The Baltimore Ravens and blown leads: A systemic concern or noise?

• Ravens cough up another double-digit advantage in Week 10: Baltimore fell 33-31 to the Cleveland Browns after leading 31-17 in the fourth quarter.

• A systemic issue? The Ravens have now surrendered a double-digit lead in a loss six times since the start of the 2022 season.

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Estimated Reading Time: 5 minutes

The Baltimore Ravens‘ 33-31 defeat to the Cleveland Browns in Week 10 marked the sixth time since the start of the 2022 season that they surrendered a double-digit lead in a loss.

Is the recurring issue the fault of the offense or the defense? How much blame does Lamar Jackson deserve? Here, we’ll dig into the numbers on both sides of the ball and determine whether this is a pattern or just noise.

Offense

The Ravens have run 301 offensive snaps with a lead of 10 or more points since the start of the 2022 regular season, the ninth most of any NFL team in the span. On those plays, their -0.066 expected points added per play figure ranks 17th and their 38.5% positive EPA snap rate places just 20th.

Baltimore's 18 non-pre-snap offensive penalties on those plays are the most in the NFL, and crucially, it’s also the highest rate in the league — coming out to one penalty every 16.7 plays.

Snaps Per Offensive Penalty With 10-Plus-Point Lead

Lamar Jackson has still been productive, earning a 78.4 PFF passing grade with a 10-plus-point lead to rank eighth among the 31 quarterbacks with 30 such dropbacks. He has gone 74-of-108 for 905 yards with six touchdowns and three interceptions. His 7.5% big-time throw rate is the best among all quarterbacks in such situations, but his 4.3% turnover-worthy play rate is also the seventh worst.

Turnovers and penalties drag the Ravens' efficiency stats down, but that speaks to the fact that they are hurting themselves and stalling on drives when they should be putting teams away.

With a double-digit lead, Gus Edwards paces the team with 42 carries and Lamar Jackson comes in second, at 36. When looking at all plays over the past two seasons, excluding when Jackson got hurt in the second half of the 2022 season, Jackson jumps to the top of the team with 202 carries.

Sample size plays a part here, but as the Ravens look to close out games, perhaps they should be leaning more on Jackson’s ability as a runner, especially considering that they face eight or more box defenders on just 24.9% of their snaps with a double-digit lead, the eighth-lowest rate in the league.

Defense

No defense has been on the field more with a double-digit lead since the start of the 2022 season than the Baltimore Ravens (649 snaps). Their 0.041 EPA allowed per play figure ranks 22nd in that span, and their 46.5% positive EPA snap rate allowed ranks 19th.

Penalties are an issue, with the unit garnering 25 — the third most in the league. However, the Ravens rank in the middle of the pack in defensive penalty rate, getting a call every 25.9 snaps (17th-highest rate). They miss a tackle once every 8.4 snaps, the 15th-highest rate, but rank just 21st with a defensive stop once every 3.4 defensive snaps.

Overall, Baltimore hasn't had any weak links in coverage with 10-plus-point leads. All six defensive backs to play 190 or more coverage snaps in those situations have earned 60.0-plus PFF coverage grades, although anecdotally, one can point to coverage as the main reason for the team's blown lead against the Miami Dolphins at the start of the 2022 season.

Odafe Oweh owns the edge group's highest PFF pass-rush grade in double-digit-lead scenarios, but his 68.1 mark ranks just 41st among 84 NFL edge defenders to play 100 or more snaps. The Ravens fare better on the interior, with Michael Pierce, Justin Madubuike, Calais Campbell and Broderick Washington all beating Oweh in PFF pass-rush grade. Still, none crack the top 10 on the defensive interior league-wide. The team's 35.9% pressure rate with a double-digit lead ranks tied for 16th in the league, while its 7.6% sack rate ranks 17th.

The Ravens lack an elite pass-rusher, and have for some time, instead relying on scheming up pressure — something they have done very well under defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. While the Cleveland Browns can rely on Myles Garrett and the Dallas Cowboys can lean on Micah Parsons — the two highest-graded pass-rushing edge defenders with double-digit leads — the Ravens are without a true closer off the edge late in games.

The Ravens have been on offense for 348 fewer snaps than on defense with a 10-plus-point lead. That they have been on defense for longer is not itself a concern, but of the 10 teams with the most defensive snaps while holding a double-digit lead, Baltimore is the lone squad with a differential above 200. That speaks to their need to be more efficient on both sides of the ball.

In the five blown double-digit leads with Jackson at quarterback, the Ravens have been on offense for just 67 snaps while well ahead, compared to 139 on defense.

The Noise

Six games might seem like a lot, but it’s still a small sample size. It also ignores the 16 games since the start of the 2022 season where the Ravens built a double-digit lead and went on to win. With a lead of 10 or more points at any point in games, the Ravens have a 72.7% winning percentage over the past two seasons.

You can point to all three of their losses this season and find a couple of plays where if they simply execute better, they probably win. Drops proved costly in the loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, and an unfathomable chain of blunders against the Indianapolis Colts sealed Baltimore's fate.

The reality is that when a team loses games in this fashion, questions are going to be asked. But at this point, it’s likely more noise than anything else. It’s on the Ravens' coaching staff to work to be more efficient on both sides of the ball and prevent this from becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy for the team.

A team can only blow a lead if it builds one, and the Ravens have been very good at building leads with Lamar Jackson at quarterback.