Fantasy Football: Week 5 WR/CB matchups and TE breakdown

We're on to Week 5! I'll be breaking down the WR/CB matchups all season long with a focus on figuring out who could be facing shadow coverage as well as the best and worst overall situations. We'll also briefly touch on each team's TE group.

The following tables denote snap rate data by alignment, target share, air yard market share, yards per route run and yards allowed per coverage snap.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Buccaneers Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: The Buccaneers have a laundry list of injuries on offense at the moment:

• • Mike Evans (ankle)
  • Scotty Miller (hip, groin)
  • Justin Watson (chest)
  • Chris Godwin (hamstring)
  • Leonard Fournette (ankle)
  • LeSean McCoy (ankle)
  • O.J. Howard (Achilles)

Godwin could be out multiple weeks, and I’d refrain from taking a chance on either Miller or Watson due to the potential for limited snaps and a reduced performance.

Evans is an auto-start wide receiver if active. He hurt his ankle early in Week 4 and managed to tough it out to the tune of a 7-122-1 receiving line. This is a solid secondary; only the Cardinals, the Chiefs and the Football Team have allowed fewer PPR per game to opposing wide receivers this season. Still, Evans is matchup-proof and will have a 5-inch height and 30-pound weight advantage against anyone the Bears try to cover him with.

TE breakdown: The absence of Howard means that Cam Brate should see more action inside two-tight end sets. Rob Gronkowski remains locked in as the starting tight end; he’s posted 77%, 69%, 93% and 86% snap rates over the first four weeks of the season. Gronk has yet to surpass 50 yards in a game, but he could demand more targets than ever due to the offense’s aforementioned skill-position injuries. I’m treating Gronk as an upside TE2 who has looked healthier and in better game shape over the past two weeks.

Bears Offense

Projected shadow matchups: Allen Robinson vs. Carlton Davis

WR/CB breakdown: Nick Foles’ target distribution through 5.5 quarters has been as follows:

• • Allen Robinson: 16 targets
  • Darnell Mooney: 13
  • Jimmy Graham: 12
  • David Montgomery: 10
  • Anthony Miller: 7

Robinson is the PPR WR13 despite the Bears’ general inability to get anything established on offense this season. Continue to lock him into starting lineups; A-Rob is truly one of the league’s finest talents at the wideout position.

Free Allen Robinson pic.twitter.com/xIUwZg6OKC

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 5, 2020

Mooney’s snap rate has increased every week. He’s playing more than any receiver other than Robinson. The results haven’t been good, though: Mooney ranks 101st in yards per route run among 169 qualified players this season. The rookie might just be the No. 2 pass-game option moving forward, but expecting anything resembling consistent production from anybody other than Robinson in this offense seems like a pipe dream at the moment.

The Bears’ slot receiver has looked like the team’s second-best pass-catcher for the better part of the past three seasons, but he’s not a realistic fantasy option as long as he’s being utilized as the No. 5 pass-game option inside of the league’s 25th-ranked scoring offense.

TE breakdown: Graham doesn’t possess any sort of yardage upside; he has one game with over 100 yards since 2016. However, he’ll remain a touchdown-dependent TE2 as long as the Bears continue to force-feed him the ball in the red zone. Overall, Graham is tied for fifth with four end-zone targets through one month of action. I’d rather start the likes of Eric Ebron (my TE14) and Logan Thomas (TE15) over Graham (TE16).

Los Angeles Rams at Washington Football Team

Rams Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: The good news: Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are soaking up the majority of the Rams’ target share in a manner that’s rare across the league. Overall, the Rams are one of just 10 offenses that feature two pass-game options with a target share of at least 20%.

The problem for the Rams’ top-two wideouts is that their target share hasn’t consisted of overwhelming volume. The Rams are clearly not asking Jared Goff to win games in the same way they have in previous seasons:

• • 2017: 31.8 pass attempts per game
  • 2018: 35.1
  • 2019: 39.1
  • 2020: 30.5

Throw in a 5.7% deep-ball rate that is barely above Drew Brees (5.4%), and we have an offense low on overall and fantasy-friendly pass-game volume.

Both Woods (PPR WR18) and Kupp (WR14) are capable of continuing to function as low-ceiling WR2 options; just realize that the potential for both to reach WR1 heights seems slim at best. Their Week 5 matchup against the Football Team’s league-best defense in fewest PPR per game allowed to the wideout position isn’t great, nor is the projected positive game script. Treat both as top-24, not top-12, options at the position.

Josh Reynolds (53% snaps) worked well ahead of Van Jefferson (5%) in Week 4, but No. 2 tight end Gerald Everett (58%) was more involved than both. None of these complementary pass-game options are worthy of fantasy consideration inside of the league’s third-most run-heavy offense.

TE breakdown: Tyler Higbee has caught 13-of-15 targets for 155 yards and a trio of scores through four weeks of action. The overall PPR TE8, Higbee continues to play a near every-snap role, but consistent targets behind Kupp and Woods have been tough to come by. We know Higbee is capable of great heights, and the Football Team didn’t exactly slow down the likes of Dallas Goedert (8-101-1), Mark Andrews (3-57-2) or Zach Ertz (3-18-1) this season. Still, volume remains key in fantasy football, and Higbee doesn’t have enough of it to warrant more than low-end TE1 treatment.

Football Team Offense

Projected shadow matchups: Terry McLaurin vs. Jalen Ramsey

WR/CB breakdown: Kyle Allen was objectively awful in 2019:

• • PFF passing grade: 52.9 (No. 40 among 44 qualified QBs)
  • Completion rate: 62% (tied for No. 27)
  • Adjusted completion rate: 73.3% (tied for No. 24)
  • Yards per attempt: 6.8 (No. 28)
  • Passer rating: 80.0 (No. 36)

The Panthers had the league’s single-worst rate of catchable passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield. As such, Allen single-handedly prevented Curtis Samuel from balling the hell out in 2019. That’s great that coach Ron Rivera thinks this team can compete right now, but don’t expect their new quarterback to be set up for success as long as 1) their offensive line remains a train wreck, and 2) offensive “weapons” consist of a 2019 third-round pick that luckily turned out to be a baller and a 2020 third-round pick that the coaching staff continues to play behind J.D. McKissic.

McLaurin is the PPR WR11 at the moment; Allen enabled D.J. Moore to PPR WR16 heights in 2019. Don’t expect the artist known as F1 to fall off, but it’s also not reasonable to anticipate a massive boom in performance. McLaurin is my PPR WR13 this week and should continue to be started in fantasy leagues of all shapes and sizes. I’d be more concerned with the potential Ramsey shadow date if Washington wasn’t doing such a good job of getting McLaurin yards after the catch. Overall, only Alvin Kamara (305) has more yards after the catch than McLaurin (208) through four weeks.

Stay far away from these other wideouts.

TE breakdown: Logan Thomas is tied for seventh in targets among all tight ends but ranks 21st at the position in fantasy points. He’s worthy of a bench spot and TE2 treatment with his every-down role and proven target share; just don’t count on this offense enabling more than McLaurin and Antonio Gibson as potential high-end fantasy assets.

Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans

Bills Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Through four weeks, Josh Allen has managed to enable each of Stefon Diggs (PPR WR5), Cole Beasley (WR26) and John Brown (WR33) to solid performances. We’ve even seen flashes from Gabriel Davis, who could start in three-receiver sets if Beasley (foot) is too banged up to suit up.

Ultimately, the passing game should flow through Diggs and Brown more weeks than not. They rank 12th and 26th, respectively, in air yards and are set up well against a Titans secondary that remains exploitable with Adoree’ Jackson (knee) sidelined.

Josh Allen is averaging career-best marks across the board in 2020 as a passer; continue to lock in Diggs as a WR1 and Brown as an upside WR3 ahead of this smashable matchup.

TE breakdown: Dawson Knox returned from the concussion protocol in Week 4 but played just 48% of the offense’s snaps en route to posting a 2-16-0 receiving line. None of the tight ends in this offense have the sort of target share to warrant fantasy consideration at the moment.

Titans Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: A.J. Brown (knee) reportedly has a chance to suit up this week, but it remains to be seen if the Titans’ No. 1 wideout will be able to handle a full allotment of snaps.

He needs to be in starting fantasy lineups if active; he truly looked like one of the game’s better talents at the wide receiver position as a rookie.

A.J. Brown is your favorite WR's favorite WR pic.twitter.com/5U1mAcm0YZ

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 25, 2020

It’s tough to get too excited about these other options. Corey Davis (COVID) and Adam Humphries (COVID) will both be sidelined if this game winds up happening. The Bills' defense has yet to truly figure things out; this run-first offense just doesn’t boast enough concentrated target share to confidently project any member for a big afternoon.

Kalif Raymond is the best dart throw of the bunch due to his deep-ball chemistry with Ryan Tannehill. Even then, his 27% snap rate in Week 3 was hardly encouraging. Look for this offense to continue to flow heavily through Derrick Henry and Jonnu Smith while Brown remains sidelined.

TE breakdown: Smith has seven, five and eight targets this season. He surpassed the five-target threshold on just three occasions during the 2017-2019 seasons. He is the league’s second-best after-the-catch monster at the position, behind only George Kittle, so continue to fire up Smith as an every-week fantasy TE1. Only the Falcons, Saints and Eagles have allowed more PPR per game to the position this season.

Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers

Eagles Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: I truthfully hadn't heard of Travis Fulgham before he caught a go-ahead 42-yard score in Week 4. Greg Ward (4-38-0) had a team-high seven targets last Sunday night with Dallas Goedert (ankle, IR) and DeSean Jackson (hamstring) sidelined. The potential for Alshon Jeffery (foot) to return to action in Week 5 throws another wrench into projecting this passing game.

Nobody has more turnover-worthy plays than Carson Wentz (14) through four weeks. The Eagles’ starting quarterback is playing with reckless abandon at the moment and taking off to scramble more than ever. The team has a plethora of running backs and tight ends that they also keep involved in the passing game, keeping the wide receiver position’s overall target share low inside of this dreadful offense.

Oh, and they’re playing the league’s single-best defense at pressuring the quarterback. Don’t start any of these receivers in fantasy leagues of all shapes and sizes. Not even if there’s a fire.

TE breakdown: Zach Ertz has posted 3-18-1, 5-42-0, 7-70-0 and 4-9-0 receiving lines to start the season. The PPR TE18 should see enough volume to get back to top-12 heights, but he’s hardly locked in as a top-five option at the position. The tight end position is thin after the big-four talents; continue to start Ertz despite his underwhelming (to put it nicely) start to the season.

Steelers Offense

Projected shadow matchups: Diontae Johnson vs. Darius Slay

WR/CB breakdown: Johnson is good to go after clearing the concussion protocol. The potential matchup against Slay (ankle) won’t make life easy, but the Steelers’ most-targeted receiver should still be treated as a top-20 option at the position. If you have a start/sit question regarding Johnson, that means your wide receiver position is in great shape.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (4-43-1) scored the easiest touchdown of his life in Week 3 on an unguarded crosser, but he truly doesn’t appear to be operating near 100% at the moment. Not practicing due to a knee injury, JuJu is toughing it out, but it’s concerning to see his snaps hit a season-low 72% mark in Week 3, and his 6.3 targets per game are a far cry from the 10.4 pass-game opportunities per week he had back in 2018.

Complicating matters for the upside of this passing game is the reality that Big Ben isn’t operating as the same gunslinger we’ve seen for the better part of the last decade:

• • 2020: 7.6 yard average target depth
  • 2019: 8.1
  • 2018: 8.4
  • 2017: 10.1
  • 2016: 9.6
  • 2015: 10.5
  • 2014: 9.3
  • 2013: 8.9
  • 2012: 8.9
  • 2011: 10.2
  • 2010: 10.5

The 2020 Steelers passing game appears to be a far cry from the world-beating units we saw for the better part of the past decade. Chase Claypool continues to flash with his limited opportunities, although James Washington remains plenty involved.

I have Johnson (PPR WR19) and JuJu (WR20) as top-24 options at the position this week; just keep overall expectations in check and realize that 2018 numbers likely aren’t on the horizon.

TE breakdown: Eric Ebron has started and played at least 75% of the offense’s snaps in consecutive weeks, catching eight of 12 targets for 95 yards and a score along the way. Weekly TE1 production is unlikely, and Vance McDonald remains involved, but Ebron’s disappointing 1-18-0 line is in the rear-view mirror. I’m tentatively treating him as an upside TE2 with this newfound usage increase against an Eagles defense that hasn’t come close to containing the likes of George Kittle (15-183-1), Tyler Higbee (5-54-3) and Logan Thomas (4-37-1).

Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets

Cardinals Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Murray’s passing efficiency has regressed in 2020; he's currently averaging just 6.1 yards per attempt after being good for 6.7 in 2019. Still, Murray actually has a higher PFF passing grade, average target depth and adjusted completion rate in 2020.

The problem has largely been the work of the Cardinals’ underwhelming WR room (with all due respect to DeAndre Hopkins). The Cardinals’ average of 4.4 yards after the catch per reception ranks 22nd; their 5.5 mark in 2019 was tied for 13th.

Murray is plenty capable of throwing downfield, although the offense’s 40% catchable-deep-ball rate is a bit lower than their 48% mark from 2019. He deserves some blame as well.

No corner in the league should be favored in a matchup against Hopkins; he remains fantasy’s No. 1 WR until we get a healthy Michael Thomas back in action.

It’s the other options that are concerning. Kirk has caught just 6-of-14 targets for 76 yards and a score. Fitzgerald has posted Jordan Howard-esque 1-0-0 and 2-4-0 receiving lines over the past two weeks. Andy Isabella easily leads the team in targets but can’t even get 50% of the offense’s snaps. 

I’d be most willing to throw a dart at Kirk this week. Only Calvin Ridley (18.7) has a higher average target depth than Kirk (17.9) among 169 players with at least 10 pass-game opportunities this season. The Jets have hardly contained the likes of Tim Patrick (6-113-1), Stefon Diggs (8-86-0), John Brown (6-70-1) and Jerry Jeudy (2-61-1) through four weeks; Murray is too good to play this poorly as a passer for much longer. 

TE breakdown: Dan Arnold (54% snaps) caught all four of his targets for 39 scoreless yards last week but ultimately is still splitting reps with Darrell Daniels (47%). He’s only a realistic fantasy option in small-DFS slates.

Jets Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Crowder looked fully healthy in Week 4 despite pre-game reports indicating quite the opposite. Either way, the Jets’ No. 1 WR has started his season with 7-115-1 and 7-104-0 performances, has next to zero competition for targets and finds himself in an offense that should continue to prioritize the slot WR. Sam Darnold (shoulder) will be replaced by Joe Flacco this week, but coach Adam Gase has prioritized feeding the slot throughout his coaching career:

• 2013: Wes Welker (8.5 targets per game)
• 2014: Welker (4.6)
• 2015: Eddie Royal (5.6)
• 2016: Jarvis Landry (8.2)
• 2017: Landry (10.1)
• 2018: Danny Amendola (5.3)
• 2019: Jamison Crowder (7.6)
• 2020: Crowder (11.5)

Peterson has never made a habit of chasing receivers into the slot; fire up Crowder as a top-30 option at the position. And with all due respect to Smith’s 7-81-0 performance in Week 4, stay the hell away from this offense otherwise.

TE breakdown: I’m not going to let one ugly (and I mean ugly) drop from Chris Herndon shake my belief that he’s a great football player, but obviously the ship has sailed on anything resembling viable fantasy production. The Jets’ starting TE has a putrid 11-74-0 line on 19 targets through four weeks and routinely spends far too much time pass blocking.

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

Raiders Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: The Raiders posted the following target distribution in Week 4 with both Henry Ruggs III (knee) and Bryan Edwards (ankle) sidelined:

• Darren Waller: 12
• Renfrow: 8
• Jones: 6
• Agholor: 4
• Jalen Richard: 4
• Josh Jacobs: 4
• Jason Witten: 2
• Alec Ingold: 2
• Foster Moreau: 1

Agholor (4-44-1) would’ve had an even bigger day if his 55-yard TD wasn’t wiped off the board due to an illegal formation penalty. Renfrow has underrated after-the-catch skills to go along with his always-pristine route-running ability. Jones exists.

None of these WRs are realistic season-long options this week other than Renfrow, who is a thin WR4 option. However, I don’t hate stacking a too-cheap Derek Carr with Waller and one of the group in tournaments; Agholor ($3,600 on DraftKings) is a reasonable low-priced dart throw. Jacobs is the only sure-thing option against a Chiefs defense that has been far better against the pass than against the run.

TE breakdown: Waller (39 targets) joins Travis Kelce (32) as the league’s most-used options at the position. The Raiders’ undisputed No. 1 pass-game target is a weekly top-four TE regardless of the matchup. While this Chiefs secondary might be underrated, Waller didn’t have too many issues with them in 2019 on his way to posting 6-63-0 and 7-100-0 performances.

Chiefs Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Patrick Mahomes has posted a 11:1 TD:INT ratio in four career matchups against the Raiders. The likes of Drew Brees (312 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT), Josh Allen (288, 2, 0), Teddy Bridgewater (288, 2, 0) and Cam Newton (162, 1, 1) didn’t consistently ball out against this defense, but injuries to corners Damon Arnette (thumb, IR) and Lawson (foot) should help matters for the league’s most explosive passing game.

Hill has scored in every game this season and appears just as ridiculously fast as ever. The PPR WR4 through four weeks, Mahomes’ No. 1 WR is a threat to almost single-handedly take over any game. Don’t expect his 13-game streak without at least 100 receiving yards and a score to last much longer; it’s the longest-such instance since his rookie season.

And then we have Watkins, who hasn’t reached even 65 receiving yards or found the end zone since his 7-82-1 performance in Week 1. Of course, this same feat happened in 2019 until Watkins enjoyed plenty of success during the Chiefs’ Super Bowl run. He’s still playing a near every-down role and possesses the potential to boom, but it’s as tough as ever to treat Mahomes’ No. 2 WR as more than a boom-or-bust WR4.

Mecole Hardman continues to make the most out of his limited opportunities. Unfortunately, he’s impossible to trust as anything more than a boom-or-bust flex option as long as he continues to split snaps with Robinson. With that said: try to find room on the fantasy bench for Hardman considering he’s the league’s premier WR handcuff.

TE breakdown: Kelce turned 31 last Monday night, but the four-time defending, undisputed, TE1 champion of fantasy football looks as good as ever. Maybe he’s fallen off just a tad …

• 2020: 1.97 yards per route run (No. 7 among qualified TEs)
• 2019: 2.23 (No. 6)
• 2018: 2.31 (No. 2)
• 2017: 2.03 (No. 4)
• 2016: 2.23 (No. 3)

… but we couldn’t ask for a better situation to elevate the Chiefs’ long-time TE1 as he continues to age. Kelce has posted 5-90-0, 7-107-1, 5-62-0 and 12-168-2 receiving lines in his last four matchups against the Raiders; continue to treat him as fantasy’s No. 1 overall option at the position.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Jaguars Offense

Projected shadow matchups: D.J. Chark vs. Bradley Roby; Laviska Shenault Jr. vs. Vernon Hargreaves III

WR/CB breakdown: The Texans have been asking Roby and Hargreaves to track the offense’s No. 1 and No. 2 outside WR, respectively, this season. The strategy has produced middling results for Roby:

• Adam Thielen: 8 receptions-114 yards-1 TD
• Tyreek Hill: 5-46-1
• Marquise Brown: 5-42-0
• Chase Claypool: 1-24-0

As well as Hargreaves: 

• Justin Jefferson: 4-103-0
• Sammy Watkins: 7-82-1
• James Washington: 5-36-0

I’m not concerned about Chark and Shenault’s ability to win this matchup. The Jaguars’ No. 1 WR, in particular, boasts a big enough height advantage to seemingly be able to win against any of the Texans’ corners with a well enough thrown pass. The Jaguars-Texans (54) boast the week’s fourth-highest game total; don’t count out Gardner Minshew and company’s chances of putting up points on the scoreboard in a hurry.

Note that Chark (85% snaps in Week 4) and Cole (74%) worked ahead of Shenault (54%) and Conley (31%), although it’d make sense if the Jaguars’ talented rookie continues to see more work as the season moves along. Chark is my overall WR15 this week; I prefer the rest of the options as part of contrarian DFS stacks than season-long darts.

TE breakdown: Tyler Eifert (concussion) should be treated like Florida Jimmy Graham if active; a TD-dependent TE2 that likely won’t come close to sniffing the 100-yard mark. James O'Shaughnessy ($3,000) is only in play as a cost-saving punt option on DraftKings if Eifert is ultimately sidelined.

Texans Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Henderson (shoulder) could potentially shadow Fuller, although the Jaguars haven’t consistently asked their rookie to travel with opposing No. 1 WRs to this point.

Make no mistake about it: Fuller is the Texans’ undisputed lead pass-game option. He’s posted 8-112-0, 4-54-1 and 6-108-1 performances in his three games that didn’t consist of limited snaps. Fuller seemed plenty healthy in Week 4 on his way to torching the Vikings’ secondary, and this matchup is another winnable spot considering each of Henderson (No. 66), Herndon (No. 80) and Hayden (No. 101) have ranked poorly in passer rating on targets into their coverage among 117 qualified corners.

Continue to fire up Fuller as an upside WR2. Cobb is more of a low-floor WR4 with six or fewer targets in every game this season. Cooks has been a decoy except when Fuller has been playing banged up. It’s weird to say this, but Fuller is presently the only receiver on the Texans that we can trust. Don’t rely on Cobb or Cooks unless we’re building contrarian DFS tournament lineups.

TE breakdown: Jordan Akins (concussion) could miss Week 5, making Darren Fells a viable streaming option. The plodding 34-year-old TE isn’t going to run by anyone, but he did play 80% of the offense’s snaps last week, and Watson has fed him eight receiving scores in their last 20 regular-season games together. Treat Fells as a slightly more safe than usual TD-dependent TE2 if Akins is ultimately ruled out.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

Bengals Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Joe Burrow is capable of overcoming this horrendous matchup with pure volume, but the Ravens secondary has more or less spelled doom for anyone not named Patrick Mahomes over the past two seasons. This has extended to the WR position: Terry McLaurin (10-118-0) became the first receiver to clear the century mark against the Ravens since they acquired Marcus Peters midway through last season.

AJG is fifth in the league in air yards, Higgins is 16th and Boyd has a team-high 20% target share. All three — even the dusty-version of Green — will have better days ahead, but this simply isn’t the matchup to target. Treat the Bengals’ slot receiver as a borderline WR2 thanks to volume alone, but otherwise, I’d recommend waiting a week before banking on Green and Higgins’ air yards turning into real production.

TE breakdown: It’s a small sample (sorry), but Drew Sample has underwhelmed following his 7-45-0 performance in Week 2. He should’ve caught a TD last week, but instead LB Myles Jack ripped the ball away. Sample is a low-ceiling TE2 in this dreadful matchup.

Ravens Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Hollywood Brown and Lamar Jackson just quite haven’t been on the same page through four weeks.

Sheesh pic.twitter.com/S9q2JiibFM

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 7, 2020

The good news is Brown (26 targets) has worked ahead of Mark Andrews (20) in Jackson’s pecking order. He joins a short list of options that have accounted for over 40% of their offense’s air yards:

• Adam Thielen (47%)
• Odell Beckham Jr. (45%)
• Brown (44%)
• D.J. Moore (44%)
• D.K. Metcalf (40%)

I’ll keep my clown mask close, but I’m continuing to treat Brown as an upside WR2 that is overdue for an explosion.

Boykin is the only player other than Brown or Andrews with more than 10 targets this season. Yet to find the end zone or clear even 40 yards, Boykin remains well off the fantasy radar.

TE breakdown: Andrews’ two-TD performance in Week 4 was a solid reminder of his ceiling after back-to-back scoreless performances with fewer than 30 receiving yards. Continue to treat him as a top-three option at the position, particularly against a secondary he boat raced for 6-99-0 and 6-53-0 performances in 2019.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

Panthers Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: It’s okay to believe both 1) Anderson is capable of continuing to ball out, and 2) Moore’s best days are ahead of him.

Only the Chargers (Keenan Allen 35%, Hunter Henry 20%) and Vikings (Adam Thielen 34%, Justin Jefferson 22%) have a more condensed top-two target share than the Panthers (Robby Anderson 25%, D.J. Moore 24%). Surprisingly, Anderson has seen more action as the offense’s underneath and intermediate threat, while Moore is one of just 11 receivers with at least 400 air yards through four weeks.

The 2020 version of the Panthers offense doesn’t seem as willing to make their RB the focal point of the passing game; look for *both* Anderson and Moore to put up numbers in Week 5 in a potential shootout against a secondary that has allowed the fourth-most yards to opposing WRs through four weeks and is presently all kinds of banged up at the safety position.

Samuel (47% snaps in Week 4) lost snaps to the likes of Pharoh Cooper (26%), Seth Roberts (10%) and Brandon Zylstra (9%). I’m not crying, you’re crying.

TE breakdown: Ian Thomas (58% snaps) actually worked behind Chris Manhertz (77%) in Week 4 despite catching 2-of-5 targets for 5 yards and a score. This sort of usage isn’t going to cut it in fantasy land; we need Thomas to have a full-time role before rolling the dice here.

Falcons Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Jones (hamstring) started off the week with a DNP after re-aggravating his injury on Monday night. The long-time stud WR looked great with the ball in his hands prior to the injury. It’s frustrating to be in this position, but Jones needs to be in starting lineups if healthy enough to suit up regardless of the matchup.

Ridley leads the league in air yards and somehow remains the overall WR1 in fantasy football despite putting up a goose-egg in Week 4. CB Jaire Alexander is never an easy matchup, but Matt Ryan sure didn’t do his receiver any favors throughout the evening. Don’t expect this secondary to give Ridley many problems as long as he gets a high-volume workload. The man has quite literally never busted in 11 career games with at least eight targets:

• 7 receptions-146 yards-3 TDs
• 6-71-1
• 8-93-1
• 8-105-1
• 5-88-1
• 8-143-1
• 6-85-1
• 8-91-0
• 9-130-2
• 7-109-2
• 5-110-0

Gage’s three targets were surprising to see, but don’t expect Olamide Zaccheaus (8-86-0) to get the same sort of garbage-time induced workload moving forward. Gage remains a low-ceiling WR3 option and is set up well against the Panthers’ second-round rookie in the slot. No safety has been targeted more than Chinn (19) this season, and he’s allowed 13 of those looks to be caught for 98 yards and a score.

TE breakdown: Hurst sits as the PPR TE14 after four weeks of action. He’s averaging 5.5 targets per game; don’t expect Austin Hooper’s (7.5) workload to appear anytime soon. The Falcons’ starting TE could feasibly see some more looks if Julio is sidelined, but the majority of this passing game’s production will likely continue to flow through the WR position. Still, I’m down with treating Hurst as a borderline TE1 in a matchup with the week’s third-highest game total

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers

Dolphins Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Ryan Fitzpatrick has fed the following players more than five targets through four weeks:

• Parker: 29 targets
• Ford: 24
• Mike Gesicki: 21
• Myles Gaskin: 20
• Williams: 15
• Jakeem Grant: 9

Parker is the only fantasy-relevant option as long as this offense remains in slow-motion mode. The only FitzMagic that Ryan Fitzpatrick has provided this season is making his trademark YOLO-ball attitude disappear for whatever reason. Overall, only Drew Brees (5.4%) and Daniel Jones (5.4%) have a lower deep-ball rate than Fitz (5.6%).

Parker has caught 24 of 29 targets and is the PPR WR21. The 49ers defense has remained stout despite being all sorts of banged up, but continue to fire up the Dolphins’ undisputed No. 1 pass-game option as a top-24 option at the position.

TE breakdown: Gesicki has posted 3-30-0, 8-130-1, 1-15-1 and 1-15-0 receiving lines this season. Sheesh. The problem is that he’s essentially the offense’s No. 2 slot WR behind Ford, and the No. 3 TE behind Durham Smythe and Adam Shaheen. Gesicki is too talented to stay quiet for long, but he’s certainly more of a borderline TE1 than locked in as a top-eight option. This is particularly true against a 49ers defense that has allowed just 12 of 22 targets to opposing tight ends to be caught for 84 scoreless yards.  

49ers Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: PSA: Aiyuk is a baller.

Brandon Aiyuk out here hurdling like a young Sam McGuffie pic.twitter.com/AM6Er6iMox

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 5, 2020

Any talk of a QB controversy swiftly ended with Nick Mullens’ two-INT performance in Week 4. The 49ers also have over 100 million reasons to continue to stick with Jimmy G. A run-first offense remains the most-likely method of attack, but the presence of George Kittle, Aiyuk and Samuel suddenly presents Garoppolo with plenty of weapons (if active).

The 49ers utilized the following snap rates in their first game with both Samuel and Aiyuk active:

• Aiyuk: 88% snaps
• Kendrick Bourne: 68%
• Trent Taylor: 51%
• Samuel: 34%
• Mohamed Sanu: 10%

Sanu has since been cut. Samuel’s role will obviously increase, but perhaps not at the hands of Aiyuk as some expected. There will likely be somewhat inconsistent production between Samuel and Aiyuk, just like there was between Emmanuel Sanders and Samuel in 2019. Still, both players are extremely talented with the ball in their hands, playing inside of one of the most well-schemed offenses in the league. Treat both receivers as upside WR3s options moving forward that will be useful to help patch up lineups during bye week season.

The Dolphins could really use No. 1 CB Byron Jones (groin) back soon, but either way don’t discount Garoppolo’s potential for 300 yards and multiple scores. 

TE breakdown: Kittle caught all 15 of his targets for 183 yards and a score in Week 4. He also added an eight yard rush, because why not. It’s hard to overstate just how good Kittle looked accomplishing all of this. Among the best YAC-monsters the position has ever seen, Kittle is a top-two TE anytime he’s healthy enough to suit up.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

Giants Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Jones hasn’t thrown a TD since Week 1, and the Giants offense has yet to surpass 16 points.

But hear me out: Jones is playing the Cowboys. The single-most fantasy-friendly matchup for an opposition, Dallas combines the league’s fastest-paced offense with arguably the single-worst defense. The likes of Russell Wilson (315 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT) and Matt Ryan (273, 4, 0) easily had their way with this defense, while Jared Goff (275, 0, 1) and Baker Mayfield (165, 2, 0) were each able to let their team’s respective rushing attacks lead the way.

Only Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow and Carson Wentz have more dropbacks than Jones through four weeks. I’m cautiously optimistic about the Cowboys’ chances of slowing down dusty Devonta Freeman, meaning Jones should again see high-end volume in the passing game.

This means that both Slayton and Tate are in play against probably the league’s single-worst secondary at the moment. Starting corners Chidobe Awuzie (hamstring, IR) and Anthony Brown (ribs, IR) remain sidelined in this clapper-themed revenge game. It’s unlikely the Giants go the rest of the season without finding the end zone through the air, and this week’s matchup is as good a time as any for Slayton and Tate to get back on track. I lean towards Slayton as the better overall WR3, but both can be fired up as upside WR3s in this mouth-watering spot.

TE breakdown: Evan Engram has played at least 80% of the offense’s snaps in every game this season. However, the often-injured TE has a rather-pedestrian 17-131-0 receiving line and is averaging an absurdly-awful 4.4 yards per target. I like Engram’s chances of getting back on track in a big way this week against a Cowboys defense he’s owned throughout his career:

• 2017, Week 1: 4 receptions-44 yards-0 TD
• 2017, Week 13: 4-54-0
• 2018, Week 2: 7-67-1
• 2018, Week 17: 5-81-1
• 2019, Week 1: 11-116-1
• 2019, Week 9: 6-48-0

Cowboys Offense

Projected shadow matchups: Amari Cooper vs. James Bradberry

WR/CB breakdown: Dak Prescott is on pace to throw for an absurd 6,760 yards on 804 attempts after four weeks of action. Both marks would easily shatter existing NFL records. His target distribution through four weeks is as follows:

• Cooper: 49 targets
• Lamb: 28
• Schultz: 28
• Ezekiel Elliott: 28
• Gallup: 20
• Cedrick Wilson: 13
• Noah Brown: 9
• Tony Pollard: 7
• Blake Bell: 5

Cooper is the alpha WR1 and is my overall WR2 on the week. Bradberry has had a great start to the season, but could struggle a bit more than usual against Cooper’s pristine route-running ability.

Gallup (17.6 yards) has the highest average target depth on the team by a whopping 5.5 yards; he’s going to be a bit more of a boom-or-bust option than fantasy managers would prefer, but booms should be on the way soon inside of the league’s most-productive passing attack.

Lamb continues to face cozy matchups from the friendly confines of the slot and gets a Giants defense that looked lost at times against both JuJu Smith-Schuster (6-69-2) and Cooper Kupp (5-69-2). Lamb is the PPR WR15 through four weeks; find room in your starting lineup for him.

Wilson doesn’t possess any standalone value at the moment with all three of the offense’s starting WRs healthy, but he’s arguably the No. 2 handcuff option at the position behind only Mecole Hardman. The Cowboys are operating the league’s fastest-paced offense and can’t stop a nosebleed on defense; anyone even moderately involved in their weekly matchups is a viable fantasy option.

TE breakdown: Robert Tonyan, Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Darren Waller and Noah Fant. That’s your list of tight ends with more PPR points than Schultz through four weeks. It seems unlikely that the Cowboys will feed their slow-footed TE so heavily in games featuring more positive game script, but he’s certainly earned TE1 treatment with his current full-time role. Nobody on the Cowboys has more red-zone targets than Schultz (5) through four weeks.

Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns

Colts Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Philip Rivers has thrown 25, 21 and 29 passes over the past three games after chucking the rock 46 times in Week 1. The Colts have a great defense and are leaning heavily on their beastly offensive line to churn out yards on the ground. This has been an incredibly effective real-life strategy; it’s just not a fantasy-friendly situation for these pass-catchers.

Expect Hilton (22 targets) to pull away from Pascal (19) at some point, but the Colts’ long-time WR1 is presently averaging a career-worst 1.37 yards per route run. The Browns have been a pleasant surprise ever since their Week 1 loss to the Ravens and could certainly keep this game close, but it’s going to be tough to expect consistent production from Hilton even after he inevitably booms one of these weeks.

I like the idea of buying a Hilton bounce-back performance on DraftKings at just $4,900). Still, he’s ranked outside of my top-30 receivers entering Week 5. Let’s see Pascal function as the passing game’s No. 1 option for more than a week before crowning him as a fantasy-relevant option. 

TE breakdown: I love Mo Alie-Cox, you love Mo Alie-Cox, the Colts don’t love Mo Alie-Cox. PFF’s leader in yards per route run has posted 5-111-0, 3-50-1 and 1-13-1 lines over the past three weeks and is the PPR TE13 on the season. And yet, both Jack Doyle (62% snaps) and Trey Burton (50%) worked ahead of Alie-Cox (46%) in Week 4. This offense’s target volume is already slim enough; we can’t rely on Alie-Cox as anything more than a low-ceiling and TD-dependent TE2 at best as long as he’s the team’s third-most used option at his own position.

Browns Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: *Whispers* it might be a good time to shop OBJ.

Is OBJ a sell-high candidate? ???? @Ihartitz pic.twitter.com/NoUZY3LAK9

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 6, 2020

A healthy version of Beckham is going to be a problem for any defense to deal with. However, 50-yard rushing scores are going to be tough to come by every week, and the Browns’ No. 1 WR is posting the second-worst efficiency marks of his career in yards per target and yards per route run behind only last season’s train wreck.

Beckham literally said himself a few weeks ago that overwhelming production likely isn’t on the way in 2020:

“For me, one of my biggest growths has come in acceptance in a sense and for me knowing it’s probably not going to be that kind of season [with huge numbers]. Like I always say, my goal is always going to be my goal, and I don’t feel like I’m ever going to fall short of it. Like I said, learning and acceptance, so you set new goals.”

OBJ is playing the Stefon Diggs field-stretcher role in Kevan Stefanski’s offense. This yielded PPR WR19 production for Diggs in 2019, and OBJ is certainly capable of surpassing that mark if he keeps balling out. Still, I’m not ready to assume consistent top-10 production is on the way after seeing anything but that for the better part of the last 13 months. OBJ is my WR14 this week and I’d be happy to trade him to someone that is valuing him like a top-five producer.

Landry made a number of circus catches in Week 4 and even threw for a score. The Browns scoring 49 points with Baker Mayfield throwing for just 165 yards is comical; Landry is eventually going to put up numbers once this offense is forced to throw the ball a bit more. That could certainly happen this week, making the Browns’ stud slot receiver a solid buy-low candidate at the moment. Still, like Beckham, there’s a low-ceiling for everyone involved in this run-first offense.

TE breakdown: Austin Hooper (17 targets) hasn’t been featured that much ahead of No. 2 TE Harrison Bryant (10) through four weeks. Like Landry, bigger days will be on the way for Hooper if Mayfield is ever forced to throw the ball more than 30 times in a game again. Also like Landry, we shouldn’t expect consistent high-end production even once a major bounce-back performance occurs due to this offense’s commitment to #EstablishTheRun.

Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

Broncos Offense

Projected shadow matchups: Jerry Jeudy vs. Jonathan Jones

WR/CB breakdown: Drew Lock (shoulder) was throwing at practice on Thursday and appears to have a real shot at suiting up on Sunday. He’ll be facing a Patriots secondary without No. 1 CB Stephon Gilmore (covid).

The Broncos’ target share is condensed with Courtland Sutton (knee, IR), TE Noah Fant (ankle) and Hamler (hamstring) all banged up. Patrick and Jeudy are both viable fantasy options as the clear-cut top-two receivers in this passing game, although it’s probably best to wait until Week 6 (Dolphins) or Week 7 (Chiefs) before thinking too hard about finding a starting spot for them.

Both Patrick and Jeudy have flashed, particularly the rookie when it comes to his route-running ability. Still, a road trip to face Bill Belichick and company is troubling for a passing game in the hands of a second-year QB with seven starts to his name. It would make sense if the Broncos embrace a run-first offense with Lock coming back from a strained rotator cuff in his throwing shoulder; find another passing game to target.

TE breakdown: Jake Butt, Nick Vannett and Andrew Beck are expected to form a committee during Fant’s absence; none are realistic fantasy options.

Patriots Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: It’s pretty much impossible to trust anyone involved in this passing game as long as Cam Newton (covid) remains sidelined. Each of Edelman (27 targets), Harry (27) and Byrd (22) have been equally involved in the low-volume passing game. The former receiver was fantastic against the Seahawks, but otherwise has struggled with drops and hasn’t had a consistent full-time role. Edelman is my PPR WR30 without Cam and that feels generous.

Neither Harry nor Byrd are deserving of season-long consideration, although their respective $4,300 and $3,000 price tags on DraftKings are two of the better values at the WR position. The Broncos have been smashed by the likes of Jamison Crowder (7-104-0), Corey Davis (7-101-0), Diontae Johnson (8-92-1), Chase Claypool (3-88-1), Scott Miller (7-81-0) and Jeff Smith (5-64-1) alike this season. It’s not a matchup to fear; the volume is just concerning for everyone involved.

TE breakdown: Ryan Izzo has just eight targets through four weeks. He’s well off the fantasy radar.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks

Vikings Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: The Vikings have scored 30 points in three of their four games this season. The only exception was a 17-point loss to the Colts. And yet, Cousins has thrown: 25, 26, 27 and 22 passes in Weeks 1-4, respectively.

OC Gary Kubiak is committed to establishing the run with Dalvin Cook, but his concentrated deep-ball-heavy passing attack has still enabled some solid passing production. Only the Bears and Packers have more pass attempts thrown at least 20 yards downfield through four weeks, and Cousins’ 25% deep-ball rate is the highest mark in the league.

Normally it’s going to be tough to expect tons of fantasy production out of this passing game, but this week’s spot represents as good a time as ever to expect a big game from Cousins and company considering their status as seven-point underdogs in a game with the week’s highest over/under.

Additionally, Jefferson and Thielen present the sort of condensed target share that could continue to enable both to big performances. Only the Chargers (Keenan Allen 35%, Hunter Henry 20%) have a more condensed top-two target share than the Vikings (Thielen 34%, Jefferson 22%). Continue to fire up Thielen as a top-10 option at the position, while Jefferson is on the WR2 borderline and should be started in more lineups than not.

TE breakdown: Nobody else on the Vikings has even 10 targets; Jefferson and Thielen are the only fantasy-viable options in this passing game.

Seahawks Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: All four of the Vikings’ most-used corners rank outside of PFF’s top-65 CBs in passer rating allowed on targets into their coverage. The Vikings rank fourth in PPR per game allowed to opposing WRs and haven’t even had to play the Cowboys yet.

Metcalf and Lockett remain locked in as WR1s. Any start/sit question including them will be met with anger on Twitter (probably not, but c’mon).

One under the radar thought is rostering Moore in the event that either Metcalf or Lockett gets injured. This passing game is too condensed around Metcalf and Lockett to consistently enable a third receiver, but Moore could flirt with some high-end production if either top-WR option is forced to miss time. Moore (35% snaps in Week 4) didn’t play over Freddie Swain (43%) last week, and Josh Gordon (suspended) could feasibly come back at some point, but the Seahawks’ No. 3 WR clearly has what it takes to make the most out of his limited opportunities in this offense. Only Justin Jefferson (17.4) is averaging more yards per target than Moore (17) among 169 players with at least 10 targets this season.

David Moore has been making plays when given the chance pic.twitter.com/j9UcIKYXy2

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 7, 2020

 

TE breakdown: Greg Olsen (56% snaps in Week 4) continues to lose all sorts of work to Will Dissly (43%) and Jacob Hollister (22%). The Vikings are strongest at safety and linebacker; don’t expose your fantasy lineup to these Seahawks tight ends unless we’re talking about a DFS showdown slate.

Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints

Chargers Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: The Justin Herbert experience featured a number of dimes in Week 4.

Justin Herbert making all sorts of plays without Austin Ekeler or Mike Williams and against a good defense was cool pic.twitter.com/fZCkA75RuW

— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) October 5, 2020

Credit to Guyton and Tyron Johnson for getting behind the defense on their respective 70-plus yard scores. Still, everything behind Allen offers a near zero-point floor as long as Mike Williams (hamstring) remains sidelined; nobody other than the Chargers’ long-time No. 1 WR had more than three targets in Week 4.

Allen ranks first in the league in target share (35%) and 10th in air yard share (38%). He’s my overall PPR WR10 on the week and that feels low against a Saints secondary that could again be without their top-two corners Marshon Lattimore (hamstring) and Janoris Jenkins (shoulder, illness).

TE breakdown: Henry is averaging a career-high 9.4 yards per target through four weeks and forms the league’s single-most condensed target-share duo with Allen. Of course, Allen is heavily responsible for this, but positive TD regression remains on the way for the Chargers’ talented TE1. Don’t be surprised if Henry makes it back to the promised land this week against a Saints defense that has allowed an absurd 25 PPR per game to opposing tight ends this season.

Saints Offense

Projected shadow matchups: None

WR/CB breakdown: Drew Brees threw four passes that traveled at least 20 yards downfield in Week 4 after having just three-such attempts in Weeks 1-3 combined. His demise from a fantasy perspective has perhaps been a bit overrated considering he’s been forced to work without one of the NFL’s single-best receivers for the past three weeks. This lesser version of Brees has still produced multiple passing scores or 300-plus passing yards in every game this season, and we should expect enhanced fantasy goodness once Michael Thomas (ankle) returns to action.

Brees’ target distribution in Weeks 2-4 with Thomas sidelined has been as follows:

• Alvin Kamara: 27 targets
• Sanders: 17
• Smith: 16
• Harris: 10
• Jared Cook: 7
• Adam Trautman: 3
• Ty Montgomery: 3
• Josh Hill: 3
• Taysom Hill: 2
• Marquez Callaway: 1
• Michael Burton: 1

Obviously Thomas needs to be in lineups if healthy enough to suit up. I’m still a bit hesitant in treating either Sanders or Smith as sure things, although both warrant top-40 treatment against a banged-up Chargers secondary that is fresh off giving up five scores through the air to TB12 and company.

TE breakdown: Trautman started in Cook’s (groin) absence, but wasn’t targeted and played just 27% of the offense’s snaps. The Saints felt the need to use a third-round pick on Trautman, but Taysom (17) isn’t too far off the rookie (29) in terms of total snaps lined up as an inline TE. None of the Saints’ options behind Cook are worthy of fantasy consideration this week.