• Buffalo Bills (-3) vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Josh Allen was the highest-graded quarterback during the regular season and can outplay Patrick Mahomes in any game. Expect Allen to have one of his best postseason games ever in Round 2 against their biggest rival.
• Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers (-9.5): There isn't an EDGE defender in the NFL who is a more complete player than Nick Bosa, but he could be in for a tough matchup in Round 2. The Packers did an excellent job of limiting Micah Parsons last week, but it might be more difficult against Bosa considering all of the other talent on the defensive line for the 49ers.
• Get ahead of the game: PFF's Best Bets Tool uses PFF data to uncover the biggest edges in the betting market. Click here to see the best bets for this week.
Estimated reading time: 10 minutes
Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens (-9)
Matchup to watch: Ravens RT Morgan Moses vs. Texans EDGE Will Anderson Jr.
Moses hasn't been 100 percent healthy all season as he's dealt with a shoulder injury. He's missed more snaps this year than ever before, but he is still one of the top right tackles in the league. Now that he's had multiple weeks to rest up for the playoffs, Moses should be healthier than ever for this matchup.
The Ravens will need him to have a big game because he’s expected to see a ton of rookie sensation Will Anderson Jr,, who led the Texans in pressures (six) in the wild-card round. Anderson has recorded 26 pressures in his last five games despite playing on a high-ankle sprain. Keep an eye on the Moses-Anderson matchup, as it should be a good one on Saturday.
Highest-graded player: Texans WR Nico Collins (91.3)
If the NFL had a “Most Improved” award, that would go to Nico Collins this season. Collins had a solid 2022 season, finishing with a 72.4 overall PFF grade. The quarterback change in Houston completely unlocked his game, as he racked up over 1,300 yards in 15 games this season and dominated the Cleveland Browns in the wild-card round. This will be another tough matchup against Baltimore but expect the third-year receiver from Michigan to have another big performance.
Best bet: Over 43.5 (-110)
The Ravens should be close to full health on offense and will have all five starting offensive linemen available. The offense has posted huge numbers whenever it has been healthy upfront. The only concern on the OVER here is that Baltimore's defense has been outstanding at limiting points this season but look for C.J. Stroud and the Texans to score in the low 20s, which should allow the over to hit.
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers (-9.5)
Matchup to watch: 49ers TE George Kittle vs. Packers LB Quay Walker
Kittle finished the 2023 season as PFF’s highest-graded tight end (87.6). He ranked No. 1 in PFF receiving (85.9) and run-blocking grade (79.0). He is the most complete tight end in the NFL and could have a huge day against the Packers linebackers. Albeit in garbage time, Jake Ferguson caught 10 passes for 93 yards and three touchdowns against Green Bay. Kittle is a much better player and should have a lot of success against the Packers' middle defenders. If Green Bay can't slow him down, it'll be a long day for the NFC's No. 7 seed.
Highest-graded player: 49ers EDGE Nick Bosa (92.7)
After winning the Defensive Player of the Year award in 2022, Bosa has gone under the radar this season. That is a mistake after Bosa finished the 2023 season as the NFL's second-highest graded edge defender. There isn't an edge defender in the NFL who is a more complete player than Bosa, but he could be in for a tough matchup this week. The Packers did an excellent job of limiting Micah Parsons last week, but it might be more difficult against Bosa considering all of the other talent on the 49ers' defensive line.
Best bet: 49ers -9.5 (-110)
The Packers pulled off a big upset in the wild-card round, defeating the Dallas Cowboys despite being a seven-point underdog. Don’t expect that to be the case again because the 49ers have a pretty strong history against Green Bay in the postseason. San Francisco should be able to score at will on offense and its defense should have some answers for Jordan Love. The 49ers are built for the postseason, so it’s hard to envision them not winning this game by double-digits.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions (-6.5)
Matchup to watch: Lions C Frank Ragnow vs. Buccaneers NT Vita Vea
One of the premier matchups in this game will feature Ragnow against Vea in the middle of the trenches. Ragnow finished the 2023 season as the NFL's second-highest-graded center, dominating in the run game. However, there might not be a more impactful run defender in the league than Vea, especially when he is fully healthy. This is a huge matchup for both sides, and one that each needs to win to control the line of scrimmage.
Highest-graded player: Lions EDGE Aidan Hutchinson (91.3)
In his first career playoff game, Hutchinson recorded nine pressures, four hurries and two sacks for the Lions. He had a 42.9% pass rush win rate on true pass sets, which is among the highest of his career. If the Lions want to slow down Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers, they will need Hutchinson to have another monster performance.
Best bet: Buccaneers +6.5 (-110)
Can Tampa Bay’s offense keep up with Detroit? That remains to be seen, but the Buccaneers have been excellent on defense over the last few months. Their pass rush should be able to get to Jared Goff, and they’ve been excellent at stopping the run. Look for the Lions to win this game outright, but the Buccaneers to keep it within a touchdown on Sunday afternoon.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills (-3)
Matchup to watch: Chiefs WR Rashee Rice vs. Bills NCB Taron Johnson
Johnson was named first-team All-Pro as a slot defender this season, but his status is in question due to a concussion. That could be a huge loss for Buffalo with Rashee Rice lining up primarily in the slot. Rice had a tremendous performance in the first playoff game of his career, leading all receivers in yards. If Johnson can't go, look for Rice to have another huge performance on Sunday.
Highest-graded player: Bills QB Josh Allen (91.8)
If the Bills are finally going to beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the postseason, they will need Allen to play at a superhuman level. And to his credit, he's done that for most of the year. Allen was PFF's highest-graded quarterback during the regular season and can outplay Patrick Mahomes in any game. Expect Allen to have one of his best postseason games ever against their biggest rival.
Best bet: Chiefs +3 (-110)
Patrick Mahomes will play in his first-ever road playoff game. That certainly doesn't mean he is expected to struggle, but it's more of a statement of how good he's been at avoiding playing on the road in the playoffs. Kansas City is the much healthier team going into this matchup and their defense has really come on over the last two months. Getting a healthy KC team +3 is just too good to pass up here in Round 2 of the playoffs.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.