• The Patriots have their long-term QB and plenty of assets: Drake Maye has performed well despite playing in a less-than-optimal situation.
• The Jets are still uber-talented: New York's 4-10 record doesn't represent the quality of players the team will bring back in 2025.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes
For many NFL organizations and fanbases, the holiday season begins to coincide with the start of the offseason. Instead of focusing on playoff standings, attention gravitates toward mock drafts and free agency trackers.
While seven NFL teams have already clinched a playoff spot, seven others still have only three or fewer wins. But while those squads may not be pursuing their postseason dreams any longer, many can still find some silver linings.
From the return of injured stars to young pieces to build around, here are reasons for optimism for the 10 worst teams in 2024.
New York Giants (2-12): A fresh start at quarterback and WR Malik Nabers
While the Giants initially planned to ride out Daniel Jones‘ four-year, $160 million contract, they’ve relieved some serious pressure by finally accepting the tough reality and moving on.
Jones recorded just 11 big-time throws compared to 18 turnover-worthy plays over the last two seasons and hasn’t posted a PFF passing grade above 70.6 since 2021. Now, the Giants have a clear opportunity to land one of the draft's top quarterbacks, with prospects like Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders or Miami’s Cam Ward potentially on the radar.
The other relieving element for the Giants is that next year’s quarterback already has a sure-fire WR1 on the team in Nabers, who’s thrived despite very underwhelming play under center. Nabers’ 82.6 receiving grade leads all qualified rookie wideouts, and his 82.3 overall grade sits fifth among all rookies who have played at least 100 snaps on offense. Moreover, the LSU product is tied for 10th in first downs gained and ninth in missed tackles forced among all wideouts. There’s no second-guessing picking him at No. 6 overall.
Las Vegas Raiders (2-12): Brock Bowers and money to spend
The Raiders could’ve gone in several different directions in the 2024 NFL Draft, but Bowers just happened to fall into their laps — and that path has been marvelous.
In only his first year, Bowers currently ranks second among qualified tight ends in overall grade (86.2) and receiving grade (89.2) while ranking third in yards per route run (2.12). Bowers has a real chance to wind up as the NFL’s Rookie of the Year despite Las Vegas holding the second-worst team passing grade in the league — and once the QB spot is upgraded, the Georgia product will only be that much more dynamic.
In addition to likely picking inside the top three, the Raiders boast $110 million in cap space, per Over the Cap. Much of that seems like it should be allocated to the defensive side of the ball, especially the secondary, as Las Vegas’ 45.8 coverage grade among corners and safeties is the worst in the league.
Finding other threats in the receiving game next to Bowers and Jakobi Meyers, as well as a viable rushing threat, could offer quicker fixes than anticipated.
New England Patriots (3-11): Drake Maye and cap space
The Patriots face a daunting road to returning to contender status, but they’ve seemingly already mitigated one of the biggest headaches in all of sports: finding a franchise quarterback.
Despite playing behind the worst offensive line in football, Maye has earned a 74.7 overall grade with a 67.9 passing grade — both of which are top-three among starting rookie quarterbacks. Maye will need to cut down on the turnover-worthy plays (3.7% rate), but he’s also shown a propensity for impressive plays, having put up a 3.6% big-time throw rate, 23rd at the position.
No team has more money at its disposal, with $132.5 million available to utilize in free agency. Finding Maye upgrades at receiver and along the offensive line will be priorities, but bolstering the defensive line and secondary next to bright spots Christian Gonzalez and Keion White is also critical.
Jacksonville Jaguars (3-11): A solid young core
The Jaguars are 3-11, but few teams have a greater talent disparity than Jacksonville. Despite their record, this roster is loaded with talent on both sides of the ball, even if some adjustments are needed.
On offense, the Jaguars will return Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas Jr., whose 80.3 PFF receiving grade ranks second among rookie receivers. Thomas also leads all rookies with 956 yards and eight touchdowns. On top of that, Evan Engram will be back in the mix, and the team has its long-term left tackle in Walker Little, who earned a 73.3 pass-blocking grade.
Jacksonville’s defense ranks 32nd in EPA allowed per play and 25th in success rate allowed, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t legitimate studs on that side of the ball. Josh Hines-Allen (52 pressures, 16.2% pass-rush win rate) remains one of the most ferocious edge defenders in football, while Devin Lloyd (89.5 grades in run defense and tackling) has taken leaps in his third season. Travon Walker (42 pressures, 29 stops) has continued to get better, too.
The bottom line is that with a better coaching staff, the Jaguars should receive improved results next year without completely overhauling the roster.
Carolina Panthers (3-11): An offense trending upward
Although the Panthers field one of the worst defenses in football, the team’s offense has inspired real optimism — especially in the last few weeks. Since Week 9, the Panthers’ 72.4 team offense grade ranks 20th in the NFL.
Bryce Young has demonstrated glimmers of the touted prospect many expected to become an NFL star, ranking 13th in passing grade since Week 9 with a 6.7% big-time throw rate (T-6th). Chuba Hubbard (82.3 rushing grade, 3.36 yards after contact per carry) has quietly emerged as one of the most reliable running backs in the NFL and is now under contract for four more years. Carolina’s investment in its offensive line is also paying dividends, with the team slotting 11th in overall grade among all units.
The Panthers still haven’t found a way to win games against premier opponents, but the fact they’ve even played closely with the likes of the Chiefs, Eagles and Buccaneers is promising. This team should keep trending upward next season, assuming its offensive foundation remains intact.
Tennessee Titans (3-11): Emerging defensive pieces
The Titans offense hasn’t provided many sparks in 2024, but its defense has generally been solid, all things considered. Tennessee is currently 17th in EPA allowed per play and ninth in success rate allowed despite hitting a bit of a rough patch in recent weeks.
Most of that solid play has been due to unsung players turning heads. Jack Gibbens (83.2 overall grade) was a spark plug over the middle before suffering a season-ending injury; rookie T’Vondre Sweat (76.2 overall grade, 73.4 run-defense grade) has formed a study interior next to Jeffery Simmons; and Arden Key (37 pressures, 11.4% pass-rush win rate) has been solid as an edge defender.
The Titans will need to significantly upgrade their offense (especially at quarterback and offensive tackle) and make complementary defensive moves. Still, Brian Callahan and defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson can hang their hat on some players to build around.
Cleveland Browns (3-11): A fresh start at quarterback and defensive talent
The Browns have parallels with the Giants in that this offseason may finally afford them the chance to shed a deadweight contract at quarterback.
Deshaun Watson’s tenure in Cleveland hasn’t come close to meeting expectations, with Watson managing only a 65.8 passing grade and a 3.4% big-time throw rate in the last two years. Given the team’s likely top-10 draft slot, the Browns should face few barriers in selecting a top-flight quarterback in the first round — like Alabama’s Jalen Milroe. Trading Watson after June 1, when his dead cap incurred would drop considerably, isn’t entirely out of the picture, either.
Moreover, Cleveland’s defense still boasts a boatload of talent, even if the unit hasn’t performed as admirably as in 2023. Myles Garrett (70 pressures, 24.4% pass-rush win rate) remains one of the best defensive players in the NFL; Denzel Ward (74.2 coverage grade, 17 pass breakups) is still a bona fide CB1; Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (80.6 overall grade) was one of the top linebackers in football before suffering a neck injury; and Isaiah McGuire, Ronnie Hickman Jr. and Jordan Hicks have all notched overall grades of at least 77.3.
By bolstering the team’s offense and making adjustments on defense, the Browns could return to competing in the not-too-distant future.
New York Jets (4-10): A promising two-way foundation
Much like the Jaguars, the Jets’ 4-10 mark doesn’t reflect the caliber of talent on the team — on both sides of the ball.
Even at 41, Aaron Rodgers has performed well in his first legitimate season as a Jet, with his 78.4 passing grade ranking ninth among qualifying quarterbacks. Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams have both earned 75.5-plus receiving grades, offering Rodgers (or whoever is next year’s man under center) a legitimate one-two punch. Breece Hall (61.5 rushing grade) hasn’t been as excellent as expected, but he thrived in 2022 and 2023. New York’s offensive line is also one of the most improved in football, powered by John Simpson (80.5 overall grade) and Alijah Vera-Tucker (74.9 overall grade).
New York’s defense has underperformed this season, but the talent within the group remains undeniable. Sauce Gardner is in the midst of his worst season to date, and he’s still recorded a 72.0 coverage grade. Quinnen Williams also hasn’t been as well-rounded as before, but he’s still secured 50 pressures for the third straight season. Pending free agent Jamien Sherwood has broken out and put up an 81.7 run-defense grade.
There’s no denying that Gang Green has a slew of overarching questions to answer this offseason. But next year’s head coach and/or quarterback can rest assured that this team will still be relatively loaded going into 2025.
Chicago Bears (4-10: A good defense and cap space
Chicago’s season of promise was hastily struck down, but all hope shouldn’t be lost even in another surrendered season.
While the Bears offense has been out of rhythm for most of 2024, the team’s defense has remained firm, ranking 12th in EPA allowed per play and 11th in success rate allowed. Free-agent signing Kevin Byard (78.7 overall grade) has quietly played like one of the better safeties in football. Gervon Dexter Sr. (71.8 overall grade) has improved as a run defender and tackler, cutting his missed tackle rate by almost 13%. The team’s secondary is also in relatively good shape, even in a low season for Jaylon Johnson, with Johnson and Kyler Gordon collecting coverage grades of 68.4 or better.
Of course, the Bears have areas of need — namely, offensive line, pass rush and linebacker. One of those can be assuaged with a first-round pick, but Ryan Poles also has $82 million in his back pocket. With the fifth-most cap space in the league this offseason, expect another spending spree from Poles, who doled out $145 million last spring and summer.
New Orleans Saints (5-9): Offensive pieces and the chance to reset
Ranking 25th in overall team grade, the Saints haven’t offered much consistent optimism during 2024. Yet, this offseason should give the organization a long-awaited opportunity to look in the mirror — and toward the future.
Some of the few stable pieces in New Orleans include an offensive nucleus with the ability to play at a high level. Erik McCoy (93.4 overall grade) has positioned himself within the top echelon of NFL centers when healthy. Chris Olave (83.0 receiving grade) still ranks 15th in receiving grade with the 20th-best drop rate (3%) among qualifiers. Alvin Kamara (73.7 overall grade) hasn’t slowed down as a rusher despite already being 29. Even Derek Carr (86.7 passing grade) has played well above expectation, although uncertainty surrounds his future in New Orleans.
As usual, the Saints are in the depths of cap-space purgatory, having to clear $63 million before spending anything this offseason. Trading older players like Demario Davis and Tyrann Mathieu would not only clear money but also enable New Orleans to find long-term answers at key spots.
On top of that, drafting a marquee defensive lineman or edge rusher could finally allow the team to move on from Bryan Bresee (37.8 overall grade). The bottom line is that the Saints don’t have much room to work with, so some difficult decisions will need to be made to avoid another disastrous season.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.