• WR Garrett Wilson, New York Jets vs. CB Asante Samuel Jr., Los Angeles Chargers: Wilson is a high-volume WR1 against Los Angeles.

• WR Joshua Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers vs. CB D.J. Reed Jr., New York Jets: The banged-up Palmer cannot be started against New York’s league-best cornerback trio.

• Dominate your fantasy league in 2023: For up-to-date fantasy draft rankings and projections, check out PFF’s fantasy rankings tool!

Estimated Reading Time: 10 minutes

Knowing when an NFL wide receiver has an advantageous or disadvantageous cornerback matchup is critical for fantasy football start-sit decisions. This article details six players who should either be started with confidence or avoided at all costs, thanks in part to their primary defensive counterpart for Week 9.

3 Wide Receivers to Target

WR Garrett Wilson, New York Jets vs. CB Asante Samuel Jr., Los Angeles Chargers

New York wide receiver Garrett Wilson (79.0 PFF receiving grade) gets a dreamy matchup against Los Angeles’ bottom-tier cornerback unit. Wilson’s Week 9 half-points-per-reception WR1 status is cemented by the league’s premier first-read-target role and sufficient quarterback play.

The game’s 41.5-point FanDuel over/under is Week 9’s sixth-highest game total.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives New York a -16.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, but the team signed two-time defending Pro Bowl guard Rodger Saffold (49.8 PFF 2022 pass-blocking grade) on Tuesday.

Wilson runs routes at a 38.5% wide-left pre-snap alignment plurality, signaling frequent access to struggling Chargers No. 1 cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. (85.6 PFF perimeter coverage grade). Wilson’s 27.9% slot rate and 33.6% wide-right rates create ample opportunities for Wilson to feast against slot cornerback Ja’Sir Taylor (44.0 PFF slot-coverage grade) and No. 2 cornerback Michael Davis (52.9 PFF perimeter coverage grade).

Former Los Angeles cornerback J.C. Jackson (34.1 PFF coverage grade) has been absent from the lineup since Week 2. Among 64 perimeter cornerbacks with at least 45 wide receiver coverage snaps in Weeks 3-8, Samuel ranks outside the top 50 in both yards allowed per coverage snap (3.23) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (7.3%).

New York quarterback Zach Wilson (55.5 PFF passing grade) effectively managed games in Weeks 4-8, with head coach Robert Saleh running the passing attack almost entirely through the offense’s No. 1 wide receiver. The pass-catching Wilson’s 37.9% first-read target rate ranks first among 114 NFL wide receivers with at least 10 first-read targets during that span. His 39 qualifying first-read targets tie for fourth.

Among 37 NFL wide receivers with at least 150 receiving snaps in Weeks 4-8, Wilson ranks 13th or better in both yards per route run (2.00) and missed tackles forced receiving (three).

Among 33 NFL quarterbacks with at least 85 passing attempts in Weeks 4-8, Zach Wilson ties for 20th in big-time throw rate (3.5%), ranks ninth in turnover-worthy play rate (1.8%) and places 19th in average time to throw (2.81 seconds).

Wilson is a Week 9 half-PPR WR1.

WR Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts vs. CB C.J. Henderson, Carolina Panthers

Indianapolis No. 1 wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (69.6 PFF receiving grade) is a half-PPR WR1 against Carolina’s dreadful perimeter cornerbacks. Pittman’s high-volume role and improving target quality create the potential for a season-best performance.

Update 11/3/23: Indianapolis’ No. 2 wide receiver Josh Downs (74.9 PFF receiving grade) suffered a knee injury in Thursday’s practice, producing a Limited Participant practice designation. Downs was able to practice again on Friday (designation unknown), but any in-game limitations for Downs would further increase Pittaman Jr.’s already-elite target-earning role.

The game’s 44.5-point FanDuel over/under is Week 9’s fourth-highest game total, and Indianapolis is implied to score 23.5 points.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Indianapolis a 5.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, tying for Week 9’s 10th-best mark. Carolina two-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Brian Burns (75.0 PFF pass-rush grade, elbow injury) is currently limited to a part-time role.

Panthers strong safety Vonn Bell (59.7 PFF coverage grade) has yet to resume practicing following his Week 6 quadriceps injury.

Pittman ranks in the top 12 in both first-read targets (52) and total targets (73) among NFL wide receivers and is one of just three such players with at least 10 first-read red-zone targets.

The term “splash zone” denotes the area of the field located 10-plus yards downfield and between the grass or turf’s painted numbers. It yields significantly higher per-target fantasy-point value than targets occurring along the sideline, at the same targeted depth, due to the increased probability of generating explosive pass plays. The splash zone was first studied by Underdog Fantasy’s Hayden Winks (then at Rotoworld) and later received its moniker from Legendary Upside’s Pat Kerrane.

Pittman totaled just one splash-zone target in Weeks 1-5, but head coach Shane Steichen smartly corrected the issue in Week 6, sending five Pittman's way against the Tennessee Titans (62.6 PFF coverage grade). His nine splash-zone target total ties for 20th among NFL wide receivers, and his 29.5 yards per splash-zone reception ranks first among 36 NFL wide receivers with at least eight splash-zone targets.

Pittman's 37.2% wide-right pre-snap alignment plurality and 33.6% wide-left rate give him access to both left cornerback C.J. Henderson (29.3 PFF perimeter coverage grade) and right cornerback Donte Jackson (38.2 PFF perimeter coverage grade). Among 62 NFL cornerbacks with at least 65 perimeter wide receiver coverage snaps, Henderson and Jackson both rank outside of the top 50 in catch rate (81.5% and 71.4%, respectively) yards allowed per coverage snap (3.23 and 3.48, respectively) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (8.3% and 8.0%, respectively).

Pittman Jr. is a locked-in WR1.

WR Demario Douglas, New England Patriots vs. CB Danny Johnson, Washington Commanders

New England sixth-round rookie slot receiver Demario Douglas’ (73.5 PFF slot receiving grade) wide receiver corps takeover is accelerated by X-wide receiver DeVante Parker’s (58.2 PFF receiving grade) Week 8 concussion and de facto No. 1 wide receiver Kendrick Bourne’s (69.7 PFF receiving grade) Week 8 season-ending ACL tear. Washington slot cornerback Danny Johnson (58.7 PFF slot coverage grade) offers little resistance to Douglas’ Week 9 WR2 aspirations.

FanDuel implies New England to score 22.0 points.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives New England a -3.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating, but Washington traded away starting edge rushers Montez Sweat (67.2 PFF pass-rush grade) and Chase Young (79.7 PFF pass-rush grade) at the trade deadline.

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart projects Douglas to face Johnson on 18 of 22 receiving snaps and gives Douglas a good 79.3 receiving matchup advantage rating.

Douglas’ eight first-read targets and two green zone first-read targets led all New England pass-catchers in Weeks 7-8.

Offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien has done well to involve Douglas as both a splash-zone weapon and run-game contributor. Douglas’ five splash-zone targets rank first among active New England wide receivers, and he has impressively produced a 100.0% explosive pass plays rate on three splash-zone receptions.

Among 33 NFL wide receivers with at least three rushing attempts, Douglas’ 9.7 yards per rushing attempt ranks fifth and his 7.7 yards after contact per rushing attempt ranks No. 1.

Among 35 cornerbacks with at least 35 slot coverage snaps, Johnson’s yards allowed per coverage snap (2.05) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (7.1%) both rank outside of the top 25. His 75.0% catch rate allowed ties for 21st.

Douglas has Week 9 WR2 upside.

3 Wide Receivers to Avoid

WR Joshua Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers vs. CB D.J. Reed Jr., New York Jets

Banged-up No. 2 wide receiver Joshua Palmer (67.4 PFF receiving grade) is a back-end half-PPR WR4 against New York’s league-best cornerback trio.

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart projects Palmer to face No. 2 perimeter cornerback D.J. Reed Jr. (75.2 PFF perimeter-coverage grade) on 14 of 39 receiving snaps due to Palmer’s 37.7% wide-left pre-snap alignment plurality, giving him a poor 20.6 receiving matchup advantage rating. Palmer’s 29.6% slot rate and 32.3% wide-right rate do him no favors; PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Palmer respectively poor 10.3 and average 45.6 receiving matchup advantage ratings against New York slot cornerback Michael Carter II (70.2 PFF slot-coverage grade) and No. 1 perimeter cornerback Sauce Gardner (76.7 PFF perimeter-coverage grade).

Field-stretching Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams (73.5 PFF receiving grade, 12.4-yard average depth of target, 28.0% deep-target rate) suffered a season-ending Week 3 ACL tear. Palmer (13.7-yard average depth of target, 26.3% deep-target rate) admirably attempts to fill Williams’ shoes, but Palmer’s 1.59 yards per route run, 60.5% catch rate and 0.09 missed tackles forced per reception fall well short of Williams’ respective 2.33, 76.0% and 0.21 rates.

Among 67 cornerbacks with at least 30 perimeter wide receiver coverage snaps on passes thrown 10-plus yards downfield, Reed’s 1.87 yards allowed per coverage snap ties for 15th. Among the same group, Gardner’s 1.50 yards allowed per coverage snap ranks eighth and his 5.6% explosive pass plays allowed rate ties for 12th.

Among 25 cornerbacks with at least 25 slot coverage snaps on passes thrown 10-plus yards downfield, Carter’s 37.5% catch rate allowed and 1.11 yards allowed per coverage snap both rank sixth.

Palmer should not be trusted to return top-36 half-PPR value in Week 9.

WR George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, Tennessee Titans

Pittsburgh wide receiver George Pickens (75.4 PFF receiving grade) has returned to his boom-or-bust downfield role with No. 1 wide receiver Diontae Johnson (77.7 PFF receiving grade, hamstring strain) back in the lineup over the past two weeks. Pittsburgh’s low-volume offense features systemic concerns, including a porous offensive line (43.5 PFF pass-blocking grade) and a Week 8 rib injury suffered by quarterback Kenny Pickett (61.6 PFF passing grade). Pickens has devolved from a reliable half-PPR WR2 into a highly volatile WR4.

The game’s 36.5-point FanDuel over/under is Week 9’s lowest game total.

PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart gives Pittsburgh a -4.0% pass-blocking matchup advantage rating. Among 33 NFL interior defenders with at least 180 pass-rushing snaps, Tennessee interior defender Jeffery Simmons (83.7 PFF pass-rush grade) ranks in the top six in sacks (5.0), pass-rush win rate (15.8%), quarterback pressure rate (13.6%) and pass-rush productivity (7.9).

Tennessee edge rushers Arden Key (65.0 PFF pass-rush grade, 2.5 sacks) and Denico Autry (61.5 PFF pass-rush grade, 4.5 sacks) both rank in the top 32 in sacks among 34 edge rushers with at least 180 pass-rushing snaps.

Per Doctor of Physical Therapy Edwin Porras, NFL quarterbacks who suffer a rib injury experience a 40.0% passing attempt decrease in the first week of play following the injury event. This bodes poorly for Pittsburgh’s passing offense, as their 61.3 offensive plays per game average ranks 28th this season.

Head coach Mike Tomlin deploys Pickens in a pure field-stretcher role with Johnson active and transitions Pickens to an intermediate weapon when Johnson misses time.

The table below compares Pickens’ Weeks 1, 7 and 8 receiving data (with Johnson active) against Pickens’ Weeks 2-6 receiving data (with Johnson inactive).

Pickens’ 43.9% wide-left pre-snap alignment rate in Weeks 1, 7 and 8 and corresponding 43.1% wide-right rate signal a 40.0%-plus one-on-one matchup against Sean Murphy-Bunting (74.6 PFF perimeter coverage grade), Tennessee’s best perimeter cornerback. Among 62 cornerbacks with at least 65 perimeter wide receiver coverage snaps, Murphy-Bunting ranks in the top six in both yards allowed per coverage snap (1.23) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (2.2%).

PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart gives Pickens a below-average 42.8 receiving matchup advantage rating against Murphy-Bunting.

Pickens profiles as a low-volume, boom/bust WR4 in a poor Week 9 matchup.

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks vs. CB Arthur Maulet, Baltimore Ravens

First-round rookie slot receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba has played very well in recent weeks, but D.K. Metcalf’s (79.0 PFF receiving grade, hip/ribs) return to the lineup signals a 70.0%-plus receiving-snap matchup against Baltimore’s lockdown slot defensive back tandem. Baltimore cornerback Arthur Maulet (62.7 PFF coverage grade) and safety Kyle Hamilton (76.1 PFF coverage grade) render Smith-Njigba a shaky half-PPR WR4/5.

Smith-Njigba ran routes at a 45.8% slot pre-snap alignment rate with Metcalf out of the lineup in Week 7 (63.6 PFF receiving grade, 2.74 yards per route run), but his 72.7% slot rate in Weeks 6 and 8 accurately reflect his intended role in head coach Pete Carroll’s offense.

While Smith-Njigba’s play has significantly improved since Weeks 1-5 (50.1 PFF receiving grade), he has yet to rise to a matchup-proof level.

The table below ranks in parentheses Smith-Njigba’s Weeks 6-8 receiving data among 31 NFL slot receivers with at least 40 slot snaps during that span.

The table below ranks in parentheses Maulet's and Hamilton's slot receiver-coverage data among 31 defensive backs with at least 50 slot coverage snaps.

Smith-Njigba should be left on Week 9 fantasy football benches.