Best, worst quarterback-wide receiver pairings by catchable target rate in 2023

• Khalil Shakir could play a big role in Buffalo: Quarterback Josh Allen and Shakir were an efficient partnership in 2023 and could continue to grow in 2024.

• Bryce Young and Jonathan Mingo need to improve: The Young-Mingo connection didn’t yield many positive returns in 2023.

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Estimated Reading Time: 7 minutes

Targets in the NFL aren’t born equally. Players can generate separation for themselves through speed, shiftiness and raw power — getting open for quarterbacks to hit them in their stride is an art form. But, sometimes, it takes more, such as excellent ball placement by a quarterback. Targets can be called “targets” despite having no hope of getting to the receiver. Connections can be vital.

Here are the 10 best and worst catchable target rate pairings in the NFL from the 2023 season.

10 Highest Catchable Target Rates

1. Josh Allen and Khalil Shakir — Buffalo Bills

Shakir didn’t become a regular feature in the Buffalo Bills‘ offense until later in the 2023 season, making a far greater contribution to the passing attack in Year 2. Still, his impact lessened the fact that Stefon Diggs struggled down the stretch. From Week 7 onward, Shakir had 10 games with multiple receptions, forming a reliable connection with Allen, and earned a 76.6 PFF grade.

Despite a smaller sample size, the Allen-to-Shakir connection was the most accurate in the NFL, as 91.1% of his targets were deemed catchable (49) with an average depth of target of just 7.4 yards. Shakir’s production mostly came from the slot, too, and his 7.5 yards after the catch per reception ranked top five among all slot receivers.

2. Geno Smith and Jaxon Smith-Njigba — Seattle Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks drafted Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, knowing he would contribute even in a loaded wide receiver room alongside D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Smith-Njigba finished third on the team in yards (628), receptions (63) and touchdowns (five) but was an efficient underneath option for Geno Smith, and 85.1% of his targets were deemed catchable — the second most in the NFL.

Like Shakir with the Bills, Smith-Njigba spent most of his time as the Seahawks' slot receiver, and his average target depth of 6.4 yards was the fourth lowest of all qualified receivers in 2023. He flashed his ability to create after the catch all the same, as his 5.9 yards after the catch per reception placed him 12th in the NFL.

Though Geno Smith was one of the best deep passers in the NFL. with a 95.6 deep passing grade, having an effective underneath option in Smith-Njigba helped stretch the offense horizontally as well as vertically.

3. Patrick Mahomes and Rashee Rice — Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes‘ ability to prop up offenses and carry them to Super Bowls is uncanny, but there’s something to be said for the impact that Rashee Rice had on the Chiefs’ offense in 2023, with the rookie earning an 84.9 PFF overall grade and catching eight touchdowns. Mahomes was at his best, earning a 90.5 PFF overall grade throughout the season, and the connection he formed with Rice was pivotal.

Rice caught 84.3% of his catchable targets with an average target depth of 5.0 yards, the lowest in the NFL. The former second-round pick produced an average of 2.21 yards per route run — a top-15 mark among all receivers — while splitting his time between the slot and the outside.

4. Jared Goff and Kalif Raymond — Detroit Lions

Kalif Raymond joined the Detroit Lions in the summer of 2021, the same year quarterback Jared Goff was traded to the team, and the two have formed an efficient partnership over the past three seasons. Raymond has caught 130 passes and five touchdowns over that span. His catches have decreased each year in Detroit, but he is still a cog in one of the best offenses in the NFL, earning a 75.4 PFF overall grade in 2023 — his best output since 2019.

Raymond split his time evenly between being a slot option and a deep boundary threat for the Lions, but his 8.8-yard average target depth and 6.1 yards after the catch per reception tell the story of a receiver perfectly molded into Ben Johnson’s offense. Raymond caught 83.7% of his catchable targets last year, the fourth-best rate in the NFL.

5. Lamar Jackson and Nelson Agholor — Baltimore Ravens

Agholor was brought in as a depth piece for the Ravens in the 2023 offseason and, despite starting just three games, managed to become a vital part of the offense. The former Eagles first-round pick caught 38 passes for 432 yards and five touchdowns and earned a 61.6 PFF overall grade on the season. Lamar Jackson’s improvements as a pocket passer led to his second MVP award, as well as an 83.0 PFF passing grade — the highest of his career — and his connection with Agholor helped nurture that.

The veteran receiver caught 83.0% of his catchable targets from Jackson, becoming a valuable slot option for the Ravens before signing another one-year extension with the team in the offseason.

10 Lowest Catchable Target Rates

1. Tua Tagovailoa and Cedrick Wilson — Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins' offense was one of the best in the NFL last season, and Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL with an 88.6 passing grade, but his connection with Cedrick Wilson never fully materialized. Wilson signed with the Dolphins in 2022 after carving out a role for himself with the Cowboys in 2021, but he caught just 34 passes in two seasons.

Despite Tagovailoa’s general accuracy being excellent — he completed 68.2% of his passes in 2023 — he and Wilson struggled to get on the same page, with only 55.6% of his passes to Wilson being deemed catchable. Wilson’s 11.7-yard average target depth wasn’t incredibly high, either.

2. Will Levis and DeAndre Hopkins — Tennessee Titans

After two down years in Arizona, DeAndre Hopkins responded with a 1,000-yard receiving season in his first season with the Tennessee Titans. The former All-Pro receiver racked up 75 catches for 1,057 yards and seven touchdowns while earning an 81.0 PFF overall grade. However, his connection with rookie quarterback Will Levis wasn’t based on efficiency. Levis wanted to rip the ball downfield and let his dominant receiver go to work.

Hopkins's 14.8-yard average target depth was the highest of his career, and his 39 targets of 20-plus yards were the second most in the NFL. It should then come as no surprise that just 58.6% of Levis’ passes to Hopkins were deemed catchable. Levis flashed his arm consistently, but the former second-round pick still has to improve upon his accuracy.

3. Bryce Young and Jonathan Mingo — Carolina Panthers

Things were bleak in Carolina in 2023. The Panthers finished with a 2-15 record, their worst since 2010, while first-overall pick Bryce Young earned a 52.6 PFF passing grade in his rookie season. Admittedly, the surroundings did not aid Young in the slightest, with his top receiving option proving to be Adam Thielen. The Panthers drafted Jonathan Mingo in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft to help shore up the receiving room, but his connection with Young struggled to make a dent.

Just 60.8% of Mingo’s targets were catchable, and even then, he struggled with drops and using his big frame in contested-catch situations. The Panthers will hope the connection can improve in Year 2.

4. Jordan Love and Christian Watson — Green Bay Packers

Jordan Love exploded in the second half of 2023, earning a 90.6 PFF overall grade from Week 9 onward and showing all of the traits to be one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. However, Love’s connection with Christian Watson was something that didn’t fully jell. Watson earned a 69.1 PFF overall grade in nine games in 2023, catching 28 passes for 422 yards and five touchdowns, but struggled with injuries.

Watson had a 16.7-yard average target depth, the sixth-highest mark among all NFL receivers, and became the resident deep threat for Love. However, only 60.7% of his targets were catchable and Love generated just a 71.4 passer rating when targeting Watson.

5. Lamar Jackson and Odell Beckham Jr. — Baltimore Ravens

After missing the entirety of the 2022 NFL season, Odell Beckham Jr. suited up for the Baltimore Ravens in 2023 and made a suitable impact, earning a 75.4 PFF overall grade — his highest since his final season with the Giants in 2018. Beckham caught 39 passes for 599 yards and three touchdowns while helping the Ravens finish as the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Despite the impact, the Jackson and Beckham connection wasn’t always on the same page. Beckham had the highest average target depth of his career (15.0 yards), and just 61.2% of his targets were catchable.