Fantasy Football: What happens the season after a running back gets 400 touches?

There’s an idea in the fantasy football community that running backs are poised to crumble the season after handling a particularly large workload. Some have pointed to 370 carries as the threshold, but others say 400 touches is the point of no return for the position.

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Recent examples of Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry collapsing due to injuries after particularly high-volume seasons have added fuel to this fire. The lifespan of highly productive running backs is certainly shorter than other positions, so perhaps squeezing multiple years' worth of usage into one single season accelerates the decline of running backs.

We’ll go ahead and roll with the 400-touch number because it truly is out of the ordinary. Workhorse running backs are less common than ever in the year 2021, but even then there’s only been an average of 6.8 running backs clear 300 touches in the regular season since 2010.

Elevating the touch count to 400 will also cover the overwhelming majority of 370 rush attempt cases — differentiating carries from receptions seems rather arbitrary. We’ll also include the playoffs in each year’s total considering, you know, hits hurt the same — if not more — in January as they do in September.

PFF data stretches back to 2006, so we will, too. Going back further threatens to take us into a different time medically. It’s tough to put much stock into how a running back bounced back from a large workload in the 1980s after Cam Akers just returned from a freaking Achilles injury in half a year.

The following table denotes all 21 backs with 400 touches since 2006 along with their PPR fantasy rank, as well as their following season’s games, touches and PPR rank.

Year	Name	Team	Touches	PPR Rank	Next-Year's Games	Next-Year's Touches	Next-Year's PPR Rank
2020	Derrick Henry	Titans	418	3	9	257	23
2019	Derrick Henry	Titans	409	5	17	418	3
2019	Christian McCaffrey	Panthers	403	1	3	76	54
2018	Ezekiel Elliott	Cowboys	433	5	16	355	3
2017	Le'Veon Bell	Steelers	431	2	0 (holdout)	0	N/A
2016	Le'Veon Bell	Steelers	405	3	16	431	2
2014	DeMarco Murray	Cowboys	497	2	15	237	15
2013	Marshawn Lynch	Seahawks	403	5	19	385	4
2012	Arian Foster	Texans	460	3	8	143	46
2012	Adrian Peterson	Vikings	411	1	14	308	10
2012	Ray Rice	Ravens	410	4	15	272	22
2011	Ray Rice	Ravens	414	1	20	410	4
2010	Rashard Mendenhall	Steelers	412	11	15	246	22
2010	Ray Rice	Ravens	411	5	18	414	1
2009	Chris Johnson	Titans	407	1	16	360	7
2008	Michael Turner	Falcons	401	4	11	183	34
2007	LaDainian Tomlinson	Chargers	410	2	17	349	5
2006	Larry Johnson	Chiefs	475	3	8	188	36
2006	Steven Jackson	Rams	435	2	12	274	15
2006	LaDainian Tomlinson	Chargers	428	1	19	410	2
2006	Tiki Barber	Giants	413	6	0 (retired)	0	N/A

Some Key Takeaways

Just five of the 19 applicable running backs failed to play at least 14 games

This doesn’t mean each and every player was as productive the following year, but this 26% rate of anything resembling a major injury, alone, seems like enough to fade the idea of a single-season workload cliff at the position.