2023 NFL Playoff Picture: Vikings, Bengals among teams with the most at stake in Week 10

• Chiefs out in front in the AFC: The Kansas City Chiefs have a 40% chance of securing the top seed in the AFC, according to PFF's model.

• A massive week for the Vikings: The Minnesota Vikings have a 70% chance of making the playoffs with a Week 10 win against the New Orleans Saints, but their chances will fall to just 41% with a loss.

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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

The current situation ahead of Week 10

Current AFC playoff standings

Current NFC playoff standings

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The projections

Naturally, it’s unlikely the playoff picture will remain constant over the remainder of the season. And that’s why it makes sense to look at the projected playoff picture — the estimated chances PFF gives each team to make the playoffs.

The following charts show the projected playoff chances for each team alongside the playoff leverage, i.e., how the playoff chances would change with a win or loss.

The logos show the current playoff chances. The points to the right of the logos indicate the chances after a win, and the points to the left indicate the chances after a loss.

AFC PLAYOFF CHANCES

NFC PLAYOFF CHANCES

TEAMS WITH THE MOST AT STAKE IN WEEK 10

Team	Chances with win	Chances with loss	Leverage
Minnesota Vikings	74%	41%	33%
Cincinnati Bengals	70%	39%	31%
Buffalo Bills	60%	29%	31%
Seattle Seahawks	82%	52%	30%
Cleveland Browns	73%	43%	30%
New York Jets	54%	25%	29%

Playoff scenarios

Home-field advantage

Teams that hold the No. 1 seed in the conference have a huge advantage going into the playoffs. Here are the most likely teams to do that.

AFC	%	NFC	%
Kansas City Chiefs	40%	Philadelphia Eagles	70%
Baltimore Ravens	27%	Detroit Lions	13%
Jacksonville Jaguars	15%	San Francisco 49ers	7%
Cincinnati Bengals	6%	Dallas Cowboys	5%

Two wild cards for the same division

With the introduction of the seventh playoff seed, we've become accustomed to seeing three playoff teams from the same division. This has happened every year since 2020, when the playoffs were extended.

As of now, the AFC North has the best chance to pull it off, as all four teams of that division are positioned to make a playoff push come December. The AFC North features three playoff teams in the majority of our simulations. All four teams from that division make it to the playoffs 6% of the time. Here are the chances for each division to send three teams to the playoffs:

	AFC	NFC
North	56%	9%
East	5%	15%
South	3%	2%
West	2%	3%

Looking ahead to draft season

There are a few teams whose playoff chances are already bleak. But don’t fret — there is always the offseason and, most importantly, the draft.

PFF's customizable mock draft simulator gives you the opportunity to be the GM for any team in the 2024 NFL Draft — **click here to start drafting!**

The following teams have the biggest chance of picking first overall:

Arizona Cardinals (own pick): 40%
Chicago Bears (via Panthers): 28%
Chicago Bears (own pick): 10%
New York Giants: 10%
New England Patriots: 5%

Here are the chances of selecting inside the top five:

Arizona Cardinals (own pick): 88%
Chicago Bears (via Panthers): 79%
New York Giants: 66%
Chicago Bears (own pick): 58%
New England Patriots: 50%
Los Angeles Rams: 26%
Green Bay Packers: 20%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 17%
Washington Commanders: 15%
Denver Broncos: 14%
Arizona Cardinals (via Texans): 9%