NFL Week 4: Best Totals Bets based on Adjusted Score

· BET Buccaneers U 22.5 points at Chiefs (-106 FanDuel): Tampa Bay has an average adjusted score of 18.3 points, good for 21st in the NFL. 

· BET Bills-Ravens O 52 total points (-110 BetMGM): Buffalo ranks 1st with 32.0 adjusted points per game, while the Ravens rank 3rd (29.8). 

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Estimated reading time: 3 mins

The goal in this space is to use Adjusted Scores to profitably bet game totals and team totals by finding teams that might be overvalued or undervalued because of randomness that we don’t expect to be stable week-to-week. Now with three weeks of data, we can start to move past some of the small sample sizes and get a better feel of each team's offense vs. its opposing defense.

BET: Cleveland Browns @ Atlanta Falcons Over 49.5 (-110 BetMGM)

· No Fluky Production from these Offenses: The Browns have the fourth-ranked offense using average adjusted scores at 29.7 adjusted points per game. The Falcons quietly have the No. 8 offense, averaging 26.8 adjusted points per game. 

· Neither Defense is Playing Well: The Browns rank 18th in defensive EPA/play and currently have one of the worst rush defenses in the NFL. The Falcons rank 28th in defensive EPA/play and have issues stopping both the pass and run games. With high-end offenses and susceptible defenses, points could be scored frequently in this game.

BET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 22.5 @ Kansas City Chiefs (-106 FanDuel)

· Bucs adjusted score ranks 21st in the NFL: Because of a mix of injuries, scheme and poor play from those who have been on the field, Tampa Bay’s offense has had an average adjusted score of 18.3 points, good for 21st in the NFL. 

· Tampa 24th in explosive play rate: The quickest path to putting up more than 22 points in a game is to hit on explosive plays that either score a touchdown or lead to a touchdown. The Buccaneers offense has only scored three touchdowns the whole year and ranks 24th in explosive play rate, as seen in the graph above.

· K.C. defense 11th in EPA/Play: The Chiefs are 10th against the pass, 17th against the run and 11th overall in EPA/Play. Although the Buccaneers have faced more talented defenses in the Cowboys, Saints and Packers, the Chiefs defense ranks similarly after three weeks of play.

BET: Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens Over 52 (-110 BetMGM)

· Two Top-5 Offenses in the NFL: Using average adjusted scores, the Bills rank 1st with 32.0 adjusted points per game, while the Ravens rank 3rd (behind the Philadelphia Eagles) with 29.8. 

· Pass Rates Over Expected: As seen in the graph above, the Bills and Ravens are both passing at rates much more frequently than they’re expected to based on game factors (down, distance, yard-line, score differential, etc.). With both offenses being top-5 in yards per attempt passing, this could lead to a lot of points.

· Baltimore susceptible to allowing big plays: The Ravens defense is still finding its footing with first year defensive coordinator Mike MacDonald and multiple new pieces in the secondary. Baltimore has given up 34 plays over 10 yards — fourth-most in the NFL. With the NFL's highest explosive play rate, the Bills offense is a bad matchup for the Ravens defense.

Tej's totals bets went 0-3 in Week 2 and are now 2-4 on the season (-2.3 units).