• The winless Panthers could unload at the deadline: Edge defender Brian Burns could be dealt in an attempt by Carolina to recoup draft capital following the trade-up for quarterback Bryce Young.
• Do the Titans cut ties with Tannehill early? A starting quarterback getting moved at the trade deadline is a borderline pipe dream, but the Titans are a rebuilding team with back-to-back Day 2 picks spent on signal-callers.
• Draft and trade for yourself: Try PFF's Mock Draft Simulator — trade picks and players and mock for your favorite NFL team.
Estimated Reading Time: 18 minutes
The 2023 NFL trade deadline falls on Halloween this year, with all trades required to be executed prior to 4 p.m. EST on Oct. 31. Last year, 10 trades were executed in the week leading up to the deadline after a high of just five such trades in a single season over the decade prior. These weren’t just small deals for depth, either, with big-name players such as Christian McCaffrey, Bradley Chubb, Roquan Smith, T.J. Hockenson, Calvin Ridley and Chase Claypool moved for packages that included first- or second-round picks.
We’ve identified 15 of the top potential trade candidates across the NFL, and we’ve updated the PFF Mock Draft Simulator to include trade value projections for every player in the NFL. Head over to the Mock Draft Simulator to strike a deadline deal for your favorite team, and see what we think it could cost from a trade compensation perspective.
Editor's note: The article was originally published on Oct. 15 but has been republished due to the approaching trade deadline.
EDGE Chase Young, Washington Commanders
Washington officially has a problem, albeit a very good problem. We discussed this offseason, when analyzing the fifth-year option decisions for 2020 first-round picks, how Washington was taking a gamble by declining Young’s option and also not extending fellow edge rusher Montez Sweat. NFL teams have only one franchise tag at their disposal each offseason, and if the team did try to engage in extension talks with Sweat or Young, he’d hold a ton of leverage.
Sure enough, both players are playing very good football, with Young generating 11 quarterback pressures and a 37.9% pass-rush win rate in Week 5. Meanwhile, Sweat has 19 quarterback pressures and six sacks already on the season, with a run-defense grade above 75.0 for the fourth consecutive year.
Young and Sweat also share agent representation. Every player benefits from reaching the open market, so there’s no real reason for Washington to entertain an extension on one player just to free up the franchise tag for the other player, unless the team is willing to pay an exorbitant price. The Commanders really backed themselves into a corner here. Netting only a 2025 compensatory pick when one of the two signs elsewhere in free agency is a poor process when they could recoup potentially much more in a trade.
As always, a coaching staff and a front office that may be fighting to keep their jobs can be averse to moving off premium talent, but this move makes too much sense for the long term of the franchise, and perhaps new owner Josh Harris puts his thumb on the scale.
EDGE Brian Burns, Carolina Panthers
Burns and the Panthers were unable to come to terms on an extension this offseason after the Los Angeles Rams offered Carolina two first-round picks and a second-round pick to acquire him at last year’s deadline. Now, Burns is playing on his $16.012 million fifth-year option for the winless Panthers, and we imagine he wouldn’t mind a change of scenery.
It also makes sense for Carolina to recoup draft capital following the trade-up for quarterback Bryce Young, as they’re currently without a 2024 first-round or a 2025 second-round pick. They could get both of those back in a move, though the package of two firsts and a second is probably off the table.
So far in 2023, Burns has a 77.2 pass-rush grade, 13 quarterback pressures and five sacks. Burns has earned a 70.0-plus pass-rush grade with at least 50 quarterback pressures and nine sacks in three straight seasons, and he’s on pace to hit all of those marks once again in 2023.
EDGE Carl Lawson, New York Jets
Lawson has been a healthy inactive the past few weeks for the New York Jets, buried on perhaps the deepest edge rusher depth chart in the entire NFL. Plenty of playoff-caliber teams would love to bring him aboard. The emergence of 2022 first-round pick Jermaine Johnson II, the continued ascent of pass-rush specialist Bryce Huff and the arrival of 2023 first-round pick Will McDonald IV have given New York a lot of good players off the edge. Given they’re currently third in the NFL in 2023 cash spending and sending a second-round pick to the Green Bay Packers for Aaron Rodgers, some cash savings and a mid-round pick would be a nice addition.
Lawson, after tearing his Achilles in 2021, earned a 72.8 pass-rush grade with 49 pressures and eight sacks in 2022. Injuries have impacted his career, but he’s still a very productive player off the edge.
Lawson signed a reworked contract heading into the 2023 season that lowered his salary to $6 million, so he’s a far more affordable option for an acquiring team as compared to Brian Burns, for example. Lawson’s suitors would be teams looking for a 4-3 defensive end as opposed to 3-4 outside linebackers like Burns, but there are plenty of teams in both buckets that could use some help.
WR Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos
The Broncos have had talks centered on its 2020 first-round pick dating back to last year, and following their ugly 1-5 start, they appear to be primed for a full-scale firesale. Jeudy has been fairly productive for Denver this season, with 17 receptions for 208 yards, but has a 68.9 receiving grade — his lowest since his rookie season — and has yet to find the end zone. The Broncos may want to add draft capital after trading a 2023 first-rounder and a 2024 second-rounder for head coach Sean Payton and a 2024 third-round pick.
Dating back to last season, Jeudy’s 78.5 receiving grade ranks tied for 26th, his 5.9 yards after the catch per reception ranks sixth and his 2.1 yards per route run ranks 15th. The former first-round pick out of Alabama still has No. 1 wide receiver potential, but Denver is likely still seeking a first-round pick in a trade. What would really help Denver entertain this idea is the continued emergence of rookie wideout Marvin Mims, who has not played a ton of snaps but has been remarkably efficient when on the field.
Another attractive component of acquiring Jeudy is that he has a very manageable $12.987 million 2024 fifth-year option. His new team would have the ability to either extend him off a strong half-season or see things through for another year.
WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
The other wide receiver in Denver who could be available is Courtland Sutton. He currently leads the receiver room with 21 receptions and three touchdowns, and he ranks second with 229 receiving yards. Sutton’s 65.7 receiving grade is the lowest since his rookie season, and a good bit of his production has come when Denver is playing from behind and throwing a ton. As we mentioned above, rookie Marvin Mims has become something of an X-factor in all of this, because Denver will still have two capable wideouts if they move one.
Sutton is playing in 2023 on a $14 million fully guaranteed salary, the exact same situation as edge defender Randy Gregory — who the team traded to the San Francisco 49ers last week. To execute that trade, Denver retained all salary above the minimum remaining on Gregory’s contract, since they were going to have to pay that money regardless. All that netted them was a 2024 sixth-round pick for a 2024 seventh-round pick. Denver has a history of this kind of move in the past garnering them a far better compensation package, netting second- and third-round picks for edge defender Von Miller from the Los Angeles Rams after they again retained all salary above the minimum.
With Sutton, the return will fall somewhere in the middle of the salary dump pick swap and the Miller deal, perhaps around a fourth-round pick if the Broncos take on all excess money in the deal. That's what the Chicago Bears recouped for edge defender Robert Quinn last offseason from the Philadelphia Eagles after they also retained all salary above the minimum.
WR Hunter Renfrow, Las Vegas Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders have had phone calls centered on wide receiver Hunter Renfrow this season, and it’d be somewhat of a surprise if he isn’t moved before the Oct. 31 trade deadline. Renfrow has two years remaining on the extension he signed in 2022 but no guarantees beyond this season. An acquiring team would take on a $3.61 million salary for the remainder of 2023 if they add Renfrow right before the deadline, which is a reasonable number.
Renfrow has effectively been an afterthought in the Raiders' offense, with nine targets on the season and not many routes run when both Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers have been healthy. Renfrow recorded 103 receptions for 1,038 yards with nine touchdowns in 2021 but has just 41 receptions for 382 yards and two touchdowns since. His 82.3 receiving grade in 2021 ranked 14th among wide receivers, but his 60.3 mark since 2022 ranks 87th out of 105 qualifying wide receivers over the span. Clearly, he is not in the long-term plans of the Raiders' new regime.
Adding a player who can separately quickly at the line of scrimmage and provide a check-down outlet for a quarterback is always a benefit, and a handful of playoff contenders — such as the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles — could benefit from adding his skill set.
WR Kendrick Bourne, New England Patriots
Bourne has reemerged as a focal point of the New England Patriots‘ offense in 2023 after seeming to land in Matt Patricia’s doghouse in 2022. His 18 receptions, 218 receiving yards, 10 first downs and two touchdowns all lead the unit in 2023.
Bourne is in the final year of his three-year contract signed in 2021, and New England has two rookie wideouts in Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte, plus 2022 second-round pick Tyquan Thornton, returning from injured reserve in the near future. While this Patriots team may not want to admit it, they are as far away from contention as any roster in the NFL right now, and it would probably be prudent to add some draft capital in exchange for veterans on expiring contracts. Bourne is not the last Patriots player on this list.
Bourne kicked off 2023 with six receptions for 64 yards and two touchdowns, and he could be a solid No. 2 or No. 3 receiving option for a handful of playoff contenders. He earned a 78.1 receiving grade with the San Francisco 49ers during their 2019 Super Bowl run and posted a 78.4 receiving grade with seven receptions for 77 yards and two touchdowns in 2021 with the New England Patriots in their lone playoff outing.
WR Terrace Marshall, Carolina Panthers
Marshall had a bizarre two-week stretch from Week 4 to Week 5, hauling in nine receptions in the former outing and then playing zero snaps in the latter. Whenever a productive player’s usage dips like this in the weeks leading up to the trade deadline, we're on alert. Marshall always seems to produce when he gets run in Carolina, but they’ve continued to add wide receivers, most recently using an early second-round pick on rookie Jonathan Mingo and signing free agent D.J. Chark to a one-year deal. Chark has a very similar skill set to Marshall, taking the top off opposing defenses and winning downfield, an area Marshall really excelled in last year.
Terrace Marshall in 2022 on targets 10-plus yards downfield
- 88.6 receiving grade
- 18 receptions for 382 yards (21.2 yards per reception)
- Six contested catches (top 35 among WRs)
- Two missed tackles forced after the catch (top 20 among WRs)
- 4.2% drop rate (one drop on 24 catchable targets)
- 117.4 passer rating when targeted (20th among WRs)
Marshall would be a solid addition for a lot of teams. The Los Angeles Chargers, with wide receiver Mike Williams out for the season as they bring along rookie Quentin Johnston, are one potential destination.
QB Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
Tennessee currently sits at 2-4 and, for all intents and purposes, is squarely in the mix for the AFC South crown. But more realistically, the Titans are a rebuilding team with back-to-back Day 2 picks spent on quarterbacks.
Beyond Tennessee’s likely reluctance to punt on the 2023 season and turn their focus to the future, Tannehill’s $27 million salary is the biggest impediment to this trade happening. At the deadline, Tannehill would still be owed another $15 million for the rest of the season, a huge number for a team like the New York Jets or Atlanta Falcons — both of whom have coaching connections to Tannehill and perhaps a desire to upgrade at quarterback — to inherit.
Tennessee would have to retain salary just like the Miami Dolphins did when they traded Tannehill to the Tennessee Titans, but effectively buying a draft pick to assist in their rebuild does make sense. In reality, a starting quarterback getting moved at the trade deadline is a borderline pipe dream, but we had to at least discuss the idea.
EDGE Danielle Hunter, Minnesota Vikings
Hunter has been the subject of trade talks for the past several years as he’s gotten his contract reworked time and time again, but now it just makes too much sense for all parties. Retaining the best player on the defense for a playoff team was understandable. Holding onto Hunter now in the final year of his contract on a 2-4 Vikings squad that just lost superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson for the foreseeable future is illogical.
Hunter was one of just three players in 2022 to rack up at least 60 quarterback pressures and 40 defensive stops, and he added 12 sacks and an 86.3 overall grade. He has 17 quarterback pressures and six sacks in 2023, though a good bit of that production has come on clean-up work as opposed to consistently winning pass-rush snaps early on. Nevertheless, he’s a very talented all-around player who turns just 29 years old two days before the trade deadline. An acquiring team may not just be adding a mercenary for a 2023 playoff push but could explore an extension before Hunter’s contract voids next March.
Several playoff contenders, including the Baltimore Ravens, Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints, are in dire need of reinforcements off the edge.
EDGE Josh Uche, New England Patriots
The Patriots may not want to give up on a young stud edge defender, especially with top edge defender Matthew Judon out for a few months with a torn biceps tendon. Uche has been remarkably efficient as a designated pass-rusher in New England. He has generated 56 quarterback pressures and 12 sacks on just 285 pass-rush reps, with his 19.2% pass-rush win rate ranking sixth among edge defenders and his 20.7% pressure rate placing second.
The thinking here is that New England may struggle to find common ground in a valuation for a part-time player, with Uche logging just 373 total snaps in 2022. He’s on pace for a much larger snap share in 2023 thus far, and Judon's injury vaulted him into a larger role right away in Week 5. He played 36 snaps in the outing, which is the third most in a game of his career. Uche’s run-defense grades haven’t been terrible by any means, but he’s clearly being shielded from early-down work against the run, so the Patriots know what they see in practice.
New England should probably find a way to strike a deal on an extension this upcoming offseason, as they’re projected to have the most 2024 cap space and the third-lowest 2024 cash spend as of today. However, if they really want to hit the reset button, Uche is the exact kind of player you can get a playoff contender to overspend on at the deadline, given he fills such a valuable role.
CB Jaylon Johnson, Chicago Bears
It’s quite rare that a legitimate upgrade at cornerback can be found at the trade deadline. Teams are always looking to add coverage talent and depth, but that usually comes in the CB3-5 market. Johnson has the makings of a legit No. 1 or high-end No. 2 outside cornerback, and it’s reasonable to think Chicago would at least entertain a trade for the right price.
Chicago used a top-40 pick in 2022 on cornerback Kyler Gordon and spent another second-round pick and a fifth-round pick this year on cornerbacks Tyrique Stevenson and Terell Smith. The Bears are definitely in the “retain good, young talent” phase of their rebuild, but at this particular position, the new regime has already invested a lot of resources.
Johnson is a very talented and scheme-diverse player, with his 84.1 coverage grade so far in 2023 the fifth-best mark among cornerbacks with at least 50 coverage snaps. Among cornerbacks who have faced at least 10 targets, Johnson’s 41.7% completion rate allowed ranks fourth, his 73 yards allowed ranks eighth and his 16.7% forced incompletion rate ranks tied for 17th. He has also not missed a tackle in coverage. He’s a very good football player, but the issue has always been missed time. Johnson missed Weeks 4 and 5 after logging just 656 snaps in 2022 as he dealt with various ailments.
This trade probably gets done only if several suitors enter the conversation and drive this price up considerably. A free agent contract for Johnson would potentially net the Bears a fourth-round compensatory pick. Chicago will be spending in free agency, so they have to weigh the potential that they cancel out any compensatory picks earned, but they should nonetheless stick to this value — if not more — for a good young player. The franchise tag remains an option, as well.
G Michael Onwenu, New England Patriots
We’re back with yet another Patriots player. New England already got a jumpstart on finding Onwenu’s replacement by drafting three offensive linemen in this past year’s class. In Onwenu’s first three seasons, he earned grades of 84.3, 87.0 and 79.3.
The list of potential suitors for the 6-foot-3, 350-pound Onwenu is limited to teams that primarily run a gap scheme or don’t deploy a ton of outside zone concepts asking their offensive linemen to get to the second level quickly off the snap. However, Onwenu has excelled at both guard spots and right tackle throughout his career, so his position flexibility should expand the list of suitors at the same time.
In Onwenu’s rookie season primarily at right tackle, but with more than 100 snaps at each guard spot, he earned an 84.9 pass-blocking grade and allowed pressure on just 3.1% of pass-blocking snaps, 10th-best among offensive linemen lined up at right tackle or either guard spot. He improved his pass-blocking grade to an 89.8 mark and lowered his pressure rate to 2.9% in 2021. He’s having a down 2023 thus far, so perhaps New England lets its rookies learn on the fly, given nothing has worked up front anyway.
With all of these Patriots mentions, it’s key to note that New England has historically played the compensatory pick game as well as anyone. However, this offseason, they figure to spend in line with their 2021 free agent class, which could cancel out picks earned for the theoretical losses of Bourne, Uche, Onwenu and safety Kyle Dugger.
WR Parris Campbell, New York Giants
The Giants' wide receiver corps is one of the most redundant collections of talent at any position group across the NFL, as they continue to add more and more players who have primarily produced out of the slot. 2022 second-round pick Wan’Dale Robinson is back in action from his torn ACL suffered last season and already looks like the top receiver on the depth chart. 2023 third-round rookie speedster Jalin Hyatt can line up outside, and New York has played him there a good bit, but he operated out of the slot in college at Tennessee. Then you have veteran Sterling Shepard waiting in the wings, and even Cole Beasley is biding his time on the practice squad.
Campbell was a free agent acquisition this offseason and has a 50.8 receiving grade with just 85 receiving yards on 16 receptions, a long reception of 17 yards and two forced missed tackles. Because of Campbell’s injury history, he has $1.7 million in 2023 compensation tied to per-game roster bonuses, more than his $1.4 million 2023 base salary.
WR Mecole Hardman, New York Jets
*Hardman has since been traded to the Kansas City Chiefs
Hardman signed a one-year, $4 million contract with the New York Jets in free agency after winning two Super Bowls with the Kansas City Chiefs but now finds himself as a weekly healthy inactive following the emergence of Jets undrafted rookie wideout Xavier Gipson. Gipson has been far from a focal point of the Jets' offense, with just one reception for four yards on the season, but has handled the jet-sweep and punt/kick return duties with his dynamic speed. Gipson was the Week 1 hero with a walk-off punt return against the Buffalo Bills in overtime.
Hardman was the explosive speedster with field-stretching ability as a rookie with the Chiefs in 2019, averaging more than 20 yards per reception and freeing things up underneath on go routes while also getting screen-game work. Plenty of teams could use a vertical threat who can also have touches manufactured for them on quick outs, and Hardman is clearly not going to be a New York Jet for much longer.
The Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles could inquire for a late-round pick swap.
Other names to monitor
- RB Dalvin Cook, New York Jets
- RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- WR DeAndre Hopkins, Tennessee Titans
- WR K.J. Osborn, Minnesota Vikings
- OT Garett Bolles, Denver Broncos
- LB Jordan Hicks, Minnesota Vikings
- LB Josey Jewell, Denver Broncos
- CB Darnay Holmes, New York Giants
- S Jeremy Chinn, Carolina Panthers
- S Justin Simmons, Denver Broncos
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