2023 NFL Playoff Picture: Buccaneers, Falcons have a lot at stake in Week 7

• Pressure on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs have a 73% of making the playoffs with a Week 7 win. Their chances drop to 40% with a loss.

• New faces in the playoffs: If the current standings hold up, we would welcome two new AFC teams (Steelers and Browns) as well as two new NFC teams (Lions and Rams) to the playoffs. The Lions (2016) would end a long playoff drought.

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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

By the end of Week 7, more than one-third of the regular season will have been played, and franchises will start to cast their eyes on the playoffs. So, from now until the end of the regular season, we will look at the current and projected playoff picture.

The current situation ahead of Week 7

Current AFC playoff standings

Current NFC playoff standings

If these standings held up, we would welcome two new AFC teams (Steelers and Browns) as well as two new NFC teams (Lions and Rams) to the playoffs. The Lions (2016) would end a long playoff drought.

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The projections

Naturally, it’s unlikely the playoff picture will remain constant over the remainder of the season. And that’s why it makes sense to look at the projected playoff picture — the estimated chances PFF gives each team to make the playoffs.

The following charts show the projected playoff chances for each team alongside the playoff leverage, i.e., how the playoff chances would change with a win or loss.

The logos show the current playoff chances. The points to the right of the logos indicate the chances after a win, and the points to the left indicate the chances after a loss.

AFC PLAYOFF CHANCES

Note that the New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals, Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans are on a bye week.

NFC PLAYOFF CHANCES

Here is the same chart for the NFC. Note that the Dallas Cowboys and Carolina Panthers are on a bye week.

TEAMS WITH THE MOST AT STAKE IN WEEK 6

Team	Chances with win	Chances with loss	Leverage
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	73%	40%	33%
Atlanta Falcons	48%	19%	29%
Cleveland Browns	68%	39%	29%
Seattle Seahawks	59%	31%	28%
Indianapolis Colts	48%	21%	27%
Los Angeles Chargers	39%	13%	26%

Playoff scenarios

Home-field advantage

Earning the No. 1 seed in the conference is a huge advantage going into the playoffs. Here are the teams most likely to clinch home-field advantage.

AFC	%	NFC	%
Kansas City Chiefs	48%	San Francisco 49ers	36%
Miami Dolphins	13%	Philadelphia Eagles	31%
Buffalo Bills	12%	Detroit Lions	17%
Baltimore Ravens	9%	Dallas Cowboys	7%

wild cards from the same division

With the introduction of the seventh playoff seed, we've become accustomed to seeing three playoff teams from the same division. This has happened every year since 2020, when the playoffs were extended.

As of now, there isn’t a division with three clear and obvious playoff contenders, but the AFC East, AFC North, NFC West and NFC East have a decent chance of pulling it off. Here are the chances for each division to send three teams to the playoffs.