The 2023 Detroit Lions have done the unthinkable. For the first time since the 1991 season, they won a playoff game, defeating former Lions legend Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams to advance to the divisional round.
This team claimed its first-ever NFC North title and its first division title overall since 1993.
Leading the way in this historic season for Detroit is quarterback Jared Goff, a player who was once trending toward being a forgotten man in the NFL. Now, he has become the savior of a franchise.
Goff was effectively cast aside by the Rams after being taken with the first pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. He got off to a rough start as a rookie, completing just 54.6% of his passes for 1,089 yards, five touchdowns, seven interceptions and a 42.9 passing grade in seven games. He had an equally abysmal three big-time throws and 12 turnover-worthy plays as a rookie.
Ahead of the 2017 season, the Rams hired Sean McVay to replace Jeff Fisher. The move helped Goff immensely. His passing grade jumped to 73.2 in the regular season after he recorded 3,804 passing yards, 28 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions. He improved to 24 big-time throws and 17 turnover-worthy plays as the Rams won the NFC West at 11-5, just a year after going 4-12.
Jared Goff Career Grades | Regular Season
2018 was a banner year for Goff, as he generated a career-high 84.3 passing grade in the regular season, passing for 4,858 yards and 32 scores with 32 big-time throws en route to a second consecutive division title. Goff led the Rams to Super Bowl 53 thanks to two strong performances against the Cowboys and Saints. However, he faltered in the big game, completing just 19 of his 40 passes for 229 yards and an interception on his way to a poor 49.2 passing grade. The Rams were held to just three points against the Patriots, tied for the fewest by any Super Bowl participant in the game’s history.
Goff never reached those heights again as the Rams' starting quarterback. His passing grade dropped in each of the next two seasons, as low as 71.6 in 2020. Following that campaign, the Rams and Lions orchestrated a blockbuster trade, sending Goff to Detroit along with numerous draft picks and shipping Matthew Stafford, the Lions’ all-time passing leader, to Los Angeles.
The trade paid immediate dividends for the Rams, looking very one-sided from the get-go. Stafford won a Super Bowl for Los Angeles in his first season away from the Lions, while Detroit floundered to a 3-13-1 season. Goff also struggled mightily, throwing for 3,245 yards with 19 touchdowns, eight picks, 12 big-time throws and 18 turnover-worthy plays for the lowest passing grade (61.7) of his career since his rookie year.
Things were looking ugly for Goff to start 2022, too. He has earned just a 66.2 passing grade through Week 8, hampered by a 10-to-13 big-time-throw-to-turnover-worthy play ratio as the Lions got off to a 1-6 start. While Goff did deal with struggles over the next four games — his highest passing grade during that stretch was 65.7 against the Bills — the Lions started winning, going 3-1 during that run.
Starting in Week 13, Goff’s play took off. From then through the end of the season, he recorded an 85.0 passing grade, going below 75.0 in a game only once to close out the year. The Lions won five of six games to finish 9-8, and they narrowly missed out on the playoffs.
Expectations in Detroit were sky-high heading into the 2023 season. And the Lions exceeded them, going 12-5 for their most wins in a season since 1991. Leading the way was Goff, who managed to eclipse his 2018 performance. He tied his career-high passing grade (84.3) in the regular season while throwing for 4,669 yards, 30 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. He had only five games with a passing grade below 70.0 all season while also sporting the lowest turnover-worthy play rate of his career (2.5%). Goff also ranked fourth in PFF WAR (3.12).
The Lions then toppled the Rams and Stafford in the wild-card round — a storybook matchup after all that both quarterbacks went through.
Several factors ignited this overwhelmingly successful season — and it isn't the first time Goff has defied expectations. After a disastrous rookie season, the Rams brought in Sean McVay, who helped turn Goff from a potential draft bust into a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback. Goff’s first year in Detroit was a struggle, as well. The Lions then promoted Ben Johnson from passing game coordinator to offensive coordinator in 2022.
In 2021, the year before Johnson’s promotion, Detroit featured one of the least threatening passing attacks in football. The Lions ranked just 22nd in expected points added play while having the league’s second-lowest big-time throw rate. This is, in large part, due to the Lions ranking last in average depth of target and second to last in air yards rate (how much of a quarterback’s passing yards come before the catch).
It took a little while to get going, as the Lions initially struggled in their first few games under Johnson. But since Week 9 of the 2022 season, when their offense truly started to click, they rank third in EPA per passing play (0.175), trailing only the 49ers and Cowboys. The Lions are also one of just five teams generating positive EPA on more than half of their passing plays, the others being the 49ers, Cowboys, Chiefs and Bills. Goff has thrown for the second-most yards and the third-most touchdowns during this stretch with an 83.3 passing grade.
As Detroit prepares to host Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a chance to return to the NFC championship game for the first time in more than three decades, expect the passing game to play a major role. Regardless of the result, this has been a season to remember for the Lions.
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