(This week, PFF Fantasy’s writers will be highlight the common pitfalls drafters run into, the most common errors fantasy players make on draft day. Monday, it was standard leagues. Tuesday it was auction leagues. Thursday was IDP. And today it wraps up with dynasty leagues. Welcome to Draft Mistakes Week.)
Whether you are a seasoned dynasty leaguer or have just decided to take the plunge into the wonderful world of dynasty leagues, we all make mistakes on draft day that, in hindsight, we should have known to avoid.
If you’re new to dynasty – easily my favorite fantasy format – you can find some tips and general strategy here. There’s something incredibly rewarding about building a team from the ground up, nurturing it from year to year and watching it blossom into a powerhouse, a powerhouse that you shaped via numerous trades, draft picks, trades for draft picks, and of course, keeping tabs on all those mundane minicamp reports while the redraft folks were off doing stuff like going on with their normal lives.
However, all of that offseason research can quickly go for naught by falling into a few common traps on the day of your dynasty startup draft. Below, we’ll look at five of those traps and how to avoid them.
Overlooking shelf life
It’s the first round of your dynasty startup draft and you’re on the clock. What position are you eyeing up? If you said running back, it’d better be for one of Le’Veon Bell, David Johnson, or Ezekiel Elliott. Otherwise, the best bang for your dynasty buck is to snatch up a bona fide WR1 entering or right in his prime. Historically, elite fantasy production for both RB and WR peaks around age 26. But among players age 27 and older, over the last five years there have been twice as many 1,000-yard receiving seasons than rushing. Of course, according to the NFL Players Association, the average career of an NFL player is only 3.3 years (RBs have the shortest shelf life, at 2.57 years, while WRs are at 2.81).
On the other hand, the top four QBs in fantasy points per game last year sported an average age of 35. In fact, Dak Prescott was the only QB in the top-10 under 25. While the development of youngsters like Carson Wentz and DeShone Kizer is certainly worth monitoring, there’s still no need to overpay (Wentz carries an 11th-round dynasty ADP). Instead, look at the more seasoned, proven QBs at or near their prime years.
Wanting to get a top signal-caller in my pocket right at the nadir of his career arc, a couple of months ago I dealt Drew Brees and a top-five pick (I have Kirk Cousins) in our upcoming rookie draft for Andrew Luck, the consensus No. 1 dynasty QB on our site and across the industry. Although I had dreamed of the chance to draft Leonard Fournette ever since he was making runs like this, the fact is that in 10 years Luck will be the same age as Brees is now, whereas the odds are longer that a 32-year-old Fournette will be in anyone’s fantasy lineup.
Passing up top-tier talent for current situation
Rather than prioritizing the here and now, dynasty drafters need to be mindful about planting seeds that will bear fruit next harvest season, and for seasons to come. The cream ultimately rises to the top, or, as former Sixers’ GM Sam Hinkie has described his very dynasty-esque approach about building something special: “We’re planting seeds to have an orchard. Some would have us go out and buy apples. But we want to build the whole orchard.”
That’s the type of long view to keep at the forefront for dynasty drafts, because we can’t predict injuries or what our roster needs might look like a year down the road. For example, rookie TE production (or lack thereof) has been well-documented, but a blue-chip prospect like Cleveland’s David Njoku in the 10th round of dynasty startups is the exact type of long-game investment that could return huge dividends for years to come. It’s why savvy dynasty drafters aren’t (or shouldn’t be) dissuaded by injuries to talented rookies like Todd Gurley or Mike Williams, and why they don’t overreact to marginal talent entering “optimal” situations, a la Bishop Sankey in 2014.
And unlike the real-life scenario of the Sixers’ roster management where drafting three centers is maybe not the best idea, in dynasty, leverage is our friend. I’ve rostered three quarterbacks, entirely for the purpose of swinging sweet deals when another owner becomes QB-strapped. For the past few seasons, I’ve rostered both Greg Olsen and Tyler Eifert, up until this summer when I swapped 32-year-old Olsen for 25-year-old Kevin White straight up. Will it pay off? Perhaps not. But I also knew that without a first-round pick in this year’s rookie draft, I wasn’t landing a receiver with White’s potential ceiling.
Falling for recency bias
With dynasty formats, we are afforded the luxury of looking through the long lens, and that presents a rather unique opportunity in terms of valuation compared to redraft. For example, coming off a dreadful 2016 campaign with Brock Osweiler, DeAndre Hopkins is a tougher sell as a WR1 in standard leagues, but in dynasty, you’d be investing in a 25-year-old playmaker who could spend the rest of his career making sweet music with Deshaun Watson – the only two-time Manning Award winner who also happened to throw one of the best deep balls in college football this past season.
That’s just one example of how recency bias factors into dynasty outlooks. Coming off that lost season in Philadelphia, DeMarco Murray proved to be a league-winning type of buy-low investment last summer, when he was going in the fourth round of standard drafts and the seventh round of dynasty startups. Ditto Mike Evans after he followed up his 12-TD rookie season with only three scores in Year 2 (yet was still top-10 in yards per route run in 2015). Curiously, Ameer Abdullah’s current ADP as the RB26 would seem to reflect an “injury prone” label, even though last year marked his first significant injury going back to his four years at Nebraska. The Lions even recently confirmed Abdullah as the team’s featured back, and that’s pretty notable for a player who has averaged 5.1 YPC over his past eight games and trailed only David Johnson in elusive rating through the first two weeks of 2016.
Overemphasizing youth
In dynasty, appreciating assets are the name of the game. When historical data suggests that a player’s peak years are behind him – or perhaps that player is facing a cloudy outlook due to new scheme or surrounding personnel – his dynasty stock takes a hit (as does his trade value). We know that running backs and receivers peak around age 26, while tight ends and quarterbacks can often maintain elite production later into their careers. My tendency to draft for youth and upside has been abundantly apparent in our fantasy staff’s mock draft series.
However, one draft trap that I sometimes fall into is not mixing in enough stable veteran options, particularly when the value is right. After all, we need to be able to field weekly lineups with guys who are actually logging significant snaps now, and those “boring” vets provide invaluable depth to a dynasty roster. So, yeah, go ahead and put a big gold star next to Marlon Mack’s name, but Frank Gore’s 13th-round dynasty ADP is also pretty nice value to land a starting RB on a team that generated the highest percentage of rushing yards before contact last season.
Neglecting the pipeline
There’s no room for complacency in dynasty, nor is there any such thing as ever having a “complete” team – even for the league champion. As such, our mindset is to always be building a pipeline to maintain continuity from year to year. Rashad Jennings may have helped many a fantasy playoff push in 2015. But given his advanced age, dynasty owners who didn’t target Paul Perkins (PFF’s most elusive back in the 2016 draft class) late in drafts last summer missed out on what now looks to be a three-down workhorse for the Giants.
Whereas fantasy owners in redraft leagues often carry only one quarterback, dynasty rosters are larger, which leaves precious few options on the waiver wire when help is needed. Rostering multiple QBs, or even a third, young developmental-type, often comes in handy (especially if your starter is in his twilight years). I certainly don’t regret drafting Marcus Mariota with pick 2.09 in a 2015 rookie draft, despite having recently traded for Ben Roethlisberger. Hopefully, Mariota will be entering elite territory by the time Roethlisberger steps off the stage.
Even rarer is the waiver wire pickup who carries your dynasty squad to the Promised Land. David Johnson may have been there for the taking in your redraft league for some of his rookie year, but he was gone by the second round of rookie-only drafts earlier that summer. And while I might someday regret that aforementioned Olsen trade, the strategy was to recoup some value while I still could, move Eifert into the starting lineup, and continue to build the pipeline with someone like Njoku with the 12th overall pick in my league’s rookie draft.
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