We’ve all been there. You get all excited circling the name of an up-and-comer who will outperform his fantasy draft stock, only to wind up disappointed when the stars don’t end up in alignment. But do you take that name off your draft board the following year, vowing not to be let down again? Or do you take another look at the circumstances, dig into the data, and find value where other drafters see only the bust label?
Year after year, savvy fantasy drafters are able to uncover some amazing value thanks to the phenomenon we've come to know as “post-hype sleepers.” For example, coming off a so-so rookie year, former No. 4 overall pick Sammy Watkins could be had in the sixth round in 2015, when he went on to finish seventh among WRs in fantasy points per game. Or, perhaps you were mindful enough to grab former FBS rushing record holder Melvin Gordon last summer after 20 other RBs were already off the board.
Last time around, I analyzed five running back post-hype sleeper candidates, and this time we'll delve into five such receivers. This list is essentially comprised of guys drafted in the last three years who previously generated some breakout buzz, but for one reason or another it hasn’t quite happened. Of course, it might never happen. But in using PFF data to peel back the layers, a case can be made for each of these players to live up to their previous hype, if only a year or two later than once expected.
DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins
NFL draft: first round, 2015
2017 ADP: 8.04
2016 ADP: 8.08
The case against: Parker has thus far failed to live up to his first-round pedigree, having struggled with various injuries and inconsistency through his first two seasons.
The case for: Given the amount of hyperbole Dolphins coaches have tossed around when discussing Parker this offseason, I was quite surprised to still see his ADP as the WR38 in PPR. Put simply, if Parker is truly past the nagging foot and hamstring issues, then he presents an insane value for fantasy drafters in the eighth round. While his game-to-game production was spotty at best in 2016, Parker did haul in all but one of his 57 catchable targets for a catch rate that ranked fifth-best out of 96 qualifiers. Perhaps with more chemistry with Ryan Tannehill, an uptick in production is as simple as an uptick in targets. Parker saw eight or more targets in only three of 16 games, and in those games he averaged seven catches (on 10 targets) for 96 yards.
Corey Coleman, Cleveland Browns
NFL draft: first round, 2016
2016 ADP: 9.06
2016 ADP: 10.04
The case against: The talent is certainly there, but Coleman is difficult to trust in fantasy due to his limited sample size and suspect quarterback situation in 2016. He ranked 99th among WRs in yards per target (6.7) and 98th in fantasy points per opportunity (0.16).
The case for: Coleman was the top-ranked WR in the 2016 draft class by our analysts, who lauded his ability to separate and turn short gains into big plays. Those traits were evident from the start of his pro career when Coleman hauled in a 58-yard catch in his debut, then broke out for 104 yards and two TDs the very next week before a broken hand put him on the shelf until Week 9. Of course, the fact that the Browns trotted out five different starting quarterbacks didn’t help matters, but with rookie DeShone Kizer drawing rave reviews in rookie camp and splitting first-team reps at OTAs, the future could be much brighter for Coleman in Year 2.
Kevin White, Chicago Bears
NFL draft: first round, 2015
2017 ADP: 12.06
2016 ADP: 9.02
The case against: Leg and ankle injuries have limited the seventh overall pick in the 2015 draft to just four games through two seasons. Even if fully healthy – he reportedly is full speed – it’s wise to rein in expectations considering White was an extremely raw prospect coming out of West Virginia, where he ran a limited route tree and lined up strictly on the right side.
The case for: Still, between the departures of Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal, there are nearly 140 unclaimed targets up for grabs in the Bears’ WR corps. In his first four games as a pro, White did average nine targets per game as the Bears clearly wanted to get the ball in his hands. Of his 20 “catchable” targets, White hauled in 19 of them, which would extrapolate to 76 over a full season. Whether Mike Glennon or Mitchell Trubisky or someone else wins the starting QB gig, there shouldn’t be much dropoff from last year, when Jay Cutler and Matt Barkley combined for 12 TDs and 19 INTs in 11 starts.
Josh Doctson, Washington Redskins
NFL draft: first round, 2016
2017 ADP: 12.08
2016 ADP: N/A (injured)
The case against: Similar to White, Doctson was a coveted prospect entering the league, but we simply have not had a chance to see what he can do at the pro level due to last year’s Achilles injury. Although DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon are no longer around, the Redskins still have a number of mouths to feed after signing Terrelle Pryor to fend for targets alongside Jamison Crowder and Jordan Reed.
The case for: Doctson only posted two catches in two games last year, although those were the only two of his six targets deemed catchable, and one went for 57 yards. The 6-foot-2 Doctson might not have the same wheels as even a 30-year-old Jackson, but he stands four inches taller, and whereas Garcon has proven himself as a fine possession receiver, Doctson’s vertical jump was tops in the 2016 draft class. And that’s where his bread is buttered. Coming out of TCU, our draft analysts noted Doctson’s tremendous leaping ability to go up and win jump balls, as well as his physicality to out-muscle defensive backs and shield with his body on slants. No receiver in last year’s draft class averaged more yards per route run than Doctson (4.07), who was widely considered the most pro-ready.
Will Fuller, Houston Texans
NFL draft: first round, 2016
2017 ADP: 14.09
2016 ADP: 11.10
The case against: After a hot start to his pro career, Fuller quickly faded off the fantasy radar as nagging injuries took their toll. Drops have also been a persistent issue going back to college; he was 78th in drop rate as a rookie after ranking 88th and 82nd in his previous two seasons at Notre Dame. Although a somewhat underrated route runner, his mostly vertical route tree lends itself to boom-or-bust fantasy production.
The case for: I was tempted to go with Laquon Treadwell here based on offseason reports, and even if coach Mike Zimmer has a penchant for taking it slow with rookies, Treadwell’s past struggles with separation are a very real concern. There is no such concern for Fuller, whose 4.32-second 40 time was the best in the 2016 draft class. That speed translated over to the pros, as he cracked 100 receiving yards in each of his first two games and drew an average of 8.4 targets through Week 4. However, he was never really a fit with Brock Osweiler, one of the league’s poorest deep-ball passers. Rookie Deshaun Watson was among college football’s most accurate QBs last season on passes targeted 20-plus yards downfield (46.7 percent, 1,048 yards, 14 TDs, 3 INTs), and such throws accounted for 34.5 percent of Fuller’s targets in 2016.
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