Fantasy: Pro Football Focus Auction Analysis

I recently took part in the PFF fantasy auction draft, and it was an awesome experience. I’ve had a good but not great deal of auction experience in the past, but I’ve never been in a league with such talented owners. The auction was difficult from start to finish because no one really “messed up;” the great value you can acquire in typical leagues just wasn’t there. I’ve never seen such equally-talented lineups across the board.

Nonetheless, every owner found their fair share of bargains. I wanted to dissect this auction in greater detail, analyzing who I think are the best and worst values for each team. Here we go. . .

Best Value: Frank Gore – $15

Gore is admittedly past his prime and carries risk heading into the 2012 season, but this is still great value. The feature back on a team that will run, run, and then run, Gore still has RB2 potential this season. At $15, he cost $12 less than rookie running back Doug Martin.

Worst Value: Cam Newton – $28

I don’t think this was really Jeff’s fault; Newton was one of the first quarterbacks nominated and most owners, I think, didn’t foresee the bargains that were in store at the quarterback position. I know I didn’t, since I was the one in a bidding war with Jeff to acquire Newton. In comparison, Drew Brees cost $2 less than Newton.

Best Value: Willis McGahee – $9

This isn’t a keeper league, so McGahee still holds some value to owners. With Peyton Manning in town and a lack of significant competition, McGahee was a steal for $9.

Worst Value: Kenny Britt – $27 

I thought $27 was a steep price to pay for Britt. He has great upside, but Jeremy Maclin, Jordy Nelson, Miles Austin, and Percy Harvin all went for less money. Even Brandon Marshall had the same price tag as Britt.

Best Value: Reggie Wayne – $8

Another “redraft-only” type of player, Wayne is your prototypical “buy low” candidate. He went for just $1 more than Michael Crabtree, but he’ll outscore him by a wide margin.

Worst Value: Arian Foster – $61 

Eric got perhaps the top fantasy player in the league, but the price was too high. This was really through no fault of his own—I considered bidding on Foster at $62 because he was one of the first players nominated. The shrewd PFF owners didn’t overspend early like owners do in most auctions, so top-tier talent didn’t go for the normal 35 percent of cap space. In comparison, LeSean McCoy was $53 and Ray Rice was $50.

Best Value: Eric Decker – $11

I recently did an article on Decker’s fantasy value in 2012, and I actually don’t think it differs too much from that of Demaryius Thomas, who went for $25 in this auction.

Worst Value: Doug Martin – $27 

Martin could haul in a lot of receptions in 2012, and I think that’s what Alex was paying for in this PPR league. Nonetheless, I think this is a big price to pay for an unknown commodity when Darren Sproles’ price tag was just one dollar more.

Best Value: DeSean Jackson – $12

Obviously I’m biased here, but I thought Jackson was one of the better values in this draft. In traditional PPR leagues, owners overpay for players who don’t catch a lot of passes. In expert leagues like this one, I think receivers who don’t catch a ton of balls sometimes get undervalued. Jackson likely won’t catch more than 65 passes this year, but he’ll probably see a jump in YPC from 2011.

Worst Value: Tony Romo – $17 

I overpaid for Romo because he was the last quarterback left in my second tier. Had I known quarterbacks like Matt Ryan, Philip Rivers, and Eli Manning would get taken for $12, $9, and $7, respectively, I never would have spent so much on Romo. I could have had Rivers and Manning for $4 less than my current Romo-Bradford duo.

Best Value: LeSean McCoy – $53

McCoy was my top-rated back. With Foster at $61, McCoy is unreal value.

Worst Value: Matt Forte – $43 

The backfield of McCoy and Forte will be formidable, but I thought Forte’s value was closer to $35 or so. In comparison, Maurice Jones-Drew only $39.

Best Value: Matt Ryan – $12

Ryan has top five potential in 2012. I wish I had him at $12 instead of Romo at $17.

Worst Value: DeMarco Murray – $40 

As a writer for DallasCowboys.com, I have a pretty good grasp on everything Dallas Cowboys. Knowing Jason Garrett, I don’t think Murray will get the touches necessary to live up to this price, receptions included.

Best Value: Drew Brees – $26

There are a lot of good values here, but Brees is by far the best at only $26. Despite the widespread concern, there’s really not much risk surrounding Brees this season.

Worst Value: Victor Cruz – $32

I don’t have Cruz rated as highly as most simply because I think the Giants’ passing game as a whole will regress in 2012. Teammate Hakeem Nicks went for $1 less than Cruz.

Best Value: Andre Johnson – $31

I love Andre Johnson at this price tag. You’re getting a top three receiver for a bargain price. I’d rather have him at this price than Larry Fitzgerald, who I took for $38.

Worst Value: James Starks – $15

Obviously Mike Nugent is the worst value, but he was simply the result of having $13 remaining with only one roster spot available. Other than him, I don’t see any major mistakes here. I’ll choose Starks simply because the Packers use a RBBC, he won’t catch a ton of passes, and he doesn’t have a history of production.

Best Value: Mike Wallace – $25

Here’s how amazing I think this value is: I have Wallace projected to lead the league in receiving yards. I wasn’t in a position to take him, or I would have spent up to $35 on Wallace. Tremendous value.

Worst Value: Roddy White – $32

**Note: I apologize for the formatting of the next two rosters. I spent hours trying to get the cells to copy properly from Yahoo, but to no avail.

PFF_MWoellert

1. Ray Rice $50
2. Calvin Johnson $43
3. Matt Schaub $10
4. Demaryius Thomas $25 
5. Ahmad Bradshaw $18
6. Steve Johnson $17
7. Fred Davis $9
8. Houston D $1 
9. Jay Cutler $8 
10. John Kasay $1
11. Michael Crabtree $7
12. Shane Vereen $5
13. Jonathan Dwyer $1
14. Kendall Wright $1
15. Vincent Brown $1
16. Tim Hightower $3 

Best Value: Shane Vereen – $5

Anything can happen in the Patriots’ backfield, and grabbing Vereen for just a few dollars could provide big gains down the line.

Worst Value: Calvin Johnson – $43

It isn’t that I don’t love Johnson—he’s my top-rated receiver. I just think receiver production tends to fluctuate too much to spend big bucks. You could argue the same for me with Fitzgerald at $38, I suppose. Had I known how the position would unfold, I would have much preferred Wallace at $25 or Welker at $32.

@Bryan_Fontaine

1. Nate Kaeding $1
2. Jimmy Graham $31
3. Julio Jones $36
4. Donald Brown $12
5. Torrey Smith $17
6. Jake Locker $2
7. Dwayne Bowe $18
8. Roy Helu $16
9.  Jacquizz Rodgers $8
10. Philip Rivers $9
11. Antonio Brown $24
12. Shonn Greene $17
13. Brent Celek $3
14. Buffalo D $1
15. Toby Gerhart $3
16. Brian Hartline $2