Measuring fourth-down aggressiveness: Where every NFL team stands after Week 3

• The “Tush Push” is back in Philly: The Philadelphia Eagles have been the most aggressive team on fourth downs this season.

• The Chargers are playing with three downs: The Los Angeles Chargers are the only team in the league that has yet to go for it on fourth down.

• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!

Estimated reading time: 3 minutes

It’s never too early to start preparing for next season, and for PFF, that means looking at ways to improve PFF Premium Stats. And one way we’re looking to enhance the experience is by introducing more data into the mix.

After introducing several new and innovative metrics last week, we're now unveiling a fourth-down aggressiveness metric, measuring how frequently and willingly teams attempt to convert on fourth down.

Here is how the league's teams have fared through three weeks of action, with a look back at 2023 included for historical context.

How PFF's fourth-down aggressiveness metric works

This metric focuses on how often teams go for it on fourth down, based on how much more (or less) frequently a team opts to go for it compared to traditional norms. It’s not a measure of whether the decision was correct but rather an assessment of how a team's aggressiveness compares to historical tendencies. Instead of simply counting how many times a team attempts a fourth-down conversion, this metric accounts for the varying opportunities teams have during a game.

As noted, a team could consistently make the best choices on fourth down throughout an entire season and still have a low aggressiveness rating. Conversely, a team could make poor decisions yet earn a high aggressiveness rating. This metric is not about right or wrong decisions—it highlights how often a team goes for it on fourth down relative to what is typically expected.

To calculate this, we’ve built a model using data from every regular and postseason game since 2006. The model evaluates every fourth-down scenario, considering factors like field position, score margin, time remaining, timeouts, and yards to go. It estimates how often a team would traditionally go for it in each situation. The result shows how much more or less frequently a team goes for it, expressed as a percentage compared to historical norms.

Teams are then categorized into six levels of aggressiveness: Daring, bold, resolute, hesitant, cautious and conservative.

Fourth-down aggressiveness through Week 3

Fourth-down aggressiveness in 2023