Longshot worth firing: Giants WR Toney to lead NFL in receiving

• BetMGM has tons of season-leader player props

•  A $20 bet on Giants WR Kadarius Toney to lead the NFL in receiving yards would return $2,020

• Check out Toney's complete PFF premium profile

Most bettors place wagers in multiple markets — spreads, totals, teasers, props, etc. — where they generally get oriented by following a bottom-up approach: “Which spreads do I like?” “Which totals stand out this week?”

But the goal in this space is to articulate my process for bets by following a top-down approach. We will consider how a specific thesis on a team, player, or trend is best applied and capitalized on the proper market. Some bets will track more traditional markets, but more often we will look to maximize our upside in the multitude of different markets offered by sportsbooks — dependent on finding the right market for the thesis! Let’s dive in.

New York Giants WR Kadarius Toney flashed elite efficiency and should be a cog in a voluminous passing offense that faces weak opponents

Best Bet: Toney to lead NFL in receiving yards, +10000 on DraftKings

BOTTOM LINE

Betting a volume stat requires passing volume and efficiency on the part of the receiver. New Giants HC Brian Daboll figures to bring a high-volume passing offense. Toney was elite at earning targets as a rookie, and he was highly efficient — especially after the catch. Adding in a possible downfield role against what projects as the easiest passing schedule in the league might just unleash Toney as the NFL’s leading receiver.

When betting on a tail outcome, we need to orient our thinking toward betting on tail events. This means the question we need to ask is not what’s most likely to happen, but if everything breaks Toney’s way, what is his ceiling outcome — and is there a realistic case for that to hit?

We’re betting on a volume stat, and the Giants should have plenty of passing volume flowing to Toney. 

• Daboll’s Bills threw over expected 7.5 percent of the time over the past two years, third-highest in the NFL. 

• Earning targets is a skill, and Toney led all rookies — and was 10th among all wideouts last year — earning a target on 26 percent of his routes. 

• In a potential high-volume passing offense, these targets are projected to come against the easiest schedule of passing defenses. 

As for Toney’s efficiency as a rookie in a putrid offensive system:

• 2nd in Missed Tackles forced per reception

• 10th in Yards after Catch per reception

• 15th Yards per Route Run  

And here is how Toney fared in some of PFF’s Stable Metrics:

Critics might point to Toney’s low 6.5 aDOT (6th percentile among receivers) as cause for concern. But I’m going to bet that it rises dramatically under Daboll (Bills 7th in aDOT since 2020), and Toney’s low aDOT reflects the Giants' refusal last season to throw deep more than it reflects Toney’s skillset.