Teams with the highest probabilities of earning the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft

We’re less than a month away from Week 1 of the 2020 NFL regular season, and while a bevy of college football players won't play this fall, it’s never too early to think about next year’s NFL draft. There are a number of teams this year that are longshots to even compete for the newly expanded playoffs, so while our simulations usually look at things like the probability of making and winning the Super Bowl, we can also look at the likelihood that each team will “earn” the No. 1 overall pick.

There have been plenty of roster moves since the last time we talked about our simulations, and betting markets have seen a decent amount of movement as a result. So, we’ve rerun the numbers and, while there are some predictable names on the list of teams vying for the number-one pick, there are some surprising ones, as well.

[Editor's Note: PFF's advanced statistics and player grades are powered by AWS machine learning capabilities.]

Jacksonville Jaguars: 10.9%

The Jaguars are a team with a decent amount of upside. Gardner Minshew was the most valuable rookie in the NFL a season ago, C.J. Henderson and Laviska Shenault are high-potential rookies at high-leverage positions, and the Jaguars' schedule is only the 18th-toughest when viewed through the lens of PFF ELO. All of that said, Doug Marrone is likely out of the door if he struggles early, and Jay Gruden has faltered the past few years when measured by our playcaller rankings, meaning the downside is basically unlimited.

Carolina Panthers: 7.6%