• Do the Lions have what it takes to get over the hump? Detroit boasts a Super Bowl-caliber roster in 2024 and could be poised to end a long drought.
• Malik Nabers will shine for the Giants: He has the potential to break Odell Beckham Jr.'s rookie receiving record in 2024.
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Estimated Reading Time: 16 minutes
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Arizona Cardinals: KYLER MURRAY GOES OVER 4,000 PASSING YARDS
In Kyler Murray‘s most recent full seasons, he finished just shy of 4,000 yards passing. Those happened to be the first two years of his career. With a rejuvenated receiving corps this season, he can get over the 4,000-yard mark for the first time as a pro. Rookie wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. is good enough to build a passing attack around, and Trey McBride is one of the best receiving tight ends in the game. Michael Wilson is in for a big second season, and Greg Dortch is a mismatch player with his speed and quickness.
Atlanta Falcons: TEAM RANKS TOP 5 IN OFFENSE
The Falcons have the makings of a top-five offense. Their offensive line was one of the best in the NFL last season, earning a 79.9 PFF overall grade. Running back Bijan Robinson could be in for a big second season, and Kirk Cousins will provide the Falcons with the best quarterback play they’ve had since Matt Ryan after the Falcons ranked dead last in team passing grade last season (49.4). This can be a balanced, potent offense in Atlanta in 2024.
Baltimore Ravens: TEAM SURPASSES 3,000 RUSHING YARDS (AGAIN)
When the Ravens lost to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game last year, it felt like they got away from their identity too much as one of the most dominant rushing teams in the league. The coaches will remember that throughout 2024. Baltimore has rushed for more than 3,000 yards as a team twice in recent history — in 2019 and 2020. They should get back to that again this season with Derrick Henry in the backfield and Lamar Jackson reportedly lighter and faster.
Derrick Henry | Career PFF Grades
Buffalo Bills: IF THE BILLS MAKE THE PLAYOFFS, JOSH ALLEN WINS MVP
We are sort of cheating here, because my official MVP pick is Joe Burrow. (I believe a 5,000-yard passing season could be in store with Cincy’s passing weapons and an easy schedule.) But if the Bills are to make the playoffs with a new-look roster and one of the toughest schedules in the league, it will be because Allen, who has had phenomenal seasons before, has his best season yet. That would be enough to win MVP.
Carolina Panthers: DERRICK BROWN GOES OVER 1,000 SNAPS
Derrick Brown played the most snaps of any interior defensive lineman in 2023, with 938. Over the past 10 years, only three players along the defensive interior have played more than 1,000 snaps in a single season: J.J. Watt (2014, 2016), Aaron Donald (2021) and DeForest Buckner (2016). Brown has the versatility to become the fourth player to do so as perhaps one of Carolina’s few defensive bright spots.
Chicago Bears: PLAYOFFS, BABY
Based on projected win totals for the team this coming season, the Bears have the third-easiest schedule in the NFL. Their defense was a top-15 unit in multiple categories last season (expected points added per play, coverage grade, interceptions) and could be even better this year. Throw in the fact that they are adding Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze to aid their offensive woes, and Chicago is poised to make the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
Cincinnati Bengals: TEAM ACHIEVES THE BEST RECORD IN THE NFL
With quarterback Joe Burrow getting hurt and missing time last season, the Bengals' 2023 win-loss record was disappointing. But there is good that came from it. Because they finished fourth in the division, they now have a fourth-place team's schedule when it comes to opponents outside of their division. According to the win percentage from last year, the Bengals have the sixth-easiest schedule in the league. They already had the talent to be a double-digit-win team, even with a tough schedule. Now the NFL has given them an easier one. Fourteen wins as the top seed in the AFC is an achievable ceiling.
Cleveland Browns: DEFENSE BOASTS THE BEST CORNERBACK ROOM IN THE NFL
Denzel Ward, Martin Emerson and Greg Newsome make for a very talented cornerback trio, and that group could take the step into the top spot as the best cornerback room in the NFL in 2024. Cleveland’s cornerbacks earned a 76.6 coverage grade last season, which was good for 11th. But all three of those players missed some time due to injuries. With health on their side, I can see a dominant year from that group — and the league's highest coverage grade collectively.
Dallas Cowboys: MICAH PARSONS GETS A 20-SACK SEASON
Since 1982, only 12 players have recorded a 20-sack season. Over the past three years, Parsons has finished with 13, 13.5 and 14 sacks. He has the chance in 2024 to take a massive jump and become the 13th player to achieve the incredible feat. Who else but one of the NFL's most dominant pass-rushers?
Denver Broncos: BO NIX EARNS A TOP-15 PFF PASSING GRADE
This might seem like a wild take, but it’s not when you break it down. The Broncos' offensive line recorded the highest team grade in the AFC last year. When he was given a good line at Oregon, Nix put up elite efficiency numbers and PFF passing grades. He also finished this preseason with an 80.4 PFF passing grade. He won't lead the league in big-time throws, but he can play efficiently enough behind that expensive offensive line to surprise some people with how highly he ranks in PFF passing grade at the end of the year.
Detroit Lions: TEAM WINS THE SUPER BOWL
It’s been a long time. The Lions’ franchise won an NFL Championship in 1957. However, they are the only team that has been in the league since the Super Bowl Era that not only does not have a Lombardi Trophy but hasn’t even made it to the big game.
That drought will end this year. The Lions are built for it.
They have spent the past four years crafting the roster to their talent and culture expectations. They have one of the best play-caller-quarterback combos in the league with some of the top passing options at each position, one of the best offensive lines and a defense that is improved and ready to get them over the top.
Green Bay Packers: JORDAN LOVE HAS A 4,500-YARD PASSING SEASON
Making this “Jordan Love 5,000-yard passing season” was tempting because that headline is slick. But that is just so many passing yards, and the Packers may not need him to throw that much for as good as the team could be. Love has one of the most diverse groups of pass catchers in the league — maybe the most diverse. He took a few weeks in 2023 to grow his confidence, which we saw flourish late into the regular season and postseason. If he can hit the ground running to start 2024, he’ll eclipse 4,500 passing yards and perhaps even make a run at 5,000.
Houston Texans: OFFENSE AND DEFENSE FINISH TOP 8 IN SCORING
The Texans finished last season 13th in scoring offense and 11th in scoring defense. This is one of the most well-balanced and talented teams outside of the very obvious Super Bowl contenders. The AFC South is their division to lose, with quarterback C.J. Stroud and a talented wide receiver corps leading the way.
Indianapolis Colts: SHANE STEICHEN IS A COACH OF THE YEAR FINALIST
Laiatu Latu is my pick to win Defensive Rookie of the Year, but that’s not really a bold call, as he has the best odds to do so. But I do believe the Colts could be in for some more hardware for their coaching staff. I was impressed with how head coach Shane Steichen was able to simplify the offense for Anthony Richardson last season to ease him into NFL life by mitigating some of his current weaknesses yet still allowing his strengths to shine before he got hurt.
Richardson, who is once again the youngest starting quarterback in the league, may still be up and down in 2024, so it is hard to say the Colts will be a playoff team. But they should still be very competitive, and Steichen will be a finalist for the award. If they make the playoffs, he could very well win it.
Jacksonville Jaguars: TREVOR LAWRENCE ACHIEVES A 4,500-YARD PASSING SEASON
Lawrence has thrown for just over 4,500 passing yards in each of the past two seasons. In each of his three years in the NFL, his yards per attempt have gone up, and 2024 is now poised to be his most prolific passing season yet. Last year on passes of 20 or more yards, the Jaguars ranked eighth in total attempts (79), eighth in completion percentage (49.4%), fifth in total yards (1,096) and first in big-time throws (31). Throwing deep is what they wanted to do, and now they have Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis to launch it to.
Kansas City Chiefs: GEORGE KARLAFTIS GOES OVER AN 18% PASS-RUSH WIN RATE
Perhaps you're reading this and thinking, “What kind of bold call is that?” We’re talking about the back-to-back Super Bowl champs with the best player in the world at quarterback with a top-tier head coach, play-caller and defensive coordinator. The pickings are slim for how much bolder we can get with this team prediction-wise.
Karlaftis finished last season with 13 sacks, but his pass-rush win rate was relatively low, at 12.2%. We should see a jump in efficiency from him to produce his best year yet, with a pass-rush win rate between 18%-20%.
Las Vegas Raiders: DEFENSE RANKS TOP 5 IN THE LEAGUE
The Raiders’ 2023 defense finished seventh in points per game allowed and ninth in team PFF defensive grade. And they got even better on that side of the ball for 2024, especially with the addition of Christian Wilkins along the defensive line. Cornerback Jack Jones is also in for a big year. Throw in Malcolm Koonce continuing to be an impactful presence on the defensive line (14.8% pass-rush win rate in 2023), and it's a recipe for a sneaky top-five defense in Las Vegas.
Los Angeles Chargers: THE DEFENSE FINISHES TOP 12
The Chargers finished last season with a 72.0 PFF defensive grade, which ranked just 21st in the NFL. They were also 23rd in scoring defense, giving up 23.4 points per game. New defensive coordinator Jesse Minter will have that side of the ball much closer to the top of the league than the bottom. Expect a bounce-back year from safety Derwin James, as well as bigger contributions from linebacker Daiyan Henley, edge defender Tuli Tuipulotu and safety Alohi Gilman.
Los Angeles Rams: TEAM FIELDS A TOP-3 OFFENSE
Is this prediction a bit ambiguous? Yes; it could be true in multiple categories. The Rams fielded a top-10 offense in several categories last season: PFF overall grades, scoring offense and EPA per play, for example.
Matthew Stafford is capable of playing at an elite level (we saw it many times last season), the run game is strong and the Rams will hopefully have Cooper Kupp paired with Puka Nacua for even more games this year. The defense may be another story, but stopping the Rams’ offense every week is going to be one of the more difficult challenges in the league.
Miami Dolphins: JEVON HOLLAND LEADS ALL SAFETIES IN INTERCEPTIONS
Holland has finished with interception totals of two, three and one in the past three seasons. But I’ll go out on a limb and say he leads all safeties in interceptions this season. He has posted near-elite PFF coverage grades in two of the past three years. His play speed and ability to close on passes are so good, and with another year of expertise under his belt, he can take a huge leap in the takeaway category.
Minnesota Vikings: SAM DARNOLD ISN’T BAD
Is this a prediction? Whatever, I’m rolling with it. I said this offseason that I believe Darnold would start for at least four to six games for the Vikings this year right out of the gate. But with J.J. McCarthy now out for the year, it’s Sam’s Show. This is a good offense in Minnesota with a good offensive line, an experienced play-caller and excellent balance between pass and run game options. I think Darnold can have the best year of his career with around 3,500 passing yards and more than 20 touchdowns while keeping his interceptions below 15.
New England Patriots: JA'LYNN POLK, JAVON BAKER COMBINE FOR 1,500 RECEIVING YARDS
The Patriots are going to lean heavily on their rookie class this year. Including Drake Maye at quarterback, they could have five rookie starters on offense. Two of those could be wide receivers Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker.
For those who don’t think Baker and Polk combining for 1,500 receiving yards is too bold of a call, that would mean they’re likely both in the top eight in receiving yards for rookies this season. Perhaps the Patriots don’t pass the ball enough for that to be a reality, but Maye has the arm talent and Polk and Baker will be ready for any challenge or target volume every week.
New Orleans Saints: CAM JORDAN GETS A 10-SACK SEASON
Jordan has been an ironman throughout his NFL career. He has played in every single game of his 13 years in the NFL and looks to be a starter again now at 35 years old. However, his PFF pass-rush grades have steadily declined over the past three seasons. But though he notched a career-low 3.5 sacks in 2023, he did bounce back to a double-digit pass-rush win percentage of 11.4%, his highest since 2020. This is a true bold call here, but I’ll say the long-time NFL legend has another double-digit sack season in him.
New York Giants: MALIK NABERS BREAKS ODELL BECKHAM JR.’S ROOKIE RECORD
Rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers is in for a massive target share this upcoming season. Though it's difficult to have much faith in who might be throwing Nabers the football, volume is king. Nabers’ stat line could look similar to that of Odell Beckham’s 1,300 receiving yards, 12 receiving touchdowns and 91 catches when he won the award with the Giants in 2014. Nabers might not have the touchdowns, but I’ll say he gets similar yards with as much as I think the Giants will be throwing the football this season.
New York Jets: SAUCE GARDNER WINS DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Gardner is considered by many — myself included — to be the best cornerback in football. He has recorded an elite coverage grade (above 90.0) in each of his first two seasons. This year, he will face Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle twice, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. It’s a gauntlet, and if Gardner can continue to look elite against those wide receivers, he should get Defensive Player of the Year votes.
Philadelphia Eagles: SAQUON BARKLEY LEADS THE LEAGUE IN RUSHING
Newly acquired running back Saquon Barkley‘s current career high for rushing yards in a single season is 1,312, which we saw him amass back in 2022. Now playing behind the Eagles' offensive line, I not only expect him to have his best season yet but I am predicting he will lead the league in rushing. Christian McCaffrey led the league in 2023 with 1,459, which is realistic for Barkley to eclipse if he can stay healthy. Philadelphia’s offensive line has earned PFF overall grades above 80.0 in each of the past three seasons.
Pittsburgh Steelers: T.J. WATT GETS 18 SACKS TO TIE J.J. WATT
After finishing the 2023 season with 19 sacks, T.J. Watt is closing in on a major career milestone. He is just 3.5 sacks away from 100 career sacks and 18 sacks away from tying his brother. In the past two seasons of Watt being fully healthy, he racked up 22.5 and 19 sacks, respectively. Predicting that many sacks is obviously very difficult and an extremely lofty goal, but why not make the bold bet for him to do it again and command life-long bragging rights at every family reunion?
San Francisco 49ers: TEAM FINISHES TOP 5 IN SCORING DEFENSE
Like the Chiefs, one can be only so bold with a team as talented and accomplished as the 49ers. Even predicting them to win the Super Bowl wouldn’t be that bold at this point. Steve Wilks was this team’s defensive coordinator last season and was dismissed after losing the Super Bowl. Nick Sorensen, who has been in the building for the past two years, is the new man in charge of the defense. The Niners have finished with a top-five scoring defense every year since 2021. I’ll say that remains, even with a new defensive coordinator.
Seattle Seahawks: DEVON WITHERSPOON EARNS THE HIGHEST COVERAGE GRADE IN THE NFL AMONG CBs
Then-Seahawks rookie cornerback Devon Witherspoon recorded a 79.7 PFF coverage grade in 2023. That was good for 17th best at the position. This year, he will take his game to an elite level. He earned an elite 92.5 PFF coverage grade in his final year at Illinois with just a 29.0% open-target percentage. With a handful of great cornerbacks in the league, this would be quite the achievement. But Witherspoon has the talent and mentality to ascend to a true shutdown cornerback.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TEAM WINS THE NFC SOUTH (AGAIN)
It feels odd to say that Tampa Bay, which is returning most of its players and coaches who won the division the previous year (three in a row), winning the division again is a bold take. But according to preseason predictions, it is. The Falcons are minus money to win the division thanks to all their offseason additions. They have a great case, but not enough credit is being given to the Buccaneers and their continuity in their 2024 outlook. The team's over/under win total is 7.5, while the Falcons are listed at 9.5. It should be closer than a two-game gap.
Tennessee Titans: OFFENSIVE LINE BECOMES A TOP-15 UNIT
The Titans’ 2023 offensive line ranked 22nd in the league in team PFF grade and 27th in the league in team PFF pass-blocking grade. With the additions of Lloyd Cushenberry (free agency) at center and JC Latham at left tackle (draft), the talent got a boost this offseason. The coaching staff did, too, as long-time offensive line coach Bill Callahan came on staff when his son, Brian, was hired as the head coach. Bill had been the offensive line coach for the Browns since 2020, making them one of the best units in the league. Adding Callahan was huge for this young Titans offensive line.
Washington Commanders: TEAM FINISHES SECOND IN DIVISION
The Commanders are my “surprise team” for the 2024 season. They're not necessarily going to make the playoffs, but I am a big Dan Quinn believer. I like that they turned over their roster and Quinn was able to have the free agency flexibility to get the guys he wanted in the building. On top of that, Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels is an upgrade at quarterback. It’s not a perfect roster, but the Commanders will give the Cowboys a run for their money as the second-best team in the division.
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