Captain Checkdown: The quarterbacks who most and least rely on checkdown passes

• Baker Mayfield paced the NFL in 2022: Mayfield, with two teams last season, threw 40 checkdown passes on 335 overall passing attempts.

• Jalen Hurts recorded the lowest checkdown rate: Hurts made only 16 checkdown passes on 460 total attempts in 2022.

• Russell Wilson resorted to checkdowns in key situations: Third downs can make or break drives, and Wilson led the league in checkdown rate (13.8%) on such plays.

Estimated reading time: 7 minutes

Who is the NFL’s “Captain Checkdown” when it comes to quarterback play?

There’s nothing inherently wrong with checkdown passes — the best quarterbacks in the league employ them regularly, and they can be vital to an offense's success and efficiency — but quarterbacks should never be too keen on them.

Checkdowns are designed to generate a positive play out of a negative situation. Elite coverage or unexpected pressure can disrupt a passing play's timing and erase the opportunity for a bigger play, and checkdowns allow signal-callers to still generate yardage rather than throw the ball away or take a sack.

The problems arise when quarterbacks are too quick to hit their checkdown options, which fails to allow bigger plays time to develop. With that in mind, which NFL quarterbacks fall into which categories?

HIGHEST CHECKDOWN RATE | 2022

Rank	Name	Total Att.	Checkdown Att.	Pct.
1	Baker Mayfield	335	40	11.9%
2	Justin Herbert	699	82	11.7%
3	Joe Burrow	606	70	11.5%
4	Taylor Heinicke	259	27	10.4%
5	Russell Wilson	484	49	10.1%
6	Andy Dalton	378	37	9.7%
7	Josh Allen	567	54	9.5%
8	Kenny Pickett	389	36	9.2%
9	Davis Mills	479	44	9.1%
10	Mac Jones	442	40	9.0%
11	Derek Carr	502	45	8.9%
12	Dak Prescott	394	34	8.6%
13	Matt Ryan	461	40	8.6%
14	Carson Wentz	276	23	8.3%
15	Aaron Rodgers	542	45	8.3%

Quarterbacks with high checkdown rates tend to develop reputations for being “game managers” more so than “playmakers.” However, that label certainly doesn't apply to every player above.

Joe Burrow ranks sixth in checkdown attempts (119) since 2020 and has increased his usage every season. Burrow had one of the lowest checkdown rates in 2021 (5.3%), making 49 checkdown passes in 2020 and 2021 combined. He increased that figure to 70 alone this past season and had reliable targets in Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine. The pair combined for 50 targets, 330 yards and 12 first downs on such plays.

Even more notable is that Burrow's average time to throw has gotten quicker each season. This may be partly due to the Bengals' struggles with pass protection, ranking as a bottom-tier pass-blocking team in each season of the Burrow era.

Year	Bengals Pass-Blocking Grade	Burrow Average Time to Throw
2020	58.3 (sixth worst)	2.94 seconds
2021	56.9 (eighth worst)	2.84 seconds
2022	58.6 (third worst)	2.77 seconds

Josh Allen, like Burrow, finished with one of the lowest checkdown rates in 2021 (4.6%), yet he has thrived on his playmaking ability. Allen is one of the best dual threats at the position, which may explain his low checkdown rate early in his career. Allen ranks second in rush attempts (547) and yards (3,087) since 2018 among quarterbacks. He also has 262 combined touchdowns and first downs as a runner. As a passer, Allen ranks fifth in big-time throws (138) at a 5.5% clip (tied for sixth).

His play style can lead to high-risk, high-reward outcomes, though. Allen has led the league in turnover-worthy plays since 2018 (117) and is tied for fifth in turnover-worthy play rate (4.0%). He also has a tendency to hold onto the ball, with a 2.96-second career average time to throw.

Allen has increased his checkdown total in each of the past three seasons and set a career high in 2022 with 54. He is also tied for fifth in checkdown attempts over the past two seasons (93).

Justin Herbert‘s playstyle is slightly different from Allen’s. Herbert ranks eighth in big-time throws (80) since entering the league and boasts an impressive 1.8% turnover-worthy play rate (first). Herbert will take time to let plays develop (averages 2.70 seconds to throw), yet he also leads the league in checkdown attempts since 2020 (172). But when Austin Ekeler is your main checkdown target, those numbers make sense.

Ekeler has recorded 82 targets and 554 yards on checkdowns since 2020. He also has 25 first downs during that span, leading in three key checkdown categories. Ekeler has 3,435 career receiving yards (third) and leads running backs in receiving touchdowns (29) since 2017. He is one of the best underneath options in the NFL.

LOWEST CHECKDOWN RATE | 2022

Rank	Name	Total Att.	Checkdown Att.	Pct.
1	Jalen Hurts	460	16	3.4%
2	Trevor Lawrence	584	20	3.4%
3	Patrick Mahomes	647	27	4.1%
4	Lamar Jackson	326	15	4.6%
5	Kyler Murray	390	18	4.6%
6	Justin Fields	318	17	5.3%
7	Kirk Cousins	643	38	5.9%
8	Zach Wilson	242	15	6.1%
9	Daniel Jones	472	29	6.1%
10	Ryan Tannehill	325	21	6.4%
11	Jimmy Garoppolo	307	20	6.5%
12	Jacoby Brissett	369	24	6.5%
13	Tua Tagovailoa	400	26	6.5%
14	Jared Goff	587	38	6.5%
15	Matthew Stafford	303	21	6.9%

A few of the names on this list — Matthew Stafford, Tua Tagovailoa and Jimmy Garoppolo — won’t come as a surprise, as they have appeared on this list in previous seasons.

This year, of those with the lowest checkdown rates, many are known for their rushing ability. Seven of the quarterbacks listed rushed for more than 350 yards in 2022, with four surpassing 700 yards. All of these players also ranked top 11 in scrambles and are more than capable of moving the chains with their legs.

Name	Rushing Yards	Scrambles	Missed Tackles Forced/Att.	1DTD%
Justin Fields	1,143 (1st)	70 (1st)	0.24 (3rd)	40.9% (9th)
Lamar Jackson	765 (2nd)	25 (T-11th)	0.31 (1st)	42.3% (6th)
Jalen Hurts	758 (3rd)	44 (5th)	0.17 (6th)	40.7% (10th)
Daniel Jones	703 (5th)	56 (3rd)	0.1 (T-14th)	47.1% (2nd)
Kyler Murray	414 (7th)	25 (T-11th)	0.1 (T-14th)	33.8% (17th)
Geno Smith	366 (8th)	33 (6th)	0.7 (T-18th)	35.3% (T-14th)
Patrick Mahomes	358 (9th)	46 (4th)	0.1 (T-14th)	41.7% (8th)

Other names on this list with notable rushing metrics include Trevor Lawrence and Jacoby Brissett. Lawrence has 625 rushing yards through his first two seasons and finished 11th in yards in 2022 (291). Lawrence also increased his first-down-plus-touchdown rate from 28.8% in 2021 to 44.3% in 2022 (third). Jacoby Brissett is also not known as a rusher, but he led quarterbacks in first-down-plus-touchdown rate this past season (57.1%).

Third Down

Third downs are crucial. Quarterbacks can live to fight another day on first and second down, but third down is closer to a do-or-die situation, as there are significantly bigger consequences for coming up short of the sticks. How much does that change our checkdown lists?

HIGHEST CHECKDOWN RATE ON THIRD DOWN | 2022

Rank	Name	Total Att.	Checkdown Att.	Pct.
1	Russell Wilson	130	18	13.8%
2	Baker Mayfield	87	11	12.6%
3	Joe Burrow	146	18	12.3%
4	Matt Ryan	117	13	11.1%
5	Justin Herbert	180	19	10.5%
6	Taylor Heinicke	76	7	9.2%
7	Mac Jones	112	10	8.9%
8	Kenny Pickett	112	10	8.9%
9	Kyler Murray	88	7	7.9%
10	Tom Brady	181	14	7.7%
11	Aaron Rodgers	131	10	7.6%
12	Andy Dalton	120	9	7.5%
13	Josh Allen	118	8	6.7%
14	Derek Carr	136	9	6.6%
15	Kirk Cousins	168	11	6.5%

LOWEST CHECKDOWN RATE ON THIRD DOWN | 2022

Rank	Name	Total Att.	Checkdown Att.	Pct.
1	Lamar Jackson	81	0	0%
2	Matthew Stafford	77	1	1.2%
3	Jared Goff	146	3	2.0%
4	Justin Fields	92	2	2.1%
5	Jalen Hurts	91	2	2.1%
6	Patrick Mahomes	143	4	2.7%
7	Trevor Lawrence	146	5	3.4%
8	Tua Tagovailoa	106	4	3.7%
9	Daniel Jones	130	5	3.8%
10	Jacoby Brissett	100	4	4.0%
11	Jimmy Garoppolo	85	4	4.7%
12	Dak Prescott	101	5	4.9%
13	Davis Mills	133	7	5.2%
14	Ryan Tannehill	94	5	5.3%
15	Zach Wilson	75	4	5.3%

Most of the top five passers remained in the overall top five remain there when looking only at third downs. There is slightly more variation between the lowest overall checkdown passers and the lowest on third downs. However, the actual names also remain largely unchanged.

One player who sticks out is Dak Prescott. Prescott finished 2022 with an 8.6% overall checkdown rate (12th) but a 4.9% rate on third downs. Like Herbert, Prescott has had a reliable checkdown option in Ezekiel Elliott. Since 2017, the now-free-agent running back ranks first in targets (127) and in the top five in yards (609) and first downs (25) on checkdowns. Tony Pollard has also seen his checkdown usage increase each year in the league. He was Prescott’s main checkdown target in 2022 (18 targets for 130 yards) and projects to have an even more prominent role in 2023 with Elliott out of the fold.

Prescott's low third-down checkdown rate aligns with his overall third-down numbers. He thrived in those situations in 2022, throwing for 917 yards (13th) and eight touchdowns (tied for seventh) while recording a 6.9% big-time throw rate (sixth) and tying for the fewest sacks taken (6). Prescott, however, also threw seven picks on third down (second most).

Kirk Cousins may round out the highest checkdown rate on third downs (6.5%), but he still does not check down often. Cousins, like Prescott, generated a lot of success on third down in general, finishing third in third-down yardage (1,205) and leading the league in third-down touchdown passes (14). He didn’t throw as many interceptions (four) as Prescott, but he took more sacks (21, third most). Tight end T.J. Hockenson was Cousins’ second-most-targeted receiver on third downs (28), but he was the recipient of only two checkdowns.

Sack Rate, Throwaway Rate and Average Time to Throw

Below are the same names of the quarterbacks who checked down most and least often in 2022, only with their stats for sack rate, throwaway rate and average time to throw.

Highest Checkdown Rate | 2022

Rank	Name	Sack Rate	Throwaway Rate	AVG TTT
1	Baker Mayfield	10.7%	4.4%	2.86 (T-22nd)
2	Justin Herbert	5.4%	3.5%	2.74 (18th)
3	Joe Burrow	6.7%	3.1%	2.49 (2nd)
4	Taylor Heinicke	7.3%	5.7%	2.90 (T-25th)
5	Russell Wilson	11.3%	6.1%	2.94 (27th)
6	Andy Dalton	6.6%	4.4%	2.59 (6th)
7	Josh Allen	5.8%	4.5%	2.88 (24th)
8	Kenny Pickett	6.9%	4.6%	2.99 (T-28th)
9	Davis Mills	6.4%	3.5%	2.66 (11th)
10	Mac Jones	7.6%	4.5%	2.69 (T-14th)
11	Derek Carr	5.3%	5.7%	2.84 (20th)
12	Dak Prescott	5.0%	2.7%	2.69 (T-14th)
13	Matt Ryan	8.2%	6.5%	2.58 (T-6th)
14	Carson Wentz	9.4%	3.6%	2.58 (T-6th)
15	Aaron Rodgers	5.9%	5.3%	2.67 (T-12th)

Lowest Checkdown Rate | 2022

Rank	Name	Sack Rate	Throwaway Rate	AVG TTT
1	Jalen Hurts	7.8%	6.0%	2.86 (T-22nd)
2	Trevor Lawrence	4.6%	3.7%	2.51 (3rd)
3	Patrick Mahomes	4.0%	6.1%	2.85 (21st)
4	Lamar Jackson	8.2%	4.6%	3.11 (32nd)
5	Kyler Murray	6.4%	4.8%	2.61 (10th)
6	Justin Fields	17.2%	5.0%	3.45 (33rd)
7	Kirk Cousins	7.1%	5.1%	2.70 (17th)
8	Zach Wilson	9.5%	8.2%	3.07 (31st)
9	Daniel Jones	9.1%	5.7%	2.99 (T-28th)
10	Ryan Tannehill	10.1%	2.4%	2.67 (T-12)
11	Jimmy Garoppolo	5.8%	1.3%	2.53 (5th)
12	Jacoby Brissett	6.5%	4.8%	2.90 (T-25th)
13	Tua Tagovailoa	5.2%	4.0%	2.52 (4th)
14	Jared Goff	3.9%	5.4%	2.69 (T-14)
15	Matthew Stafford	9.5%	3.9%	2.58 (T-6th)

Is there a connection between sack rate, throwaway rate, average time to throw and checkdown rate? There could be in some cases, but it's hard to say. Justin Fields, for instance, had a 5.3% checkdown rate in 2022 and was sacked at an alarming 17.2% clip. He had the slowest delivery time among qualifying quarterbacks (3.45 seconds) and a throwaway rate of 5.0%. However, Fields was also great at picking yards up with his legs, which could have played an even greater factor in his decision not to check down. The same could be said of the other quarterbacks mentioned in the rushing table. However, none of them took sacks at the rate that Fields did.

We see examples of quarterbacks who got the ball out quickly in Trevor Lawrence (2.51 seconds), Tua Tagovailoa (2.52 seconds) and Jimmy Garoppolo (2.53 seconds) but who posted sub-6% sack rates. But then there is Matthew Stafford, who finished with a 9.5% sack rate despite having a similarly quick delivery time (2.58 seconds). Carson Wentz is in the same boat, with a sack rate nearly identical to Stafford’s (9.4%) and the same average time to throw.

Baker Mayfield and Russell Wilson both had sack rates of around 11%, and they both averaged nearly 2.9 seconds to throw. On the other hand, Derek Carr had nearly the same delivery time (2.84 seconds) yet was sacked only at a 5.3% rate.

Final Thoughts

Many different things factor into a quarterback’s checkdown usage. A higher rate could have a lot to do with pass protection and having reliable underneath players more so than playmaking ability. A lower rate could indicate an offense's ability to manufacture yards without such plays. Or it could indicate the quarterback’s ability to convert the play on his own. Overall, checkdowns remain an excellent safety option for quarterbacks, and the best ones learn when to pick their shots both downfield and underneath.