• Can the Chargers hold off a Houston stampede?: Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt vs. Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. is a top-tier tackle-edge battle.
• Josh Allen has a tall task against Denver's Cover 3: The Broncos have been one of the NFL's best defenses when turning to the look, as they often do.
• 2025 NFL Draft season is here: Try PFF's best-in-class Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2025's top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.
Estimated Reading Time: 8 minutes
While the outcome of every football game is influenced by the 22 players on each team’s side, the niche, micro-level battles add an extra layer of nuance. That includes players or units battling head-to-head or even defensive coaches trying to outscheme the opposing quarterback.
Week 18’s emphasis on the Jets’ outside-zone rushing game (seven carries for 41 yards and a 42.9% success rate) and Spencer Rattler throwing past the sticks (7-for-20, two turnover-worthy plays, 44.2 PFF passing grade) helped determine who won in the last week of the regular season. Now, the stakes are even higher as the first week of the postseason gets underway.
Whether strength against strength, weakness against weakness or simply an individual war of great consequence, here is one matchup to pay close attention to in all six wild-card battles.
Chargers pass-blocking vs. Texans edge rushers
If you want to see iron sharpening iron, look no further than the trenches when the Chargers have the ball. The first wild-card game pits an elite tackle duo against arguably the NFL’s best edge-rushing tandem.
Jim Harbaugh’s emphasis on protecting Justin Herbert has already paid off in Year 1. This year, Chargers tackles combined to generate an 87.7 PFF pass-blocking grade, the best in the NFL. Starters Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt combined to give up only nine sacks and 42 pressures on 1,149 pass-blocking snaps.
On the other side of the line of scrimmage will be a duo looking to dominate the game in Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. The two led Houston’s edge rushers to rank second in pass-rush win rate (29.6%), fifth in total pressures generated (162) and sixth in PFF pass-rush grade (75.1).
Los Angeles’ ability to protect Herbert will be key in a game featuring two very strong defenses. If Hunter and Anderson can affect Herbert, that could favor Houston — but if not, it could be a long day for the Texans.
Derrick Henry vs. Steelers’ heavy boxes
Without Zay Flowers, the Ravens offense will likely look to lean on its run game against the Steelers. But when Pittsburgh may want to think twice about loading the box against Derrick Henry.
When these two bitter rivals last met in Week 16, Pittsburgh put eight or more defenders in the box on 16 snaps, but Henry carried the ball nine times for 42 yards, a 78.7 PFF rushing grade and two explosive runs. Granted, bad tackling by the Steelers didn’t help, but it’s clear that defensive coordinator Teryl Austin’s attempts to load up against Henry weren’t effective.
However, Henry performed much worse against heavy boxes in their first duel in Week 11, gaining only 3 yards on six carries while securing a 64.5 PFF rushing grade. The fact that Henry even got to 3 yards is pretty unbelievable, considering that he gained 11 yards after contact.
Pittsburgh didn’t load the box often against the Ravens, doing so 25.8% of the time in Week 16 and 31.5% in Week 11 — although those figures were higher than the team’s season-long 21.9% heavy box rate. If the Steelers put eight or more defenders in the box, they’ll need to make sure they can actually stuff Henry, or else they’re in for a long evening.
Highest-Graded Running Backs vs. 8-Plus Box Defenders (Min. 25 Snaps)
Josh Allen vs. Broncos’ Cover 3
It’s hard to ask for much more as a football fan than an MVP candidate facing off against one of the league’s stingiest defenses. That’s exactly what we’ll be treated to when Allen takes on Denver to start Sunday’s action, with Cover 3 the focus.
The Broncos have run Cover 3 25.1% of the time this year, and it’s worked well. On those looks, Denver is first in success rate allowed, fifth in EPA allowed per play and first in yards per play allowed.
Meanwhile, Allen has been strong with three deep defenders. His 80.0 PFF passing grade ranks eighth among qualifying quarterbacks, although his 95.8 passer rating is 16th. It’s also pertinent to mention that Allen’s 92.3 PFF rushing grade against Cover 3 is the highest in the NFL, regardless of position.
Allen has multiple means of defeating an elite Broncos defense, including beating the blitz with quick throws and scrambling. If Denver wants to knock off one of the AFC’s best teams, it must avoid hole shots and limit Allen’s effectiveness against Cover 3.
Josh Jacobs on runs between the tackles vs. Eagles
Packers-Eagles is a highly enjoyable matchup for several reasons, especially watching Matt LaFleur attempt to navigate one of the NFL’s elite defenses. How well Jacobs can get going between the A and B gaps will be extremely telling.
Green Bay has utilized a diverse run game all year, but LaFleur’s intentions of hitting opponents up the middle and generally downhill have remained the focus. That makes sense given Jacobs’ profile: his 90.5 PFF rushing grade on runs between the tackles is second among qualifiers. Jacobs is also top seven in yards after contact per attempt (3.5), explosive runs (21) and missed tackles forced (35).
But the middle of Philadelphia’s defense has been strong for most of the year. Against those exact run types, the Eagles are sixth in EPA allowed per play, 15th in success rate allowed, T-13th in yards allowed per carry and T-13th in first downs allowed. More specifically, Cooper DeJean is the NFL’s second-highest-graded run defender (91.6) against runs between the tackles, while Nakobe Dean (86.5) is also top 20.
When these teams played all the way back in Week 1, Jacobs ran the ball nine times for 50 yards between the tackles, accumulating a 74.5 PFF rushing grade to go along with two first downs and an explosive run. Granted, that was likely a worse version of Philly’s defense, one that didn’t play DeJean at the time. Will Jacobs find similar success to help offset the loss of Christian Watson, or will the Packers have to try to beat a stingy Eagles defense through the air?
Baker Mayfield vs. Commanders’ Cover 1
Much of the spotlight in this Week 1 rematch will be if Jayden Daniels performs better against the Buccaneers and their regular blitzes. But how well Mayfield performs against a frequent Commanders coverage could make a huge impact.
Mayfield has enjoyed another strong season, ranking seventh among qualifiers with an 82.4 PFF passing grade and tied for sixth with a 78.7% adjusted completion percentage. However, he’s had issues against Cover 1, where his 65.9 PFF passing grade slots 28th out of 45 qualifiers. Only 54.1% of Mayfield’s Cover 1 attempts have been charted as accurate (25th), while 22% have been catchable inaccurate (14th).
It may not bode great that the Commanders have utilized Cover 1 on 20% of their snaps, their second-highest rate of coverage behind Cover 3. When trade deadline pickup Marshon Lattimore was healthy in Weeks 15-16, the frequency of Cover 1 stayed about the same, but the coverage was much better. In those two weeks, Washington recorded an 81.2 PFF coverage grade when running Cover 1, with one of those games coming against the vaunted Eagles. Compare that to a season-long 59.2 PFF coverage grade when deploying the man look.
On paper, Tampa Bay’s offense should have a major advantage in this game against a Commanders defense that’s struggled for most of the year. But if Quinn isolates Lattimore on Mike Evans — a true vintage, hate-filled receiver-corner rivalry — then he could find ways to slow down Mayfield & Co.
Matthew Stafford under pressure vs. Vikings
When the Rams pulled off a stunning upset over the Vikings in Week 8, Stafford was a significant reason why, and L.A. will need an encore to do it again.
Even if not as elite as the year before, Stafford has been solid during his age-36 season, earning a 72.4 PFF passing grade. Yet, a caveat is that the Super Bowl champion has been anemic under pressure. Stafford’s 29.4 overall and 29.6 PFF passing grades are the lowest in the league among qualifiers under pressure. Meanwhile, when kept clean, Stafford is top -six in both overall (92.0) and passing (92.8) grades.
While the Vikings blitz more than any defense in the league, their pressure numbers haven’t been as fantastic as expected. Minnesota sits 11th in team pressure rate, 17th in quarterback hurry percentage and 32nd in throwaway rate. The only starting Vikings defensive lineman with an 11.0% pass-rush win rate or better is Jonathan Greenard (15.3%).
During their Thursday Night Football clash, Stafford was pressured on only 23.5% of attempts, completing 6-of-8 passes for 47 yards, one big-time throw, one turnover-worthy play and a 62.3 overall PFF grade. If the Rams can protect Stafford that well yet again, they can definitely find themselves in a position to win. But if Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel — who only mustered one pressure on 19 pass-rushing snaps earlier against the Rams — can wreak havoc, it will likely be tough sledding for LA’s potent offense.
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