he's still one of the best players at the position.
He earned an 80.8 PFF grade last year with the Ravens, which cracked the top 10 among qualifying interior defensive linemen, and his positively graded run play rate trailed only Aaron Donald ‘s for the best at the position. The veteran has come close to obtaining a Super Bowl ring but still hasn't hoisted the Lombardi Trophy during his 14 years in the NFL. He is ring-chasing at this point in his career, and contenders — such as Buffalo — should strongly consider bringing Campbell in.
LINEBACKER
2021 team: Falcons | Age entering 2022 season: 27
Oluokun has left a lot to be desired as a starter for Atlanta over the last two seasons. He owns a 48.9 PFF grade collectively over that span, ranking 45th of 65 qualifiers. Despite that, Oluokun is likely to secure a four-year, $40 million contract in free agency, according to PFF's projections. This is because linebackers are generally rewarded for high tackle totals even though it's a flawed method of evaluation.
PFF’s 2022 NFL free agency rankings WAR 2021 team: Broncos | Age entering 2022 season: 30
Johnson was having an incredible 2021 campaign before suffering a torn pec in Week 6, as he owned an 81.0 PFF grade and hadn't missed a tackle on 34 attempts. In 2019 and 2020, he was one of the five highest-graded off-ball linebackers in the league. The 30-year-old's pro career got off to a late start, but he has more than proved that he belongs as a starting linebacker. Regardless of the scheme, any team with a hole at linebacker should look to bring in Johnson.
CORNERBACK 2021 team: Panthers | Age entering 2022 season: 26
It will be a tall task for Jackson to live up to the two-year, $20 million deal he is projected to receive in free agency considering he has produced below-average PFF grades in two of the last three seasons. He does have high-quality speed, but he isn't likely going to be much more than a No. 2 corner in a zone-heavy defense.
2021 team: Broncos | Age entering 2022 season: 30
The Vic Fangio tree of defenses is spreading like wildfire throughout the NFL, and any of those teams in need of a slot corner — hands-down the most under-appreciated position in the game — should call Callahan. He is versatile and can play on the outside in a pinch, but his slot coverage is among the best in the PFF database. Callahan is a top-three-graded player in the slot since 2017. Durability has been an issue of late, but given his projected contract and ceiling when healthy, it wouldn't be surprising if Callahan's performance exceeded his contract value. The Chargers and Vikings stand out as possible suitors.
SAFETY 2021 team: Seahawks | Age entering 2022 season: 29
Diggs is a good safety, but he's not worthy of the top-tier money he probably will cost. His career-best PFF grade came in 2019 when he earned a 73.4 overall mark. And that still wasn't enough to crack the top 20 at the position. Diggs is a reliable, but not elite, starting safety.
2021 team: Jets | Age entering 2022 season: 28
Maye is going to sign a one-year, prove-it deal in free agency after rupturing his Achilles in the midst of his 2021 campaign. The Jets safety role changed this past year when he played far more in the box, which played a part in a dip in PFF grade. But his multiple seasons of high grades at deep safety should draw interest from several teams. Since 2018, Maye owns the second-highest PFF grade at free safety, behind only Kevin Byard .
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