Simulating the season-long impact of Aaron Rodgers with the Packers vs. with the Broncos

Chicago, IL, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) passes against the Chicago Bears during their football game Sunday, January 3, 2021, at Soldier Field in Chicago, Ill. Mandatory Credit: Dan Powers-USA TODAY NETWORK

By Eric Eager
Posted Jul 21, 2021 8:33 am EDT

The 2021 NFL offseason is nearing its end, with players reporting to training camp over the next week or so and injuries beginning to crop up. But as was the case with the 2021 NFL Draft, Aaron Rodgers continues to steal the show regardless.

ESPN's Adam Schefter reported Tuesday that Rodgers turned down a deal this offseason that would have made him the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL.

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This has made handicapping the offseason a difficult task for both sportsbooks and PFF. In our PFF ELO power ratings, we’ve assumed that Rodgers is playing for Green Bay, and as such, the Packers have ranked somewhere between third and fourth (somewhat depending on their fluctuating market odds).

This is deviant with respect to PFF's market-implied power ratings, which PFF's Ben Brown computed using the game-by-game lines for all 272 regular-season contests in 2021. The Packers were 12th in such ratings. At 20/1 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook, Green Bay is currently the eighth-most likely team to win the Super Bowl (although there are better odds at other books).

The Packers with Aaron Rodgers should be a Super Bowl favorite

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