• Dan Quinn looks like the Coach of the Year frontrunner: Quinn has molded the Commanders into a playoff team despite a slew of talent questions on both sides of the ball.
• Sean McDermott keeps churning: The 9-2 Bills appear to be one of the more well-rounded teams in football, even with slightly worse play from quarterback Josh Allen.
• Unlock your edge with a PFF+ subscription: Get full access to all our in-season fantasy tools, including weekly rankings, WR/CB matchup charts, weekly projections, the Start-Sit Optimizer and more. Sign up now!
Estimated Reading Time: 10 minutes
While NFL teams can benefit from major talent upgrades in the offseason, coaching ultimately dictates team performance — specifically, the work of the head coach. With Week 12 of the 2024 NFL season rapidly approaching, certain leaders have dramatically elevated their teams — even to heights rarely, if ever, seen — while others have failed to capitalize on skilled rosters.
Below is a ranking of the head coaches who have best maximized their opportunities for success this season, especially relative to expectation — sorry, Andy Reid and Dan Campbell; your teams were expected to be elite. In a sense, you could think of this as a rough ranking of the NFL’s Coach of the Year candidates. Either way, these eight coaches deserve to be lauded for admirable work.
Dan Quinn, Washington Commanders
Simply put, Washington has been one of the best storylines in the NFL this season. Despite entering 2024 with a new head coach, a new quarterback and a team littered with questions on both sides of the ball, the Commanders sit at 7-4 with an 87% chance to make the playoffs. All that success has arrived despite being projected for only 6.5 wins.
In his first year as a head coach since 2018, Quinn has been a seamless fit in the DMV. He’s fueled the rise of rookie Jayden Daniels as one of the better quarterbacks in football, with the No. 2 overall pick already ranking third in PFF overall grade and standing first in line to win Offensive Rookie of the Year. The team’s offense has hummed all year under Kliff Kingsbury, placing second in EPA per play, even though the unit has only one well-established star (Terry McLaurin).
Washington’s defense has lagged a bit, slotting 26th in EPA per play. Even then, Quinn has squeezed everything he can out of a unit that isn’t the most impressive on paper. Dorance Armstrong has enjoyed a career season with a 78.9 PFF pass-rushing grade; Jeremy Chinn has bounced back well with a 68.9 PFF overall grade; and rookie Mike Sainristil has emerged with a 68.0 PFF overall grade.
Questions lingered after Washington tapped Quinn to replace Ron Rivera, with chatter continuing that the team hadn’t selected a flashy, up-and-coming option such as Ben Johnson or Mike Macdonald. But through the better part of Quinn’s first year, those anxieties have been completely quieted. Unless Washington were to somehow miss the postseason at this stage, Quinn feels like the coach who has most elevated his baseline team.
Kevin O’Connell, Minnesota Vikings
Entering 2024, the Vikings were viewed as a weak link in possibly the NFL's most formidable division. But instead of acquiescing to expectations — projected for only 6.5 wins — Minnesota is on track to reach the postseason. That’s almost entirely due to O’Connell’s shrewd coaching.
The Vikings’ quarterback room was considered one of the least impressive entering the season, and that was only augmented when rookie first-rounder J.J. McCarthy was ruled out for the year in August. But Sam Darnold has enjoyed a career resurgence in Minnesota, posting career-high marks in both overall (78.9) and passing (76.8) grades to rank as an above-average quarterback in 2024. The Vikings have also overcome injuries to stars T.J. Hockenson and Christian Darrisaw. Collectively, the team’s offensive cohesion seems mostly due to O’Connell’s play-calling acumen and ability to make players feel comfortable.
Meanwhile, Minnesota’s defense has drastically improved since last season, ranking first in EPA per play after finishing 20th last season. It does appear that most praise is in order for Brian Flores, but O’Connell also deserves credit for having input in the key additions of Jonathan Greenard, Blake Cashman and Andrew Van Ginkel — all of whom have elevated a unit with other weaknesses.
Although the Vikings’ play has waned a bit in the past few weeks — with the team dropping two straight games and almost falling to the lowly Jaguars in Week 10 — this team has still performed significantly better than most thought, even if not an outright powerhouse.
Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers
Widely regarded as one of the NFL's best head coaches, Tomlin has the unenviable task of resetting his own standards of excellence to win Coach of the Year. But that’s precisely what the Steelers’ head man has done in 2024, propelling Pittsburgh from what seemed to be an initially fringe playoff team to a potential contender.
Tomlin’s most crucial decision was benching Justin Fields for Russell Wilson in Week 7. While the move was initially met with skepticism, few are second-guessing it now. Since then, Pittsburgh ranks 10th in overall EPA per play and Wilson has exploited defenses better than Fields. Altogether, Pittsburgh’s offense has been much better than anticipated in Arthur Smith’s first year — courtesy of a breakout rookie season from Zach Frazier and a career-best year from Najee Harris.
The Steelers' defense has been stout as usual, even improving from 10th to seventh in EPA allowed per play. Cameron Heyward has played at an All-Pro level after a down 2023, leading all interior defenders with a 90.5 PFF overall grade; DeShon Elliott has provided splashes in the run game and tackling after being signed as a free agent; and Nick Herbig (89.2 PFF pass-rushing grade) has filled in nicely when Alex Highsmith has been injured.
The jury may still be out on whether Pittsburgh can compete for the AFC crown, but the team has already put together a stack of impressive wins over the Ravens, Falcons, Broncos, Chargers and Commanders. The third-hardest schedule in the league remains, but the Steelers have built enough of a cushion to feel like a playoff lock.
Simply making the postseason isn’t especially noteworthy in Pittsburgh, given that the Steelers have done so in two of the past three years. The team’s lack of postseason success will eventually drive conversations, but Tomlin deserves credit for rendering what appears to be his best team in at least four years.
Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills
The Bills began 2024 without Stefon Diggs, Matt Milano and two of their top four players in defensive snaps. The results? A 9-2 record and a 99% chance of winning the AFC East yet again.
Although Josh Allen’s PFF overall grade has declined by almost seven points in 2024, Buffalo’s offense has remained a steady force under Joe Brady, ranking fourth in EPA per play. Khalil Shakir (80.5 PFF receiving grade) has helped mitigate the loss of Diggs and somewhat underwhelming play from both Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. Rookie Keon Coleman, too, has provided bright spots while battling injuries in his first year by posting a 70.0 receiving mark.
Meanwhile, the Bills rank ninth in defensive EPA per play despite declining play from Rasul Douglas, A.J. Epenesa and others this season. Von Miller (76.3 PFF overall grade) has come back to life in his third season in Buffalo; Greg Rousseau (87.8 PFF pass-rush grade) has served as the steadying force in a pass-rush room where only two, not six, players have posted 20-plus pressures; and Taylor Rapp (90.0 PFF tackling grade, 81.8 PFF run-defense grade) has filled holes at safety.
Buffalo appears to be one of the NFL's more well-rounded teams in a season in which many expected regression. If the Bills can stay competitive for the No. 1 seed despite encountering the fourth-hardest upcoming schedule in football, McDermott may receive more buzz for Coach of the Year honors.
Highest-Graded Bills Defenders
Jim Harbaugh, Los Angeles Chargers
The long-maligned Chargers may have received their savior. Despite major uncertainty looming at wide receiver and on a defense that ranked 27th in EPA per play last season, Jim Harbaugh has completely revitalized this team in his first year.
Los Angeles' defense has done a complete 180 under Jesse Minter, going from one of the worst units in football to the third-best defense in EPA per play. Elijah Molden, Poona Ford, Kristian Fulton and others have emerged, and veteran Khalil Mack (91.6 PFF overall grade) is still providing elite play. Maybe most impressive is that the Chargers’ defensive additions were not heralded by many, and that the existing talent on the roster has played at a higher level.
Los Angeles’ offense hasn’t been extremely dynamic, ranking only 13th in EPA per play. But after losing the team’s longtime nucleus of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Austin Ekeler, the Chargers have experienced good production from rookie Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston and even Will Dissly through the air.
Instead of regularly finding ways to lose football games, the Chargers have become a team that seizes commanding leads thanks to sound play in Harbaugh’s first season.
Jonathan Gannon, Arizona Cardinals
Arizona was projected to make a slight jump in Gannon’s second year, especially after getting back Kyler Murray for a full season. But to be 6-4, on a four-game win streak and atop the NFC West isn’t something anyone saw coming.
The Cardinals' offense has been potent all season, slotting seventh in EPA per play. Murray has rediscovered his early-career magic, posting an 82.4 PFF overall grade — his highest since 2021. Trey McBride (81.7 PFF overall grade) has rounded into one of the premier tight ends in football after a solid second season. Paris Johnson Jr. (79.6 PFF overall grade) has developed into one of the better tackles in the league despite struggling in his first year.
Arizona’s defense remains a bit of a liability, but there have still been bright spots. Garrett Williams has elevated his play tremendously in coverage; Mack Wilson Sr. (67.2 PFF overall grade) has proven a solid addition at linebacker; and rookie Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (84.2 PFF overall grade) has made plays when given the chance. It’s also relevant to acknowledge some major injuries along the defensive line.
The Cardinals face an uphill battle in winning the division, especially with the 49ers getting back running back Christian McCaffrey. Still, Arizona appears to be a viable wild-card team (58% chance of making the playoffs) in a conference where only a few teams appear legitimately great. Gannon deserves a major shoutout for even getting Arizona within the playoff picture this quickly — particularly in light of a roster that still needs upgrades.
Sean Payton, Denver Broncos
After a thoroughly lackluster first season in Denver, Sean Payton has quietly molded the Broncos into a solid team — and one of the best weekly watches on film.
Most of that progress stems from a defense playing at an extremely high level despite not boasting much household talent. Denver ranks second in EPA per play and has racked up the most total pressures in the league. Zach Allen (52 pressures) has wrecked games all year, but Brandon Jones, Jonathon Cooper, Justin Strnad and others have all grown immensely. Altogether, six Broncos have played 100-plus snaps and garnered 69.0-plus PFF overall grades.
Although Denver hasn't been in sync for much of the year on offense, the team’s offensive line has been one of the best in football all season. Plus, rookie Bo Nix has demonstrated improvement, ranking 11th in PFF overall grade among qualifying quarterbacks since Week 6. For Denver’s offense to be even somewhat functional, given its problems at wide receiver and running back, is good work.
Sitting at 6-5 after a dominant win over the Falcons, the Broncos have a 60% chance to make the postseason and should remain in the wild-card fray with teams like Cincinnati and Miami. Even if Denver doesn’t make the postseason, even being in contention feels like a major achievement for Payton in Year 1 of Nix.
Raheem Morris, Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons were prognosticated to be competitive in the NFC after an offseason of overhaul. Those dreams don’t always come true, but Atlanta’s has generally played out according to plan, sitting at 6-5 with a 72% chance to win the NFC South.
Zac Robinson’s offense has helped Bijan Robinson (91.6 PFF overall grade) show why he is one of the better all-around offensive players in football, while Darnell Mooney (74.3 PFF overall grade) has played like his impressive 2021 self.
Atlanta’s defense has taken some steps back without Ryan Nielsen, but better play from Nate Landman (72.9 PFF overall grade) and Clark Phillips III (69.3 PFF overall grade) has bolstered a unit that’s struggled to rush the passer.
The Falcons can only control their own performance, but it is worth acknowledging that their division is likely the weakest in football. Still, to win a division as a new head coach would be a feat worth celebrating — especially since Atlanta hasn’t accomplished that since 2016.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.